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[SMM midday review] colored green manure red thin Shanghai nickel Shanghai tin drop more than 2% black system recovery
Oct 21,2019 12:03CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, October 21, this morning non-ferrous metal market green manure red and thin, as of noon closing, Shanghai copper rose 0.94%, Shanghai zinc rose 0.43%, Shanghai nickel fell 2.54%.

On the macro front, the National Development and Reform Commission announced at a press conference in October this morning: first, the operation of electric power. From the point of view of power generation, from January to September this year, the national industrial power generation increased by 3.0% compared with the same period last year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from January to August. Second, the examination and approval of investment projects. In the third quarter of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission approved a total of 35 fixed assets investment projects, with a total investment of 317.2 billion yuan, of which 24 were approved and 11 approved, mainly in transportation, energy and other industries. Third, the price operation. In terms of consumer prices, CPI rose 2.5 per cent from January to September from a year earlier and has expanded in recent months.

As for copper, the eighth Interactive Summit on spot Futures of Nonferrous Metals in China opened recently. Fu Peng, chief economist of Northeast Securities, delivered a keynote speech on "interest rate, Exchange rate and Commodity Market Outlook" at the meeting. Fu Peng said that commodities represented by copper depend largely on demand, but commodity demand is divided into two main categories: authentic demand and financial demand. The impact of financial demand on prices is critical. In addition, BHP Billiton (BHP), the world's largest miner, said on Monday that it had signed four renewable energy agreements to provide energy support to all its Chilean copper projects from 2021, a move that would reduce energy costs by 20 per cent. In the past, fossil fuels were basically used as energy supply in mines, but with the decline in the cost of wind and solar energy, as well as the increasing pressure from society and shareholders to address climate change, many mining enterprises have switched to renewable energy.

Aluminum, Citic Construction Investment said the fundamentals see alumina prices have rebounded, the cost side has some support. However, the supply of overseas alumina is more adequate, to a certain extent, the internal price is suppressed. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity that stopped production in the early stage of the supply side began to recover gradually, superimposed on the expectation of new production capacity in the fourth quarter, and the pressure on the supply side increased, which was highlighted in November and December. On the inventory side, inventories of aluminum ingots in consumer areas totaled 916000 tons on Thursday, down 29000 tons from last Thursday.

In terms of zinc, CITIC Construction Investment said that at present, the impact of environmental protection and production restrictions is limited, and the production situation of the smelter is better. Under the condition that the processing fee is still high, the production enthusiasm of the smelter is maintained, and the inventory increases slowly with the increase of supply. The market shipment mood is not high, the market overall trading is relatively light. At present, the slight recovery of domestic zinc inventory is one of the important factors in the weakening of zinc price. At the same time, most of the positions are short, the confidence of the bulls is insufficient, and the spot rising water has declined slightly. However, the trend of outer disk zinc is strong, in the case of LME inventory continues to decline, with upward momentum.

In the aspect of lead, the trend of lead in Shanghai is led by lead, the trend of lead in Shanghai has slowed down, and the action on lead in Shanghai can be weakened. From the domestic fundamentals, most of the post-festival primary lead smelting enterprises are in a state of recovery, and the pressure on the supply side has increased in October. The high purchasing enthusiasm of downstream storage enterprises is low, and it is currently at the end of the lead traditional consumption season, and the demand side is weakening. Fundamentals do not have too many factors, Shanghai lead rebound is expected to be limited.

On the black side, iron ore fell 0.57%, while hot coil threads also fell slightly. The black department did not continue last week's sharp decline on the first day of the week, and the performance was fairly stable. The panic in the market seems to have improved. Iron ore Meike futures said that Australian maintenance continued to Brazil arrival port is low, short-term supply-end pressure is small, port inventory last week due to policy interference inventory accumulation, this week may stabilize; demand side, steel mill profit contraction port no shortage of goods, there is no centralized replenishment plan, but low inventory rigid procurement is still resilient; short-term iron ore contradiction or concussion operation.

Crude oil fell slightly in the morning. Russian domestic news agencies reported on Sunday that Russia's crude oil output in September was higher than the target set in its cut-off agreement as the country increased condensate production in preparation for the winter. Russian crude oil production in September fell slightly to 11.25 million barrels a day from 11.29 million barrels a day in August, but still above the target set in the global production agreement.

The new LME Metal Mini Futures quotation launched by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange shows:

Today's stock

Lead: Guangdong market South China lead 16995 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead 20 yuan / ton quotation; South Reserve South 16985-16995 yuan / ton, 1911 contract discount 20-30 yuan / ton; South Reserve Jinsha 16975 yuan / ton, 1911 contract discount 40 yuan / ton. Lead price continues to be weak, regenerated original price difference 500-600 yuan / ton, downstream still gives priority to the purchase of recycled refined lead. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang and other smelters mainly to long single transaction; Jinli 16875 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 100 yuan / ton quotation. Lead price weak shock, downstream procurement is more cautious, market transactions continue a light trend. Other areas such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 16925-16955 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead discount 50 to 20 yuan / ton quotation (traders); Jiangxi copper industry 16975 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead quotation; Anhui bronze crown 17050 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 75 yuan / ton. The revitalization of Yunnan area is 16675 yuan / ton, and the average price of SMM1# lead is 300 yuan / ton. Lead price shock operation, downstream consumption is light, the overall transaction is in the doldrums.

Zinc: Shanghai Zinc mainstream transaction in 19010-19060 yuan / ton, Shuangyan, Huize transaction in 19020-19070 yuan / ton; Shuangyan, Huize reported 130-140 yuan / ton in November, Shuangyan and Huize reported 130-140 yuan / ton in November; Shuangyan and Huize reported 130-140 yuan / ton in November; 18940-18990 yuan / ton in Shuangyan and Huize. Shanghai zinc 1911 shock downward, the first trading session in the morning closed at 18910 yuan / ton. In the first trading session, the morning holder reported an increase of 120 yuan / ton to the 1911 contract, and the mainstream quotation to the SMM net average price discount of 5 yuan / ton to flat water; in the second trading session, the zinc price continued to decline, the holdings raised the water quotation, and the 1911 contract rose 130 yuan / ton. Enter this week, the market quotation is divided into the current monthly ticket and the next monthly ticket quotation, the ordinary zinc brand price difference between the monthly ticket is in 10-20 yuan / ton, the trade market is active, the downstream enterprise meets the bargain to fill the storehouse, but still maintains in the rigid demand inventory, the market overall transaction is still good.

Guangdong zinc mainstream transaction in 18900-18960 yuan / ton, the offer focused on Shanghai zinc 1912 contract discount 30-10 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai stock market discount expanded from 110 yuan / ton to 120 yuan / ton. Refinery shipments are normal, but some traders cherish the sale, the circulation of goods in the market has been slightly tightened. In the morning, the quotation of the cardholder is more scattered, some are reported near the flat water of the 11 contract, and some are quoted near the discount of 20 yuan / ton to the 12 contract. In addition, the holder quotes the monthly ticket at the average price of-10 yuan / ton. Enter the second trading period, with 11,12 contract spread narrowed from-30 yuan / ton to-20 yuan / ton, the market transaction focused on the 12 contract discount of 20 yuan / ton to 10 yuan / ton. Today, the market transaction atmosphere has heated up, mainly due to the issue of tickets, traders contribute to the main trading. Yi Qilin, Cishan, Tiefeng, Mengzi mainstream transactions in 18900-18960 yuan / ton near.

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 19010-20410 yuan / ton, and that of ordinary brands was 19010-19140 / ton. The contract for 1911 rose about 80-180 yuan / ton, and the rising water in Tianjin market expanded from 30 yuan / ton to 50 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai market. Refinery shipments are normal today. In the market, the overall supply of goods remains tight. The quotation of high-priced brand source is concentrated in about 160-180 yuan / ton of 11 liter water, and the quotation of ordinary brand source is about 80-130 yuan / ton of 11 liter water. Disk upward, rising water stalemate, downstream more cautious, poor willingness to buy, superimposed Hebei area because of environmental factors, affect the normal purchase of some enterprises. Overall, today's deal was worse than last Friday. Zi Zijin, Hongye, Bailing, Chi Hong, Xikuang, etc., were traded in the vicinity of 19010-19140 yuan / ton, while Li Zijin, Chi Hong and Hongye were traded in 18960-19090 yuan / ton.

Nickel: today, Russian nickel is 300 yuan higher than Shanghai Nickel 1911 to 400 yuan / ton, and Jinchuan Nickel is 500-600 yuan / ton higher than Shanghai Nickel 1911 contract. Today, after the opening of nickel prices, quickly fell below 60 antenna support, to 128800 near to stop falling consolidation, but the market trading atmosphere is light, because the supply of negotiable goods is tight, it is difficult for traders to replenish warehouses at low prices, and downstream in the falling market, more in the wait and see. Subsequently, nickel prices continued to fall to around 127800 to stop falling fluctuations, for spot trading stimulus is limited, the whole morning market transaction atmosphere is weak. Jinchuan's ex-factory price is 128500 yuan / ton, 2800 yuan / ton lower than last Friday. The mainstream transaction is in the range of 128300 yuan / ton to 128600 yuan / ton.

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