Barclays: Copper and Oil Price to Slip in 2018

This week, the SMM survey covered the production and sales conditions of major domestic medium and large copper rod makers. The overall operating rate was 80.92%, up 6.03 percentage points MoM, exceeding the expected value by 1.11 percentage points, and up 11.59 percentage points YoY. (Surveyed enterprises: 21, capacity: 7.83 million mt). The specific situation is as follows...

Global economy is recovering, and the US liquidity contraction is expected to strengthen. When the US dollar, measured by the constant value, appreciates, the absolute price of copper fell (relative concept); the depreciation of the non-US currency suppressed purchase demand and also suppressed demand. The appreciation of the US dollar improves the production enthusiasm of non-US copper-producing regions. As copper is priced in US dollar, the appreciation of the US dollar will lower the production costs. Most of the copper-producing areas are in South America and Southeast Asia.

SHFE nonferrous metals broadly rose for the most part on Wednesday June 23 with investors awaiting key Purchasing Managers' Indexes from the euro zone.

SHFE nonferrous metals broadly closed higher across the board on Tuesday June 22, triggered by the Fed's updated inflation projections and a shortening of its interest rate hike schedule.

SHFE nonferrous metals broadly fell on Monday June 21, following jitters in global markets over the more hawkish tone from the US Federal Reserve last week.

LME base metals closed mixed in the overnight trading last Friday, as the expanding inflation and rising US dollar weighed on the market, but short supply still supported the prices. SHFE metals basically went down.

LME and SHFE non ferrous metals all declined in yesterday’s overnight trading as Fed officials implied to raise interest rates in advance and increased the excess reserve ratio.

LME base metals all fell in the overnight trading yesterday, as US dollar index went up slightly, and the plummeting US May retail sales brought negative sentiments to the market. Meanwhile, SHFE metals closed mixed amid the policy control.

Oil is one of those commodities where the price is published continuously. Crude oil is the most traded commodity in the world (followed by coffee). The question is how does knowing the oil price help in assessing and managing your investments? Oil is crucial to our modern economy. And while we may feel that the world is going greener and petroleum-run vehicles are becoming old school, virtually everything that we use on a daily basis, whether it’s one’s car, air travel, plastics, every-day consumer products, the vast majority of these are derived from oil and depend heavily on the global oil supply chain.

Operating rate across Chinese copper tube and pipe manufacturers continued to increase in June