SMM, 20 Oct:
With the stimulus of various consumption policies in the automobile industry, the production and sales data of the automobile industry in September showed a marked rebound from the previous month, and the year-on-year decline in sales in the industry was also narrower than that of the previous month. However, due to the substitution effect between traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have shown negative growth for the third consecutive month since July, and the rate of decline from the same period last year has been increasing every month.
In September, the production and sale of new energy vehicles in China reached 89000 and 80, 000 respectively, down 29.9 percent and 34.2 percent respectively over the same period last year. From the perspective of sub-models, with the end of the transitional period of new energy bus subsidy policy, the current new energy vehicles return to the market structure with passenger vehicles as the core. In September, the output of new energy passenger vehicles was 80,000, accounting for 89.9 percent of the total output.
For the fourth quarter of the expectations of new energy vehicles, we believe that due to the same period last year, the industry believes that the time of subsidy retreating will be ahead of schedule, the end of the year's "rush" will be strong, the tail-warping effect is obvious. However, this year, a large number of new energy vehicle demand has been overdrawn in advance before the end of the subsidy transition period in the middle of the year, superimposed on the "national five" to "national six" policy has a substitution effect on new energy vehicles, resulting in no significant improvement in the new energy vehicle market since the second half of the year. According to the current annual plan of the mainframe plant for each model, production expectations have been reduced by different ranges, and given that the mainframe factory will still seize the opportunity of subsidies this year, we still maintain the previous forecast of 1.4 million production for the whole of 2019.
According to the SMM new energy database, the total installed capacity of power batteries in September was 3.95GWhH, an increase of 15.5% over the previous month and a sharp drop of 97.4% from the same period last year. In terms of battery type, the installed capacity of ternary batteries was 2.9GWhT, accounting for 73.3%, down 3.9% from the previous month, while lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 0.95 GWH, accounting for 24.4%, up 3.3% from the previous month. From different models, the installed capacity of new energy passenger vehicles is 3.03GWha, accounting for 76.5%; the installed capacity of new energy passenger cars is 0.74GWha, accounting for 18.7%; the installed capacity of new energy special vehicles is 0.19GWha, accounting for 4.7%.
After the "rush loading" of new energy buses in August, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery declined, but based on its own cost advantages, lithium iron phosphate battery was gradually favored by the main machine factory, and the proportion of installed capacity began to rise in September.
Let's take a look at the market share of power batteries in September. In the ranking of power battery installed capacity in September, the market share of Ningde era decreased slightly, accounting for 55.7%. In addition, AVIC Lithium Power jumped to third place this month with its installation of new energy for Guangzhou Automobile and Changan Automobile. In September, the installed capacity of CR10, CR5 and CR3 was 92.1%, 82.6% and 74%, respectively.
SMM Cobalt Lithium Research team
Hong Lu 021-51666814
Qin Jingjing 021-51666828