[SMM Daily Review] Zinc rose nearly 1% in Shanghai, non-ferrous red and green iron ore rebounded in the afternoon, crude oil rose more than 3%.

SMM, Oct. 11: today's non-ferrous metals market has its own ups and downs, as of the end of the day, Shanghai zinc rose nearly 1%, Shanghai nickel rose 0.9%, Shanghai copper rose nearly 7%, Shanghai aluminum fell nearly 0.8%, Shanghai tin fell more than 0.3%, and Shanghai lead fell slightly.

On the copper side, Ye Jianhua, chief analyst for the copper industry at the 2019 China Copper Industry chain Summit and Copper Rod Industry Summit, said that the main reason was the massive expansion of domestic smelter projects and the lack of support from domestic demand. At present, China's copper consumption has entered a slow growth range, from this year's research on the operating rate of copper processing enterprises are weakening, especially in the third quarter of the performance is more obvious. Inventory, the third quarter began to enter the domestic accumulation of the market, but due to the disturbance of the supply side, the current pace of accumulation is very slow, the performance of fundamental pressure is not obvious. In the long run, focus on consumption, especially grid investment and marginal improvements in cars. "[SMM interpretation] the general trend of supply in the copper market has been set to go out of the warehouse at the same rate of weak consumption.

On the aluminium side, Chinalco delayed the commissioning of the Boffa bauxite mine in Guinea. At the China Mining Conference (China Mining conference) in Tianjin on Thursday, Wang Dongbo, director of mineral resources at Chinalco, said the commissioning of the Boffa bauxite project in Guinea had been delayed until the first quarter of 2020. The project is expected to produce 12 million tons of aluminum ore a year, and production was scheduled to begin by the end of the year. But Wang Dongbo said climate problems in Guinea had led to delays in production, but he did not elaborate. Zambia acknowledges US $215 million tax rebate owed to major mining companies Alcoa delayed production of Boffa bauxite in Guinea

Nickel, Shanghai zinc shock strong. According to SMM, Skorpion, owned by Vedanta, will close its zinc smelter for six months, affecting production by more than 40, 000 tons, while domestic zinc ingots' social inventory will fall again after the festival, strengthening expectations of destocking during the peak consumption season and supporting zinc prices. At the macro level, the first day of the new round of trade negotiations ended, according to foreign media reports that the negotiations were progressing better than expected, and macro risk appetite picked up. There are also sources that DMCI Holdings said in a regulatory filing on Thursday that the Philippine Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources had lifted the moratorium on nickel miner Zambales Diversified Metals. "[SMM Analysis] has the Philippine nickel mining market been affected by the lifting of the suspension of the ban on nickel mines by DMCI's nickel miners?

In the black system, threads fell by more than 0.1%, hot coils and stainless steel by 1%, coke by nearly 0.5%, coking coal flat and iron ore by nearly 1.9%. Thread Baocheng futures said that market confidence is still poor in the short term, thread futures or continued volatility. In the recent period of thread steel price pressure operation, on the one hand, under the pressure of steel plant return to production tide, the increase of supply pressure makes the market sentiment tend to be cautious. On the other hand, the medium-term demand side pessimistic expectations are strong, futures rebound is also a lot of resistance. However, recently Tangshan environmental protection production restrictions there are signs of tightening, but the market is also observing the actual implementation and other regional policy trends, thread prices are expected to continue to shock operation. On the iron ore side, iron ore arrivals have remained high in the last two weeks, and port inventories have increased significantly during the holiday season. In the short term, due to the low volume of Australian shipments in mid-and late September, the volume of goods delivered in the next two weeks will decline, coupled with the low replenishment of steel mills, the low pressure of short-term inventory, and the incremental space for ore demand, the fundamentals of the short-term mining market are still good, which is conducive to the maintenance of a relatively strong deep discount price. However, in the extended cycle, with the end of BHP and RIO Rio Tinto overhaul, Australian shipments will return to high levels, supply recovery will bear pressure on mining prices, in the future, without strong demand support, mining prices are expected to continue to strengthen.

Crude oil surged nearly 3.3% in the last period. Crude oil rose sharply this afternoon, up as much as 4% at one point. The blow-up behind this should have been a spill at noon near the port of Saudi Jeddah by an oil tanker owned by Iran's national oil company. Rida Futures said the attack on an Iranian tanker sent crude oil higher today. The news is that OPEC released its monthly report, OPEC crude oil production in September fell month-on-month, Saudi production fell 1.28 million barrels per day to 8.56 million barrels per day, the crude oil supply gap in the third quarter was the largest in several years, crude oil demand exceeded production by 2.5 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and OPEC lowered its forecast for global crude oil demand growth to 980000 barrels per day in 2019. According to the Russian satellite news agency, citing the Iranian student news agency (ISNA) Express, on the morning of October 11, local time, an Iranian oil tanker was attacked and caught fire near the Red Sea, 60 miles from the port of Saudi Jeddah, causing damage to two main facilities of the tanker and causing an oil spill to flow into the Red Sea. Iran's "technical expert" view that the incident is likely to be a "terrorist act." International crude oil futures prices showed a volatile recovery, the Asian market continued to rise. Shanghai crude oil futures rose, compared with Brent crude oil rose about $4.80 / barrel, Shanghai crude oil rising water is at a high level.

The status of today's US dollar denominated small metals contracts on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is as follows:

Cash flow today

Oil and oil collective rise soybean meal won the "gold king": three major stock indexes today crazy gold 3.6 billion, and commodity futures, soybean meal has become a well-deserved "gold king", oil and oil collective rise, of which soybean meal received 621 million financial support.

Brief comment of SMM analyst on Oct. 11

Copper: today, the Shanghai copper main contract 1912 opened at 46970 yuan / ton in the morning, then the center of gravity remained stable between 46910 and 46980 yuan / ton, and then slightly pulled up to the highest level of 47060 yuan / ton in the day. After a small rise, the center of gravity slipped to 46950 yuan / ton near shock finishing, closing at 46910 yuan / ton, up 310 yuan / ton, up 0.67%. Today, the main contract position of Shanghai Copper increased by 9.4 million hands to 212000 hands, the trading volume increased by 48000 hands to 137000 hands, the daily position of Shanghai Copper Index decreased by 22000 hands to 549000 hands, and the trading volume increased by 55000 hands to 301000 hands. Today, the Shanghai copper plate continued to maintain the night high level, mainly due to the improvement in Sino-US trade sentiment, market confidence is optimistic, Shanghai copper continued to maintain stability at the 47000 yuan / ton level, but as the global macroeconomic situation is still on the low side, we need to guard against the impact of falling optimism on the disk, and continue to pay attention to the results of today's Sino-US trade negotiations. At present, Shanghai copper returned to Yang for the first time after three consecutive yin, the MACD green column also continued to shorten, the technical side is slightly good, waiting for the outer plate guidance in the evening to test whether Shanghai copper can continue to stand at the 46900 yuan / ton level.

Lead: within days, the Shanghai lead main force 1911 contract short opened at 16965 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, part of the short entered to suppress the lead price to 16835 yuan / ton, the latter part accepted the bargain, Shanghai lead rose back to 16895 yuan / ton, near the end of the day, Shanghai lead tried to strengthen, but the above averages suppressed the pace of uplink, resulting in Shanghai lead up to no results, finally closed at 16900 yuan / ton, down 15 yuan / ton, down 0.09%. Positions were reduced by 1124 to 49846. Shanghai lead closed in the small negative line, the lower 60-day moving average has a strong support, taking into account the outer plate lead into the European period continued to pull up, expected at night or a little lead trend in Shanghai, but the upward space is limited.

Zinc: today, Shanghai Zinc completed the main force of the month, Shanghai Zinc 1911 contract opened at 19010 yuan / ton, Shanghai zinc briefly touched 19015 yuan / ton at the beginning of the day, and then fell back to 18930 yuan / ton. the support of the 20th moving average appeared. Shanghai zinc returned to the daily moving average of 18980 yuan / ton, recording a V shape. In the afternoon, the long head left the Shanghai zinc frustrated downlink, the end of the day slightly pulled up, closed up 18975 yuan / ton, up 185 yuan / ton from the previous trading. Up 0.98%, trading volume decreased by 17584 hands to 186000 hands, position decreased by 5352 hands to 149000 hands.

Intraday Shanghai zinc main force 1912 contract opened at 19005 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day Shanghai zinc tried to test the suppression strength of Wanjiu pass, failed to make a trip, fell back to 18960 yuan / ton, then again upward pressure fell back to 18920 yuan / ton, narrow shock operation, afternoon more empty, boost Shanghai zinc uplink to 18970 yuan / ton near, but failed to stick to, Shanghai zinc fell to 18940 yuan / ton, the end of the day closed up slightly. It closed up at 18960 yuan / ton, up 190 yuan / ton, or 1.01%, from the previous session. Trading volume increased by 23000 hands to 134000 hands, and positions increased by 10340 hands to 153000 hands. Within days, Shanghai zinc received a small negative line, with the shadow line under the 20-day moving average, the MACD index formed a golden fork, indicating that Shanghai zinc still exists on the action energy. Domestic three places social inventory recorded a decline in the day, indicating that the lower reaches of consumption power after the National Day is still more optimistic, superimposed macro news slightly warmer, bulls enter the market to boost zinc prices, however, under the strong suppression of the upper Wanjiu pass, Shanghai zinc action can be considered temporarily, pay attention to the support strength of the lower EMA at night.

Nickel: Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract opened at 136980 yuan / ton today. At the beginning of the day, the indoor shock fell and fell by 135130 yuan / tonne. Subsequently, the short position was reduced, Shanghai nickel rebounded and repaired, and returned to the line of 137000 yuan / ton, forming a V-shaped trend. In the afternoon, the Shanghai nickel pressure 5-day moving average, the center of gravity fluctuated around 136800 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 136900 yuan / ton, an increase of 660 yuan / ton, or 0.48%, compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day. Trading volume decreased by 90, 000 hands to 548000 hands, and positions increased by 3000 hands to 308000 hands. Shanghai nickel closed in the small negative line, the whole is still in the 5 / 10 moving average of 137000 yuan / ton near a narrow range of concussion, continue to pay attention to the Shanghai nickel at 137000 yuan / ton level of concussion.

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