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[SMM Daily Review] non-ferrous stagnant Shanghai tin rose more than 1.8% black iron diving nearly 3%
Oct 9,2019 16:28CST
translation
Source:SMM
Shanghai tin rose more than 1.8%, Shanghai nickel slightly red, Shanghai lead fell nearly 1.7%, Shanghai copper fell 0.6%, Shanghai aluminum fell nearly 0.4%, Shanghai zinc fell more than 0.2%. Thread, hot coil closed down more than 0.4%, 0.2%, coke, coking coal fell more than 1.2%, 0.7%, iron ore closed down nearly 2.9%. Crude oil rose nearly 2.8% in the previous period.
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, Oct. 9-by the end of the day, Shanghai and tin were up more than 1.8%, Shanghai nickel was slightly red, Shanghai lead was down nearly 1.7%, Shanghai copper was down 0.6%, Shanghai aluminum was down nearly 0.4%, and Shanghai zinc was down more than 0.2%.

On the copper side, Lun copper rose slightly, but Shanghai copper hit a one-month low dragged down by trade concerns between China and the United States. Copper futures 1911, the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, fell 0.6 per cent to 46600 yuan a tonne. At one point, the contract hit $46520 a tonne, its lowest level since Sept. 4, following an overnight decline in the London market. Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said on the 8th that China is strongly dissatisfied with and firmly opposes the inclusion of the Public Security Bureau of China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region and eight Chinese enterprises in the list of export control entities, and urges the United States to immediately correct its mistakes, rescind the relevant decisions, and stop interfering in China's internal affairs. "it has become a bit difficult for the negotiations to continue or get to the ideal stage," analysts said. The market had expected it would take a long time to reach an agreement, "he said.

Zinc, recently Shanghai zinc main force 1911 contract low open shock, continue low consolidation. During the period, the main part was weighed down by the strong performance of the dollar index, while the World Bank lowered its economic growth forecast for 2019, and the macro side remained relatively short. On the other hand, the market pays attention to the process of Sino-US trade consultation, and there is still uncertainty. Fundamentals, LME zinc inventory fell for 6 days, but the market shipment sentiment is not high, the overall market trading is relatively light, the market spot rising water is relatively strong. Shanghai zinc shock consolidation. After the festival, the upstream and downstream of the north have entered a stage of gradual recovery, and in the short term, the financial attribute of the zinc market is still greater than that of the industry. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said today that the Federal Reserve will soon begin to expand its balance sheet again, and the market forecast that the probability of cutting interest rates will soar this month. The latest round of Sino-US trade negotiations is coming, and we need to wait and see for macro expectations to be clear.

On the nickel side, there has been a narrow concussion of nickel in Shanghai in recent days. After the festival, LME nickel stocks continued to bottom, as of October 8, local time LME nickel stocks less than 120000 tons, in the future nickel market gap expected, electrolytic nickel extrusion risk increased, LME0-3 nickel rose to $104 / ton high, at the same time, the domestic port nickel mine prices continue to strengthen after the festival, 1.65% of Indonesian mines rose nearly 60% from the July low, supporting Nife prices.

In the black series, threads and hot rolls closed down more than 0.4% and 0.2%, coke and coking coal fell more than 1.2% and 0.7%, and iron ore closed down nearly 2.9%. However, recently, a number of listed housing enterprises have released September sales data show that September top 100 housing enterprises sales strong rewarming, year-on-year, month-on-month growth is significant. The figure clearly exceeded market expectations. A number of listed housing companies saw their share prices soar yesterday, affected by better-than-expected sales in September. A number of real estate enterprises told reporters that in the fourth quarter, real estate enterprises will make every effort to sprint the annual performance target, do not rule out the "price for volume", taking into account the low base in the same period of the fourth quarter of last year, the performance of leading real estate enterprises in the fourth quarter is still expected, there is little pressure to achieve the annual sales target. In the aspect of iron ore, affected by the shutdown and limited production before the festival, most steel mills overhaul the blast furnace, the iron ore consumption has decreased, considering that the inventory of the steel plant before the festival is not high, with the recovery of part of the production capacity after the festival, the steel mill still has the action of replenishing the storehouse. On the supply side, Australia Mining has an overhaul plan in October, and shipments are expected to rise significantly, while Brazilian shipments are limited, and port stocks are expected to recover quickly for a short time, but it is necessary to pay attention to the decline in overseas hot metal demand and the amount transferred to China; overall, iron ore is expected to continue to rebound after the festival, and pay attention to the impact of timber prices in the later stage. Hongyuan futures said futures were rising or the market was overly pessimistic about threads. After the accumulation of inventory after the festival, pollution weather warning lifted, the mood is inevitably bearish. But real demand is still good and inventories are expected to continue to degrade. The decline in iron ore shipments from Australia and Pakistan is expected to affect subsequent arrivals, and iron ore prices are volatile in the short term. Coke disk grinding bottom, waiting to stabilize.

Crude oil rose nearly 2.8% in the previous period. It is understood that the international community needs to pay attention to the development of the situation in Ecuador in recent days. Platts energy analysts say Ecuador is at risk of 1/3 production disruptions, of which the biggest victims are refineries on the west coast of the United States, which are already facing severe shortages of heavy crude oil. Ecuador's state oil company, Petroamazonas, estimated on Tuesday that it could lose about 165000 barrels a day, or 1/3 barrels, of crude oil production as a result of "insecurity" in its oil fields as a result of anti-austerity protests, the Ministry of Energy said on Tuesday. Ecuador's heavy crude oil is seen as an important substitute for heavy crude oil after US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. In fact, the U. S. API data released in the early hours of recent crude oil stocks increased, but gasoline and refining depots significantly reduced. The possibility of supply shortages has been exacerbated by the recent risk of production disruptions in Iraq and the lack of spare production in Saudi Arabia. The (EIA) of the United States Energy Information Agency will release the official weekly report on crude oil stocks at 22:30 this evening.

The new LME Metal Mini Futures quotation launched by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange shows:

Capital flow

Lift the impact of insurance, iron ore outflow of more than 4 billion funds: affected by the holiday margin adjustment, today's futures market funds showed a large outflow, iron ore outflow of 4.163 billion. Precious metals trend eye-catching, Shanghai gold outflow of 3.915 billion funds. Only coke is a maverick, with an inflow of 1.16 billion dollars.

Brief comment of SMM analyst on Oct. 9

Copper: today, the Shanghai copper main contract 1912 opened in the morning at 46630 yuan / ton, the opening is slightly upward, the center of gravity in 46700 yuan / ton slightly stabilized, close to the midday center of gravity fell about 30 yuan / ton, hovering around 46670 yuan / ton, afternoon disk continued to rebound, all the way to the day's highest point 46730 yuan / ton, the tail continued to decline and closed at 46640 yuan / ton, down 280 yuan / ton, down 0.6%. Today, the daily position of the main contract of Shanghai Copper increased by 7910 hands to 200000 hands, the trading volume increased by 26000 hands to 91000 hands, and the position of Shanghai Copper 2001 contract increased by 7190 hands to 76000 hands. Shanghai copper index positions increased by 13000 hands to 557000 hands, trading volume increased by 47000 hands to 259000 hands. At present, the structure of the disk is about 1910 in the current month and about 1911 in the recent month, and the price difference of Back, is about 20 yuan. Today, the center of gravity of copper in Shanghai continues to remain low, mainly due to the weak macroeconomic market dominated by copper, and the superimposed dollar remains high to depress copper prices, and the market is waiting for the minutes of the Fed meeting to further judge the trend of the dollar, thus affecting copper. Today, Shanghai copper collection entity shade line, has lost all moving average support, MACD index green column elongated, the technical performance is bearish. At night, waiting for the outer plate to guide, test whether Shanghai copper can continue to stand at 46500 yuan / ton level.

Nickel: Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract opened at 136710 yuan / ton today, before noon, Shanghai nickel pressure 3-day moving average 137000 yuan / ton level, the center of gravity around the daily average 136800 yuan / ton first-line range. In the afternoon, Shanghai nickel weakened slightly, fluctuating within a narrow range below the daily moving average, and finally closed at 136740 yuan / tonne. The settlement price was the same on the previous trading day, with a 5000 increase in position to 297000 hands and a decrease in trading volume from 14000 to 312000 hands. The Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract had a capital flow of 745 million yuan today, and the Shanghai Nickel Index today had a total capital outflow of 2.259 billion yuan. Shanghai Nickel 1912 closed at the Xiao Yin line today, with a 5-day moving average of 137000 yuan / ton above, paying attention to whether Shanghai Nickel can remain stable at 137000 yuan / ton in the evening.

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