8.6 minutes of SMM internal aluminum morning meeting

Market surface: overnight aluminum recorded five consecutive yin, a low of 1760 US dollars / ton refresh the lowest price since June 18, down 7 US dollars / ton, down 0.39%, Shanghai aluminum closed at 13885 yuan / ton, closed at cross, up 5 yuan / ton, up 0. 04 per cent.

Macro: under the background of the continuous intensification of trade frictions between China and the United States, China's onshore and offshore RMB both break 7, and US stocks and bonds are double bears. At the same time, the pmi data of European countries are mostly better than expected to pressure the US dollar. Overnight comprehensive factors lead to a sharp rise in market risk aversion. Gold as a risk aversion attribute is negatively related to the US dollar assets skyrocketing, while other overseas commodities such as crude oil, agricultural products, and non-ferrous metals are often sold off. The tariff Commission of the State Council will not exclude import tariffs on purchases of US agricultural products concluded after August 3, and relevant Chinese enterprises have suspended the purchase of US agricultural products.

Fundamentals: 1) yesterday SMM statistics of the country's main consumer electrolytic aluminum inventory data, Monday compared with last Thursday down 2, 000 tons, stock of 1.038 million tons, of which Hangzhou region fell the most, to 5, 000 tons. 2) Shanxi Zhaofeng Aluminum Alumina Plant was shut down recently, with an operating capacity of 700000 tons before the shutdown. 3) according to foreign news, Rusal suspended the operation of the Achinsk aluminum oxide plant and evacuated all personnel except the necessary personnel, due to a fire at a nearby military base and heard of explosions.

Spot end: yesterday morning, the transaction price between Wuxi and Wuxi was between 13830 yuan and 13840 yuan / ton, about 20 yuan to 30 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as last Friday. Aluminum rose sharply in the second trading stage, and rose all the way. The prices of the two places began to focus on 13860 to 13880 yuan / ton, and the price of Hangzhou was quoted between 13860 and 13880 yuan / ton in the morning. With the sharp rise in aluminum prices, the prices of the two places began to focus on 13860 to 13880 yuan / ton, and the price in Hangzhou was quoted at 13860 to 13880 yuan / ton in the morning. With the big rise in aluminum prices, the prices of the two places began to focus on 13860 to 13880 yuan / ton. Hangzhou local holders cherish the sale began to wait and see, the shipment is not much, the price is not much. Yesterday morning, traders and middlemen in East China market were active, but the market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, with a small number of shipments, slightly higher prices, a sharp rise in aluminum prices in the later period, and some middlemen were more optimistic about the future market. There was a significant increase in the number of recipients, but at this time the actual transaction has not been done as soon as possible. Downstream manufacturers still have some replenishment today Monday, but the activity is not obvious compared with traders.

Summary: although some electrolytic aluminum plants are put into production, it is expected that the main aluminum plants will be put into production in the fourth quarter. At present, the overall supply pressure of electrolytic aluminum is relatively limited, and it is expected that the short-term aluminum will maintain a slightly stronger trend of concussion. Under the expectation of accelerating the storage market brought about by consumption in the peak season in September, the pullback can gradually close down its position in the position of 13500 to 13800 yuan / ton, and the positive position of the contract of 0912 is recommended to be closed step by step. Internal and external arbitrage positions are not recommended for new opening, and do not have strong logical support for the time being.

(SMM Xuman 021 51595898)