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[SMM exclusive] in May, the final value of the PMI composite index for the nickel downstream industry increased slightly from a month earlier and was better than expected.
translation
09:33AM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM May 31-the final value of the PMI composite index for the nickel downstream industry in July was 49.18%, an increase of 5.43 percentage points over June, slightly below the line of prosperity and decline.

In July, the comprehensive production index increased by 9.61 percentage points to 48.92%, slightly below the line but better than the expected value of 41.97%. The production index of 48.41% in July was 8.37% higher than that of the previous month, which was still lower than the line of prosperity and decline, and the output of 300 series of individual manufacturers decreased during the month, and the range was not obvious. The production index of alloy casting industry is 35.60%, which continues to be much lower than the line of prosperity and withered. Due to the influence of high temperature weather and environmental protection in some areas, the production of some enterprises is limited. In addition, the recovery of the high-nickel battery sector has boosted the battery industry, with a small increase in production from a small number of factories this month, but demand for the industry as a whole has not yet fully recovered.

The composite new orders index for July was 48.24%, up 9.7 percentage points from June, still below the line but higher than expected by 42.58%. Among them, the stainless steel industry July new order index 47.60%, stainless steel passive rise in nickel prices, steel mills are still facing greater pressure. The performance of the alloy casting industry is poor, the orders of the downstream household appliances and container industries are slightly lower than the same period last year, the order situation of some special steel is poor, and the downstream demand is weak. The new order index of the battery industry improved, at 67.53%, much higher than the previous value of 12.63% and the expected value of 42.33%. Although the demand of the whole industry has not yet fully recovered, the demand of high nickel battery plate is still good.

In July, the composite raw material inventory index was 49.96%, almost unchanged from the previous value of 49.32%. Among them, the alloy casting industry and other industries raw material inventory decline, due to the poor downstream order situation, raw material procurement is also reduced, the standing inventory cycle is shortened.

The composite inventory index rose 1.59 percentage points to 49.59% in July, below expectations of 50%. Among them, the stainless steel industry in July product inventory index 49.65%, compared with the previous value of 49.22% almost unchanged, stainless steel is currently in the tipping point from storage to storage. The battery industry product inventory index is 48.35%, a sharp increase from the previous value of 12.63%. After the recovery of demand, battery enterprises into the market to replenish the warehouse. In addition, the inventory index of products in other industries was 46.86%, down from the previous value of 67.49%, as inventory of products warmed up by orders fell.

By industry:

Nickel downstream sub-industry PMI sub-index for July

Detailed values are shown in the following table:

The final value of PMI composite index of stainless steel industry in July was 48.90%, which was lower than the line of prosperity and decline, 4.62% higher than that in June and 2.95% higher than expected. The highest absolute value in July is still the purchase price index, which is 95.62%, an increase of 6.33% from 89.29% in June, and a huge gap from the expected 25.96%. The main reason is that nickel prices rose unexpectedly in July with the support of funds, and the increase of ferronickel, which is more commonly used in stainless steel plants, is relatively smaller than that of pure nickel. Matching the price increase of stainless steel can make the steel mill profit performance is OK, but whether can keep the high price in August will face the bigger challenge. The production index of 48.41% was 8.37% higher than that of the previous month, which was still lower than the line of prosperity and decline. The output of 300 series of individual manufacturers decreased during the month, and the purchasing volume index of 51.26% increased by 0.45% compared with the previous month, which was related to the increase of nickel-iron extracurricular production by individual manufacturers. The new order index is 47.60% up 8.37% from the previous month. After the passive rise in nickel prices for stainless steel, steel mills are still under great pressure to ship, but stocks have not been further accumulated. Stainless steel is currently at the tipping point of sawing from storage to storage.

The initial value of PMI composite index of stainless steel industry in August was 49.19%, which was lower than the line of prosperity and decline, and increased by 6.00% compared with July. Most operators believe that August will still be a month when stainless steel will face greater shipping pressure. In the traditional off-season, the downstream of stainless steel will be purchased on demand, but the supply of goods on the market is still abundant, and the market is difficult to say prosperity. However, with the approach of the traditional autumn peak season, there are still some hopes for the later downstream consumption. In addition, although the impact of high-priced raw materials purchased by stainless steel plants on costs will gradually show in July, if some of the increases in the previous period can be maintained, stainless steel mills still have a small profit margin. At present, it seems that steel mills have not taken the initiative to significantly reduce production. The initial production index for August was 49.10%. In terms of the purchase price index, the initial value in August is 69.66%. Market participants have some differences under the price point at the end of the month. Large stainless steel plants have strong demand for ferronickel and are basically more active in purchasing. And the orders for nickel iron plants in August have basically been finalized in early July, and the expected prices are still supported, but at the same time, some operators expect this wave of bulls to come to an end, if their funds gradually withdraw. Nickel prices are likely to fall back from their highs in August.

In July, the final value of PMI composite index of electroplating industry was 49.82%, slightly lower than the line of prosperity and decline, basically in line with expectations. The electroplating industry basically started normal in July, and the comprehensive indexes of production index and new order index in July were 49.67%, which was basically stable compared with June, and there was no obvious bright spot in the downstream consumption of electroplating. Only a few small factories reported that the orders in July were slightly worse, and the medium and large downstream feedback orders remained basically stable.

The initial value of PMI composite index of electroplating industry in August was 49.7%, of which the production index and new order index were 49.45%. According to the downstream reaction, the situation of electroplating industry converged in July and basically maintained stable production.

The final value of the alloy industry PMI composite index was 41.39% in July, better than expected, and still below the rise and fall line, down 1.24% from the June alloy industry PMI composite index. The month-on-month decrease was mainly dragged down by the production index, new order index and purchase volume index. In July, the alloy industry production index, new order index, purchase volume index decreased by 0.85%, downstream home appliances, container industry orders fell slightly compared with the same period last year, downstream demand is weak. The order situation of some special steel is poor, the purchase of raw materials is also reduced accordingly, and the standing inventory cycle is shortened.

The initial value of the PMI composite index for the alloy industry in August was 40.57%, which is expected to be 0.82% lower than that in July. The progress of consumption in the alloy industry is expected to weaken in August, except for the impact of high temperature weather, environmental protection in some areas, affecting the production of some enterprises. The production index, new order index and purchasing volume index are expected to decrease by 2.75% to 40.57% in July compared with the previous month, located under the line of prosperity and decline.

The final value of the battery industry PMI composite index in July was 59.97 per cent, up 34.53 per cent from the end of the previous month and higher than the expected 41.43 per cent. Production at a small number of factories have recovered this month, mainly on the back of the recovery of the high-nickel battery sector and after a dismal decline in new energy subsidies, although demand for the industry as a whole has not yet fully recovered. This month's production index, new order index and product inventory index all increased to 69.18%, 67.53% and 48.35% respectively.

The initial value of the battery industry PMI composite index in August was 53.85%, which is again higher than the line of prosperity and decline, production and new orders are expected to continue to recover.

In July, the final value of the PMI composite index for other industries was 50.63%, again above the line of prosperity and decline, up 1.01% from the final value of the previous month and higher than the expected 47.81%. New orders from some factories in other industries, including nickel wire and nickel mesh, increased, with the new order index returning to 53.14% above the line, while raw material inventories fell due to excessive absolute prices, with a raw material index of 46.86%.

The initial value of the PMI composite index for other industries is expected to be 51.87% in August, as orders improved this month and the production index is likely to rise next month.

Initial value of PMI downstream of nickel in August:

The initial value of PMI in the lower reaches of nickel in August was 49.52%, which was 0.34% higher than the final value in July.

              

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