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[2019.7.26 Zinc internal morning meeting] spot rising water may decline Shanghai zinc weak finishing within a day
Jul 29,2019 09:29CST
translation
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

On the 29th of SMM7,

 

Zinc Morning meeting: macro: as the United States and China negotiate in Shanghai this week, Trump claims that China may have to wait until after the 2020 US election to sign a trade deal, and instructs trade representatives to put pressure on the WTO to challenge China's status as a developing country. Us GDP growth slowed to 2.1 per cent in the second quarter, higher than economists had expected, thanks to better-than-expected consumer spending, but weak business investment and exports highlighted risks or supported the Fed's rate cut this week.

 

Fundamentals: last Friday's spot review:

 

Shanghai: within a month, the trading of long orders basically ended yesterday, coupled with the light willingness of traders to trade between them near the end of the month. Although the market price is lower than yesterday, but the premium remains weak. After 80% of the early tentative quotations, the prices will be concentrated between 70 and 80, and 60% for the next month. The mainstream quotation in the market is mainly 5% lower than the average price. Shuangyan quotation is basically the same as the ordinary, Chihong due to the supply of fewer quotations between 100 and 120. Entering the second trading period, the trade transaction is still cold, the current month ticket transaction 70, next month ticket transaction 60 main. Near the weekend, the intention of replenishing the bank is getting better, and the transaction of the downstream is slightly better. The overall transaction of today is weaker than that of yesterday.

 

Guangdong: Guangdong 0 # zinc mainstream transaction in 19120 19160 yuan / ton, Shanghai zinc 1909 contract discount 40 to 30 yuan / ton, Guangdong market than Shanghai market discount 130 yuan / ton yesterday narrowed to 120 yuan / ton discount. The refinery shipment is normal, the market supply circulation is more abundant. Disk down, the morning holder quotation focused on the average price of-10 yuan / ton, another part of the holder quotation focused on the 09 contract discount 40-discount 30 yuan / ton, strong willingness to push the price, but near the end of the month there is no more demand, superimposed downstream orders continue to change, there is no strong willingness to receive goods downstream, the market trading atmosphere is flat, traders contribute to a small number of transactions, but near the end of the month there is no more demand, superimposed downstream orders continue to change, downstream there is no strong willingness to receive goods, the market trading atmosphere is flat, traders contribute to a small number of transactions. Overall, the transaction situation in Guangdong today was basically flat compared with yesterday and did not improve.

 

Tianjin: Tianjin market 0 # zinc ingot mainstream transaction at 19240 20040 yuan / ton, 0 # ordinary brand mainstream transaction at 19240 19300 yuan / ton, 1908 contract water 40 to 80 yuan / ton, Tianjin market than Shanghai stock market to maintain 20 yuan / ton discount. Refinery shipment is normal, the market supply circulation is more abundant, the holder early quotation is concentrated in the 08 contract rising water 40 100 yuan / ton nearby, coincides with the market surface decline adjustment, downstream meets the low rigid demand to buy concentrated in the low price ordinary brand, the holder sees the situation to lower the high price brand goods source to rise the water to the 08 contract rising water 40 80 yuan / ton, the market transaction slightly improves, however, the transaction is still mainly to the low price brand goods source. Overall, the disk downward superposition weekend is just around the corner, downstream every fall there is still a small amount of rigid demand to buy, the market transaction activity has increased compared with yesterday, the overall transaction situation has improved compared with yesterday.

 

Stocks: as of July 26, social zinc stocks in the three places were down 1100 tons from July 19 and 6700 tons to 144500 tons from July 22. Into the July consumption off-season, inventory is still not tired. SMM learned that social inventories of zinc fell 1100 tons on Wednesday from Friday, down 6700 tons from Monday to 144500 tons, and stocks fell instead of increasing. According to SMM, inventories continued to decline this week, mainly due to some refineries and import shipments are not much, and downstream this week on the low replenishment of goods, led to out of the warehouse behavior, inventory recorded a decline.

 

Bonded area inventory: according to SMM research, as of July 26, Shanghai bonded area zinc ingot inventory was 89500 tons, down 1700 tons from Friday. According to SMM understand that the bonded area inventory decline mainly from the re-export out of the warehouse contribution, and did not turn to domestic circulation.

 

Zinc price: last Friday Len zinc received a bald small positive line, the United States finger down to improve Zhenlun zinc higher, LME zinc inventory fell continuously, Lun zinc fundamentals are still supported. Last Friday, Shanghai zinc stopped falling and turned red, the 10-day moving average on the shadow line, domestic inventories fell again based on the fundamentals of certain support, but the expected increase in the stock, bulls confidence is still to be considered.

 

Today, it is expected to run in the range of $2420 to $2470 per ton, while the main 1909 contract of Shanghai Zinc is expected to run around $19000 to $19, 500 per ton. Material 0 # domestic rose 130.

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