[brief Review of SMM Thread] the library of the factory continues to double increase, but the demand has slowly emerged.
The country's total thread inventory this week was 8.5343 million tons, an increase of 220400 tons from the previous month, an increase of 238600 tons over the previous week. Stocks in the plant this week were 2.4222 million tons, an increase of 41200 tons (+ 1.7 per cent) from the previous month, and the increase was converged by 37500 tons. The social bank, which rose 179200 tons from last week, is still in a state of accumulation, in line with expectations.
On the supply side: the supply side is still high this week, but it has been reduced. Mainly because the average weekly profit of the long process steel plant is reduced by about 46 yuan / ton, the profit of the steel plant is about 200 yuan / ton, and no other production restriction policy has been issued at present, although the long process steel plant has the cost pressure and does not have the intention to reduce production, it is in the state of full production. However, under the double attack of rising raw material costs and falling steel prices, the profits of short process steel mills are shrinking, and some steel mills are in a state of production reduction.
Demand side: although this week is in the demand off-season, the transaction is general, but has improved compared with last week, the demand side is also beginning to show sharp corners. Although in the recent high temperature weather, the downstream construction sites began to produce at the wrong time of high temperature, most of the construction sites will continue to catch up with the work in the evening, so the impact is not significant. The mood for receiving goods downstream has slowly recovered. On the other hand, due to the construction of fixed assets and real estate, it takes 6 to 9 months to start construction from investment to capital landing, so the current terminal demand is mainly the "construction tide" at the end of 2018. The toughness of steel demand is still there. Based on these two aspects, the market mentality is optimistic, speculative trade is also gradually active this week.
Generally speaking, although the factory treasury has increased, the fundamentals have improved, and the market mentality is weak but not pessimistic. The factory warehouse has begun to narrow the growth rate, although the social database is still growing, but some of the inventory is still futures operation. Therefore, with the gradual emergence of late demand, and the late steel plant profit tightening and environmental protection production restrictions affect the supply, thread spot will gradually come out of the haze.
On the spot side:
Hangzhou market: today's spot cumulative increase of 20 yuan / ton Shagang quoted price of 4010 yuan / ton. Today, trading with futures more popular, three types of brand shipment situation is more prominent, downstream take goods actively, speculative trade is active.
Shanghai market: today's spot rose 10 yuan / ton, Shagang quoted price of 3940 yuan / ton. Transactions increased today on a month-on-month basis, and there was no inventory pressure.
Beijing market: today's spot rose 10 yuan / ton, Hegang quoted price of 3880 yuan / ton. The transaction situation today is better than that of yesterday.
Guangzhou market: today's spot cumulative 10 yuan / ton, cold steel quotation 4150 yuan / ton. Today, the transaction as a whole is general, there is a dark drop in the shipment situation. [SMM Steel]