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[notes of SMM Zinc Internal Morning meeting]
Jul 24,2019 09:30CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

News from SMM7, March 23:


Zinc Morning meeting: macro: it is reported that China and the United States will hold their first high-level face-to-face trade talks next week since the talks broke down in May. Boris Johnson, who won the Conservative election and will become prime minister on Wednesday, insists he will leave the European Union at the end of October without an early election. The IMF has again downgraded its global growth forecast, fearing that policy "mistakes" such as Brexit will derail the expected recovery.


Fundamentals: yesterday's spot review:


Shanghai: the center of gravity of zinc futures operation has moved up slightly, the market circulation has increased and most of the long orders have ended within a month. From the cost point of view, the willingness of traders to receive new orders has been significantly weakened, while the downstream rally has once again turned to wait-and-see, mainly to digest inventory, and the atmosphere of more and less trading in the market has obviously become weaker. The morning market leader single transaction is still based on the net average price as the benchmark transaction is more smooth, but the average price rises 5 to 10 yuan / ton to receive the goods is stronger, and the rising sticker water quotation is concentrated in the rising water 70 to 80 yuan / ton or so, the trading parties save 10 yuan / ton differences to fall into a stalemate, the transaction is not as good as yesterday, the second trading period of the market is still mainly shipping, the quotation has not changed significantly, the overall trading is slightly less than yesterday.


Guangdong: normal shipment of refineries, abundant circulation of goods in the market. In the morning, the quotation of the holder focused on the discount of 40-30 yuan / ton to the 09 contract, but the market trading atmosphere continued to be dull. After entering the second trading session, some holders reduced the discount to about 50 yuan / ton to the 09 contract, but the market catcher's willingness to receive the goods around the 09 contract discount of 60 yuan / ton, traders trading differences appeared, temporary stalemate, the subsequent part of the holder down to the 09 contract discount of 60 yuan / ton, contributing to a small amount of transactions. Overall, the transaction situation in Guangdong today is worse than that of yesterday.


Tianjin: refinery normal shipment, the market supply circulation is more abundant, the morning holder price intention is stronger, the concentrated quotation in the 08 contract rising water 80 to 120 yuan / ton, downstream does not show the strong willingness to receive the goods, the follow-up holder sees the situation to reduce the rising water 20 to 40 yuan / ton, the market concentrated transaction in the 08 contract rising water 40 to 100 yuan / ton, but the downstream bearish mood is stronger, the transaction volume is more limited. Overall, today's Tianjin market trading atmosphere continues to be light, market transactions are mainly low-priced brand goods, today's Tianjin market transactions are basically flat compared with yesterday.


Zinc price: overnight zinc recorded a small positive line, above 10, 20 EMA adhesion pressure is greater, overseas contango structure expansion, basic support shows weak, overnight Shanghai zinc recorded two Lianyang, the upper pressure 20 days EMA operation, KDJ index turn around gently, indicating that Shanghai zinc does not have obvious downward kinetic energy, macro mood dissipated, Shanghai zinc fundamental support is still relatively weak.


Forecast today: expected to run in the range of 2400-2450 US dollars / ton, Shanghai Zinc main 1909 contract or run in the vicinity of 19150-1955 yuan / ton. Material 0 # domestic increase 10


price forecast

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