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[notes of SMM Zinc Internal Morning meeting]
Jul 19,2019 09:36CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM7, 19th, news:


Zinc Morning meeting: macro: us Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that adjusting the dollar policy is something that can be considered in the future and has not changed so far. Dovish remarks from the president of the New York Fed boosted U. S. stocks, and the dollar fell with Treasury yields. The number of first-time jobless claims rose to 216000 last week, still near an all-time low.


Fundamentals: yesterday's spot review:


Shanghai: zinc futures continue to rise, due to the transfer of ownership of third-party warehouses, the transfer of goods rights is slow, and the trading activity of the market decreased significantly within a day. In the morning market, the average price of the net or the average price of the net rose, or the rising water was 70 to 90 yuan / ton, the deposit price of zinc ingots of the same brand in different warehouses was different, the overall market transaction was relatively weak, and the inventory market was relatively active. Entering the second trading period, the market trading continued to be weak, and the downstream brand quotations dominated, but after the zinc returned to rise, the downstream wait-and-see mood was stronger, and the price adjustment effect of some traders was limited. The overall market trading and transaction are significantly lower than yesterday.


Guangdong: refineries actively ship goods, the market supply of goods is abundant. In the morning, the quotations of the holders are more concentrated, basically around the average price of-20 yuan / ton, but there are no more transactions in the market, and the trading between traders is also more limited. Entering the second trading session, the market focused on the 1909 contract discount 40 to 20 yuan / ton, some holders once again downgraded the discount to about 60 yuan / ton to 09 contract discount, market transactions have not yet received a significant boost. Today, Guangdong market traders and downstream do not have a higher willingness to receive goods, the market transaction situation is getting worse again.


Tianjin: the disk is going up, the refinery is actively shipping, and the circulation of goods in the market is relatively abundant. The carrier mainly shipped the goods, and the early quotation focused on the 80 to 120 yuan / ton rising water for the 08 contract, but most of the downstream were mainly cautious and wait and see, and their willingness to receive the goods was not good. Subsequently, some of the holders took the lead in lowering the supply of high-priced brands to 70 to 80 yuan / ton, and the rising water supply of low-priced brands concentrated in the vicinity of 40 to 50 yuan / ton for 09 contract. However, after the price adjustment, the market transaction has not been significantly boosted, just in time for the market to rise rapidly. Market transactions have slumped again. The trading situation in Tianjin today is worse than that of yesterday.


Zinc price: overnight, zinc received a small negative line, attached to the shadow line on the 40-day EMA suppression, the lower support in the 20-day EMA operation, overseas back structure back to the contango structure, overseas supply contradiction alleviated, Lun zinc return to the space may be more limited. Overnight Shanghai zinc positive and negative, the upper 40-day EMA suppression strength is strong, Shanghai zinc overall pressure operation, domestic inventory accumulation is expected to enhance, Shanghai zinc back up kinetic energy may be limited, within a day or down finishing operation.


Forecast today: expected to run in the range of 2440-2490 US dollars / ton, Shanghai Zinc main 1909 contract or operation in the vicinity of 19150-19650 yuan / ton. Material 0 # domestic increase 160

price forecast

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