7.15 minutes of SMM internal aluminum morning meeting
Market surface: the United States closed at three consecutive shade on Friday, and most of the basic metals closed higher. Lun Aluminum opened at US $1821 / ton on Friday morning and gradually recovered after reaching US $1808 / ton, closing at US $1828 / tonne, up US $7 / ton, or 0.38%. The 1908 contract of Shanghai Aluminium Company opened at 13755 yuan / ton on Friday and rose steadily after the opening session, closing at 13790 yuan / ton at night.
Macro: in terms of data, (1) the published value of China's June trade account (100 million yuan) is 3451.8, the previous value is 2791.2, and the expected value is 2785; (2) the annual supply rate of M2 currency in China in June is 8.5%, the previous value is 8.5%, and the expected value is 8.6%, indicating that the liquidity of market funds is reasonable and abundant, and the market interest rate runs smoothly; (3) the monthly rate of PPI in the United States in June is 0.1%, the previous value is 0.1%, and the expected value is 0%.
Fundamentals: on the cost side, the weighted price of SMM alumina was quoted at 2607 yuan / ton on Friday, down 116 yuan / ton compared with the previous Friday. The transaction in the northern region has been around 2600 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction has reached 2570 yuan / ton. Guangxi, Guizhou region transactions are light; On the demand side, (1) on the export side, China's unforged aluminum exports in June were 506000 tons, a decrease of 30, 000 tons compared with May, a decrease of 0.8 percent over the same period last year, and a total of 2.982 million tons from January to June, an increase of 10 percent over the same period last year. (2) on the domestic side, the discount in Gongyi region expanded to about 100-120 yuan / ton last week, and the spot transaction price of aluminum ingots in Guangdong dropped from 45 yuan / ton to 10 yuan / ton in Shanghai, mainly due to the increase in the arrival of goods from the two places, and the working rate of downstream enterprises is now weak, and has a wait-and-see attitude towards the larger price fluctuations last week.
Spot: the trading price between Shanghai and Wuxi on Friday morning is between 13700 and 13710 yuan / ton, and the spot price is about 20 yuan / ton for the current month. After 10: 30, the spot price begins to focus on 13720 to 13730 yuan / ton, and between 10 yuan / ton and 10 yuan / ton for the current month, which is nearly 80 yuan / ton lower than that of the previous day, and the spot price in Hangzhou is between 13730 and 13750 yuan / ton. As the spot aluminum price on Friday almost gave up all the gains of the previous day, the market wait-and-see mood rose again, the shipment was still more active in the morning, and the trading enthusiasm between traders. After 10: 30, considering that the market price was appropriate, traders and middlemen began to take delivery mainly, and the transaction was OK. However, the downstream end due to weaker orders, coupled with the price wait-and-see, the mood of stock is not high, although the receipt of goods is better than Thursday, but still lower than the market expected level of stock. The overall deal in East China on Friday was average.
Conclusion: the domestic alumina and other raw material prices continue to fall so that the cost side is still in the downward channel, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has become exhausted, and the short-term aluminum price rebound fluency is limited. However, based on the expectation of the consumption peak season in September, it is suggested that the borrow, positive package position, which can pay attention to 0912 contract in structure, should continue to be held, but it is not recommended to open a new one.
(SMM Li Hao 021 5166 6863)