[minutes of SMM Aluminum Internal Morning meeting] the terminal automobile industry is not as expected & the northern aluminum ingot inventory is under pressure.

7. 5 minutes of SMM internal aluminum morning meeting

Market surface: yesterday, the internal and external market continued to rise, Lun Aluminum closed at US $1809.5 / ton, up US $20.5 / ton, up 1.15%. Shanghai Aluminium Company 1908 was mainly short position reduction at night, closing at the highest level of 13895 yuan / ton at night.

Macro: Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao said at a news conference on the 4th that the economic and trade teams of China and the United States have been maintaining communication. The unilateral tariff imposed by the US side on Chinese products is the starting point of Sino-US economic and trade friction.If the two sides can reach an agreement, the additional tariffs must be completely abolished. The Chinese side is implementing the relevant procedures of the unreliable entity list system in accordance with the established pace.

Fundamentals: cost-side SMM alumina price is flat compared with the previous day, the market has not heard of the actual transaction, Jingxi Tiangui in July, according to SMM understand that the plant is expected to be as early as October. On the supply side, the Suyuan second Branch of Baiyan Mine has a full production capacity of 100000 tons, and the third section of Yunnan Aluminum Zhaotong is basically full production. At present, the plant is running 330000 tons, Shanxi Zhongrun continues to trough, the current operation is 170000 tons, and it is hoped that the operating capacity of Guyang will still be 250000 tons. On the demand side, according to SMM, SAIC Volkswagen Anting three factories are not shut down due to high temperature holidays, in addition to SAIC, Great Wall Motor also has a similar repair, in 6.15 to 7.15 to complete the certification and trial production of six cars related moulds, and ordered that suppliers should not prepare the warehouse, and the dilution of downstream demand led to a downward channel for recycled aluminum prices for several months, which is expected to improve by the end of August. Inventory aspect, yesterday SMM statistics national electrolytic aluminum social inventory 1.028 million tons, month on Thursday continued to drop 23000 tons, the speed of going to storage has slowed down; the northern region aluminum ingot shipment continues to increase, superimposed consumption off-season as scheduled, northeast, Tianjin, Henan aluminum ingot inventory further under pressure.

Spot: the transaction price between Wuxi and Shanghai is between 13740 and 13760 yuan / ton, which is 10 to 20 yuan / ton, which is about 90 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, and the transaction price in Hangzhou is between 13790 and 13800 yuan / ton. Aluminum prices rose sharply on Thursday, holding some of yesterday's low to start the source of goods, active shipments, middlemen and traders active reversals, a large market also has nearly 8,000 tons of purchases. Downstream fear of high performance wait and see, the overall willingness to purchase is not high, the receipt of goods is flat. The deal in East China on Thursday was slightly better than the day before.

Summary: we maintain the previous point of view unchanged, the speed of domestic electrolytic aluminum storage slowed down, alumina prices have not yet come to the end, the market is worried that July-August consumption off-season may be exhausted, the previous aluminum prices unilateral weakness, but extrapolated to the September consumption season brought about by the accelerated storage market, you can try in 13500 to 13800 yuan / ton layout.

(SMM Li Hao 021 5166 6863)