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[notes of SMM Zinc Internal Morning meeting]
Jun 21,2019 09:31CST
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The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

On the 21st of SMM6,

Zinc Morning meeting: macro: geopolitics make waves again. Trump expects Powell to "eventually" cut interest rates, and expectations of a high fever push US stocks to a record high. The Sino-US negotiating team will hold talks in Osaka as early as next Tuesday in preparation for the G-20 meeting between the two heads of state. Focus on regional PMI data during the day. Fundamentals: yesterday's spot review:

 

Shanghai: today's zinc futures continue to fall, but the market circulation is still loose, coupled with the outflow of warehouse receipts, and near the end of the weekend delivery of long orders, downstream procurement has also been basically completed, market demand has obviously weakened, the imbalance between supply and demand has further intensified, and the early market quotation has continued the downward trend, from 160 yuan / ton of water to 140 yuan / ton of water. Some of the domestic brands due to warehouse problems can not participate in the long single transaction quotation on the low side of 10 to 20 yuan / ton, but the market bearish period and the basis of the mood heating up, the overall transaction is generally stable compared with yesterday, but the trading atmosphere is still cooling. Guangdong: the disk is down, refineries are slightly cherished, and the circulation of goods in the market is slightly reduced. The early quotation of the holder mostly focused on about 60 yuan / ton of 07 liters of water, but there was no more reaction in the market, and the subsequent transaction was about 50 yuan / ton of 07 liters of water. Entering the second trading period, the market fell more, the quotation focused on the 08 contract rising water 200-230 yuan / ton, but the willingness to receive goods downstream obviously weakened, did not boost the market transaction, today Tianjin market trading atmosphere is light, the overall transaction situation is significantly weaker than yesterday. Tianjin: the disk is down, refineries are slightly cherished, and the circulation of goods in the market is slightly tighter than it was a few days ago. In the morning, the quotation of the holder focused on around 170 yuan / ton of water for 07 contract, but there was no more reaction to the price downstream, and the subsequent holder lowered the water supply again to about $150,220 / ton for 07 liter, but the market did not see a significant boost after the price adjustment. The main reason is that the market has more downturns, the market is more pessimistic, and is more bearish on the follow-up zinc prices, and there is no more willingness to receive goods downstream. A few days before superimposed, there was some replenishment on the downside. Today, the trading atmosphere in Tianjin market has become lighter, and the market transaction situation has cooled again compared with yesterday.

Zinc price: every other day, the trend of zinc is volatile, after the failure of the integer position, and then explore the former low, although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates are expected to boost, but the future supply pressure, LME spot water down, the action on the zinc can be more limited, observe the low support strength within the day; Overnight, Shanghai zinc suffered short pressure, after delivery, the monthly difference narrowed rapidly, the market follow-up consumer expectations are not good, and the direction of supply-side increase is set, the accumulation pool is expected to continue to strengthen, and the performance of Shanghai zinc is weak. Forecast today: expected to run in the range of $2450 to $2500 / ton, and the main 1908 contract of Shanghai Zinc is expected to run around $19550 to $20050 / ton. Material 0 # domestic fell 40.

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