6.18 minutes of SMM internal aluminum morning meeting
Market surface: Lun aluminum harvest hammer line yesterday, bottomed to $1745, closing price at $1758.5 / ton, up $0.50 or 0.03% from the previous day; internal Shanghai aluminum main contract 1908 closing price at 13825 yuan / ton, up 15 yuan or 0.4% from the day closing price, position increased 5928 hands, bulls increased the majority. Macro: on the 17th, the central bank restarted a 14-day reverse buyback of 150 billion yuan to increase cross-quarter liquidity; on July 1, China will have a new round of 300 billion yuan fee reduction measures; the Bureau of Statistics: the growth rate of industrial production in May was 0.4 percentage points lower than that of the previous month.
Fundamentals: yesterday SMM alumina prices continued to drop 53 yuan / ton, at present, alumina still has room to continue to fall, superimposed demand seasonal weakness, become the current bearish aluminum prices of the leading factor; Monday statistics half-week aluminum ingot stocks fell 30, 000 tons to 1.088 million tons, the decline was expanded from last week, and the greater efforts to go to the main areas concentrated in East China; Shanxi carries out special supervision and inspection of safety production of non-coal mine tailing reservoirs in flood season: according to the requirements of the flood control and drought relief headquarters of the provincial government, starting from June, the province will carry out special supervision and inspection of production safety of non-coal mine tailing reservoirs in flood season for a period of 4 months, involving 11 cities, 15 counties and 35 tailing reservoirs. According to SMM, Henan Zhengzhou, Jiaozuo and other areas of carbon enterprises recently limited production, ranging from 30% to completely stop, the initial period is set at 1 month. Spot: yesterday morning in Shanghai Wuxi market transaction price concentrated between 13900 to 13910 yuan / ton, the plate surface rising water 10 yuan / ton, yesterday a large account line did not receive goods plan, the market supply is very sufficient, although the holder active shipment but the actual shipment volume is not much, middleman and trader transaction activity drops obviously compared with last week, downstream end Monday replenishment also did not expect, the purchase intention is not obvious. Summary: under the background that the alumina price is on the low side and the consumption is gradually weakening, the aluminum price fluctuation is weak, but it is expected that the market will continue to go to the warehouse throughout the year, at the bottom of the stage or around 13500 yuan / ton. Wait for the expected annual second round of consumption season around August to accelerate to go to the warehouse, you can wait for an opportunity to try Buddo.
(SMM Liang Xuan)