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[notes of SMM Zinc Internal Morning meeting]
Jun 18,2019 09:35CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

On the 18th of SMM6,

Zinc Morning meeting: macro: the market focuses on the progress of subsequent negotiations on the eve of the G-20 summit, and the next day the macro data performance is light. Fundamentals: yesterday's spot review:



Shanghai: on the last day of contract operation that month, the monthly difference quickly narrowed to about 360 yuan / ton, and the market turned to quote for July. In the early morning market, the rising water was about 400 yuan / ton. Due to the steady increase in the output of the smelter in the future, the quantity of warehouse receipt overflow market will increase significantly after delivery, and the market supply exceeds expectations in the later period, and the probability of high water increase is difficult to maintain. The average SMM price determined by the cost of the market transaction is about 10 yuan 20 yuan / ton, the transaction of rising discount is relatively rare, the quotation pressure is reduced to 350 yuan / ton, the transaction feedback is still relatively limited, and there is no significant price difference between different brands. Enter the second trading period, the market quotation changes little, downstream every fall into the market procurement has increased, traders trading light when the actual consumption heats up, the overall transaction slightly improved compared with last Friday. Guangdong: factory normal shipment, today is the delivery date, traders receive goods sentiment is obvious, the market is still part of the registered warehouse receipt circulation, but the overall transaction is not as good as last week, the rising water downward adjustment is more obvious, Kirin, Huize and other brands reported in the Shanghai zinc 1907 contract water 370,380yuan / ton, Tiefeng, Haolong and other brands reported in the Shanghai zinc 1907 contract water 360370RMB / ton, today's zinc down, Downstream every low a little procurement, more to the source of low-priced goods, today's overall trading is less active, slightly worse than last Friday. Tianjin: the disk is down, refineries slightly cherish the sale, but because of the large number of goods in circulation in the market, the amount of goods in circulation has not been greatly affected. The holder quoted the 07 contract early quotation in the rising water 350 500 yuan / ton, to the 06 contract quote in the discount 170-150 yuan / ton, to the 06 contract quotation is the ordinary low price source, the market inquiry situation is more, the willingness to receive the goods is temporarily obvious, the holder for the shipment once again lowers the quotation to the 07 contract rising water 330 400 yuan / ton, after the price adjustment market transaction receives the small boost, mainly with the low price brand goods source contribution more trading volume. The trading atmosphere in Tianjin today was significantly warmer than last Friday, and the transaction volume in the market was better than last Friday. Inventory: social zinc stocks on Wednesday were up 4300 tons from Friday, up 14200 tons from last Monday to 158200 tons, and the increase in Shanghai and Guangdong was more significant than last Monday. Due to the approach of delivery, some refineries increase delivery as warehouse receipts for delivery. Superimposed, some of the imported zinc arrived, while the downstream consumption did not improve, the zinc inventory in the three places recorded a further increase. Zinc price: overnight zinc stop Yin and Yang, the lower shadow line in the lower track of Brin Road to find support, the upper 5, 10 days EMA bonding to form a strong suppression, and the increase in LME pre-registered warehouse receipt, so that the market for the follow-up warehouse is expected to rise again, and the zinc fundamentals continue to be weak, the daily material return space is very limited; Overnight Shanghai zinc by the outer plate back up, significantly reduced more than 24000 hands, but above 5, 10 days EMA to form a strong suppression, it is expected that Shanghai zinc main contract or weak operation in the vicinity of the 5, 10 day moving average, today expected: expected to run in the range of $2430 to $2480 / ton, Shanghai zinc main force 1908 contract or operation in the vicinity of 19750 to 20250 yuan / ton. Material 0 # domestic fell 160.

price forecast

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