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[notes of SMM Zinc Internal Morning meeting]
Jun 17,2019 09:28CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

On the 17th of SMM6,

Zinc Morning meeting: macro: the central bank announced that it has decided to increase the rediscount quota by 200 billion yuan and the standing lending facility (SLF) quota by 100 billion yuan on June 14, 2019. we will strengthen liquidity support for small and medium-sized banks and maintain sufficient liquidity for small and medium-sized banks. The follow-up transformation of the old community and the development of community service is not only a livelihood project, but also an important starting point for cultivating the domestic market to expand domestic demand, which can not only stimulate effective investment, but also promote consumption and promote a large number of jobs.



Fundamentals: last Friday spot review: Shanghai: monthly difference is slightly narrowed, near the weekend plus delivery, lack of confidence in the base difference after delivery, traders are more willing to ship, spot discount further fell back to discount 220-discount 200 yuan / ton, monthly difference from 680700 yuan / ton narrowed to 620660yuan / ton, July quotation since the rising water 480500 yuan / ton down to 450460yuan / ton, the monthly difference from 680,700 yuan / ton to 620660yuan / ton, the monthly difference from 680,700 yuan / ton to 620660yuan / ton, and the monthly difference narrowed from 680,700 yuan / ton to 450460yuan / ton. Due to the lack of certain conditions for the delivery of currency, and those who do not meet the delivery conditions are only 20 to 30 yuan / ton higher than those made in China, the consignors have a stronger willingness to wait, while some of the rigid demand procurement appears in the downstream, and the market transaction is relatively light, and the overall trading atmosphere has not warmed up. Guangdong: refinery normal shipment, the market circulation source is obviously narrowed, the overall shipping enthusiasm is obviously not as good as yesterday, a small number of holders water test quotation to the average price around 10 yuan / ton, the rest of the non-delivery license quoted to the average price around 40 yuan / ton, only a small amount of transactions. Entering the second trading period, the market pricing report on the Shanghai zinc 1907 contract rising water 62060 yuan / ton, and then continued the market delivery source did not flow out, the overall trading continued in the morning dull, today's transaction is not as good as yesterday. Tianjin: disk down, refineries slightly cherish the sale, but the impact is not great, the market supply circulation is still relatively abundant. The holder quoted in the morning to 06 contract discount 200 yuan / ton-discount 150 yuan / ton or so, downstream more to wait-and-see and inquiry, the willingness to receive goods is not good, enter the second trading period, the holder once again downgraded the discount to 06 contract discount 250-discount 200 yuan / ton or so, after the price adjustment slightly boost the willingness to receive goods downstream, spot transactions to the source of low prices. Today, the trading atmosphere in Tianjin market is flat, and the overall transaction situation is slightly better than that of yesterday. Inventory: as of June 14, social zinc stocks in the three places increased by 13500 tons from Thursday before the festival, an increase of 9900 tons to 153900 tons from June 10, an overall increase. The main reason is that this week is approaching delivery, some refineries increase the delivery to the warehouse, do warehouse receipt delivery. In addition, some of the recent imports of zinc into the market, increase the arrival of goods. Downstream every high wait-and-see, take goods is not good. Overall inventory recorded a larger increase. Bonded area inventory: according to SMM research, bonded area zinc inventory dropped by 5350 tons to 100150 tons compared with June 6, considering or under the promotion of domestic squeeze, at the same time weigh the internal and external anti-set and domestic borrow profit, give bonded area imported zinc into domestic digestion opportunities, spot market imported zinc circulation can also be loose evidence. Zinc price: last Friday, Lun Zinc recorded three consecutive yin, the upper shadow line reluctantly broke the 5-day moving average, the overseas back structure weakened the zinc price support, and the Lun Zinc ran smoothly, and there was no greater action energy in the day. Last Friday, Shanghai zinc recorded four consecutive yin, the overall jump off all moving averages, KDJ indicators turn downward, indicating that the downward trend of Shanghai zinc, the main reason for the recovery of supply reflected in the inventory increase, the market follow-up inventory increase is still expected, and the consumer side gradually into the off-season, Shanghai zinc or weak operation within the day. Forecast today: expected to run in the range of 2430-2480 US dollars / ton, Shanghai Zinc main 1908 contract or run in the vicinity of 2197-20100 yuan / ton. Material 0 # fell 360.

price forecast

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