6.11 SMM internal aluminum morning meeting minutes: overnight Shanghai aluminum bottomed out, slightly up nearly 0.4% to 13995 yuan / ton; The outside market closed up $16.5, or 0.94%, at $1777 a tonne yesterday, with the dollar falling for days and most of the non-ferrous metals on the outside rising.
Macro: the UK GDP month-on-month ratio of-0.4% in April, lower than the expected-0.1%; China's imports in May-2.5%, lower than expected, while exports + 1.1% year-on-year, higher than expected and before the value.
Fundamentals: China's unforged aluminum and aluminum exports rose to 536000 tons in May, an increase of 7.63 percent over April and 10.52 percent over the same period last year. Yesterday SMM released basic metal production data: in May (31 days), China's alumina (metallurgical grade) production of 5.971 million tons, down 1.4% from the same period last year, average daily production and operating capacity continued to decline in May, mainly due to environmental protection and technical innovation; In May (31 days), China's electrolytic aluminum output was 3.041 million tons, down 1.0 per cent from the same period last year; at the consumer end, China's electrolytic aluminum production in May (31 days) was 3.041 million tons, down 1.0 per cent from the same period last year. In May, the starting rate of the aluminum plate and strip industry fell 0.19 percentage points to 74.44% from the previous month, an increase of nearly 5 percentage points over the same period last year. In May 2019, the opening rate of aluminum foil enterprises was 88.68%, which was 1.02% higher than that in April, and the air conditioning foil still contributed a large increment. In May, the operating rate of aluminum profile enterprises was 62.12%, a slight increase of 0.04% compared with April, and the operating rate of aluminum foil enterprises in May 2019 was 88.68%, 1.02% higher than that in April. The average operating rate of the aluminum cable industry in May was 45.62%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous month and nearly 1 percentage point from the same period last year. Inventory side: yesterday's statistical inventory fell 17000 tons to 1.131 million tons, the decline was significantly narrowed.
Spot: yesterday, the spot price in Shanghai was between 14000 and 14020 yuan / ton, and the flat surface of the plate was 20 yuan / ton, which was 30 yuan / ton lower than that before the festival. There is an adequate supply of goods in the market, traders are more active in shipping, the willingness to receive goods has also been significantly enhanced, and the overall trading is active. Although there is a certain replenishment after the downstream festival, it is OK to receive the goods, but the purchasing strength is obviously not as good as that before the festival. Summary: aluminum price test 14000 gate, currently facing a month change, in the context of forward prices hanging upside down, aluminum prices under pressure running between 13800 and 14100 yuan / ton.