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[notes of SMM Zinc Internal Morning meeting]
Jun 11,2019 09:47CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

On the 11th of SMM6,

Zinc Morning meeting: macro: the Central Office and the State Office issued the Circular on the issuance of Special Local Government Bonds and the financing of supporting projects. Customs statistics show that in the first five months of this year, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports increased by 4.1 percent over the same period last year, down 9.6 percent from the same period last year in the United States. Fundamentals: yesterday's spot review:



Shanghai: zinc futures are higher, the monthly difference is slightly higher, smelters ship normally, market shipments are dominant, trading orders are relatively active in the morning market, and transactions are relatively active with an average net price of 10 yuan per ton. Shengtianshui quotation from the discount 30-discount 20 yuan / ton under the expansion to discount 50-discount 40 yuan / ton transaction is still weak, the receiver looks at the weak rising water waiting mood is stronger. After entering the second trading period, after the cost is determined, the trader further adjusts the price to the discount 60-50 yuan / ton. Due to the arrival of delivery, the spot transfer is relatively appropriate, and some of the consignors actively receive the goods at a low price to stimulate part of the transaction. Rising water stabilized but the recovery of transactions is relatively limited, downstream fear of high wait-and-see, waiting for delivery after the end of the market, only to do just the need to purchase, at the same time the transaction is flat, not as good as last Friday. Guangdong: refinery normal shipment, early in the morning, the monthly difference expanded, the market for the quotation is more confused, most of the average price, or the average price-10, contribute to a small number of transactions. Entering the second trading period, the market pricing is about 500yuan / ton for Shanghai Zinc 1907 contract. However, after the festival, the willingness to replenish the reservoir was not good, and after the superimposed long single demand was basically saturated, the rising water recorded a further downward trend, and it was reported that the rising water for the Shanghai Zinc 1907 contract was around 480 yuan / ton. However, with the widening of the monthly difference, the price in the lower reaches waited for the price to fall. The overall procurement has not improved, but the holder rising water is not willing to continue to loose down, the market transaction stalemate. Trading in Guangdong is mediocre today. Tianjin: the disk is rising, the smelter is actively shipping, the market supply is abundant, and the holder takes the initiative to discount the price and actively ship the goods. In the morning, the quotation is concentrated near the discount of 50-Pingshui to the 1906 contract, but because the market consumption is gradually weakening, Superimposed downstream on the zinc price bearish sentiment is stronger, the general willingness to accept goods is low, the follow-up holders for the low-price brand supply to expand the discount again, adjusted to the 06 contract discount of about 100 yuan / ton, after the price adjustment contributed to a small number of transactions. Today, the overall trading atmosphere in Tianjin market has become lighter, the reserve volume before the festival may still need to be consumed, the superimposed disk is more upward, and the willingness to receive goods downstream is weaker. The trading situation in Tianjin today is significantly weaker than that before the festival. Inventory: as of June 10, social zinc stocks on Wednesday were up 2700 from last Monday and 3600 tons to 144100 tons from Thursday before the festival, with small increases recorded in Shanghai and Guangdong. The main reason is that during the festival period, there are few purchases downstream. Under the normal delivery of some refineries, the arrival of goods is increased and the inventory is recorded a small increase. Zinc price: every other day, the impact of zinc fell back, integer suppression is still obvious, superimposed LME zinc inventory recorded an increase of 875t, resulting in a certain degree of pressure on zinc prices, within a day or continue weak finishing, test 5-day EMA support; Shanghai zinc received a cross star overnight. With the support of the current strong back structure, the strength of the lower support is still obvious, but in the case of subsequent refinery increment, the accumulation reservoir is still expected. Follow-up action can still be considered today is expected: expected to run in the range of 2460 or 2510 US dollars / ton, Shanghai Zinc main 1908 contract or run in the vicinity of 20000-20500 yuan / ton. Material 0 # domestic fell 100.

price forecast

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