6.10 minutes of SMM internal aluminum morning meeting
Trading: on Friday, the dollar index fell sharply to 96.451 due to the sharply lower-than-expected May non-farm data in the United States, but metals did not show a significant boost. Lun Aluminum closed at $1760.5 per ton, down $13.50 / ton, down 0.76%. The 1907 contract of Shanghai Aluminum main Company fell 135 yuan / ton to 13950 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.96%.
Macro: the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 75000 in May, the lowest level in three months, less than half of the expected level. The offshore renminbi fell through 6.94 to 6.95 and 6.96 one after another, with a marked devaluation. Focus on China's import and export data, foreign reserves, social finance and new loans, which may be released today.
Fundamentals: 1) recently recycled aluminum and aluminum prices are upside down, mainly due to weak demand, the overall consumption of cars is not good, in view of the upcoming July sixth, the country five automobile price reduction to speed up inventory, the follow-up price difference still has the risk of increasing. 2) the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the Ministry of Commerce, the Development and Reform Commission and the General Administration of Customs have issued a notice (No. 68 of 2018) on the adjustment of the catalogue of imported waste management, adjusting eight varieties of solid waste, such as aluminum scrap, to restricted import products. Effective as of July 1, 2019. 3) SMM has repeatedly stressed that the middle and late June is a period of weak consumption, according to the current understanding, the opening rate of aluminum plate and strip and aluminum profiles in May may be able to maintain the same month-on-month level, but the probability of a weakening of the new order index in June has become a foregone conclusion.
Spot end: last Thursday, the spot transaction price of Shanghai and Wuxi aluminum ingots was between 14050 and 14060 yuan / ton, which was about 50 yuan / ton lower than that on Thursday, and rose 10 to 20 yuan / ton to the market surface, due to the slight widening of the price difference every other month. Under the background of spot rising water, the holder is very active, and the downstream manufacturers consider that the price is higher than Thursday, the Dragon Boat Festival is just around the corner, the willingness to stock before the festival is increased, the purchasing volume is higher than that on Wednesday, and both buyers and sellers are active. After entering the second trading stage, the aluminum went down, and the trading price fell back to 14030 to 14050 yuan per ton, which was about 70 yuan per ton compared with Wednesday, and the water rose by 10 to 20 yuan per ton that month, and the market transaction in the second stage was lighter.
Summary: the return of aluminum prices after the festival trend is not strong, the consumer side is expected to be more obvious, offset part of the inventory decline in aluminum prices, the follow-up need to continue to pay attention to the strength of both supply and demand, aluminum prices are expected to sink this week compared with the pre-holiday center of gravity.