6.4 SMM internal aluminum morning meeting minutes: overnight aluminum fell 20 dollars or 1.11 per cent to $1774, back to a one-week low, yesterday non-ferrous metals rose and fell each other, aluminum fell in the middle; Overnight Shanghai aluminum closed at 14075 yuan, down 20 yuan from the day's closing price. Macro: the ISM manufacturing index in the United States in May was 52.1, the lowest in Trump's term, and the final value of manufacturing PMI in May reached the lowest level in nearly 10 years, in which the final value of the new order index fell into a shrinking range for the first time in nearly 10 years. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI50.2 was higher than expected in May.
Fundamentals: yesterday SMM statistics of the national aluminum ingot inventory continued to reduce 31000 tons to 1.181 million tons, the corresponding consumption days of about 12 days; Last week (5.27-6.2), the output of aluminum ingots from the main consumers totaled 118700 tons, 13500 tons less than the previous week, and last week (5.27-6.2) the output of aluminum bars from the main consumers was 40300 tons, 3600 tons less than the previous week. To inventory or continue, but out of the warehouse strength has weakened; Import and export: on May 30, the US Department of Commerce made a positive initial ruling on anti-dumping duties on Chinese aluminum wires and cables, ruling that the margin of dumping was 58.51% to 63.47%, and that US exports accounted for about 3% to 5% of China's total exports. The aluminum cable industry is even worse, but many enterprises are turning to the export cooperation of Belt and Road Initiative countries; On May 29, the Vietnamese Ministry of Industry and Commerce decided to impose provisional anti-dumping duties on Chinese imports of aluminum profiles, with the duty rate range from 2.46% to 35.58%. According to SMM statistics, Vietnamese export profiles accounted for about 10.16% of the total in 2018, the highest proportion. The investigation shows that it has a great impact on enterprises in Guangdong, Guangxi, Shandong and other places. Demand side: according to SMM research, May to June cold drink cans, beer packaging and other peak season products (aluminum strip) orders are more abundant, other decorative panels, car heat transfer orders are down about 5% to 8% compared with the previous month.
Spot end: yesterday, the transaction price in Shanghai was between 14150 and 14170 yuan / ton, which was about 10 yuan / ton lower than last Friday. For the month's rising water of 10 to 20 yuan / ton, the shippers were still active in shipping, and some traders were willing to receive the goods at a low price. But the actual deal was slightly deadlocked. There was some replenishment on Monday, but the overall enthusiasm was not high. Today, the overall transaction in East China is average. Conclusion: under the background of poor macro performance, the non-ferrous plate collectively weakens, and Shanghai Aluminum, under the expectation of weaker demand, is under pressure in stages, but it is still the strongest variety in the colored, and in the long run, it is still in the storage cycle in the whole year. The space for decline is relatively limited, and there is a risk of falling back on one side, but it is still the preferred multi-head configuration in the relatively strong and weak arbitrage of the non-ferrous plate.