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[notes of SMM Zinc Internal Morning meeting]
Jun 4,2019 09:36CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

On the 4th of SMM6,

Zinc early meeting: macro: the US ISM manufacturing industry unexpectedly fell in May, hitting a two-and-a-half-year low for two and a half months in a row; the final PMI value of the Markit manufacturing industry in May was the lowest since September 2009, and the new orders sub-index shrank for the first time in nearly 10 years. Global trade tensions and weak US inflation have raised the risk of US economic growth. The Fed's rate cut "may soon be guaranteed." the inverted three-month and 10-year key US bond yield curve also supports a rate cut. The market expects a rate cut of nearly 98 per cent by the end of the year.


Fundamentals: yesterday's spot review: Shanghai: the center of gravity of zinc futures has moved down slightly, the monthly difference is about 40 to 50 yuan / ton larger than last Friday, some refineries have cherished sales, and the market quotation has been reduced from about flat water to about 10 yuan / ton discount for the time being. However, the lack of transactions, part of the price adjustment to the discount of 20 yuan / ton or so to save a small amount of transactions, net average prices continue to contribute to the main transactions in the morning market. Enter the second trading period, the market quotation directly down to the discount 30-discount 20 yuan / ton or so, the low-price market feedback is relatively good, but the trading is still relatively not active, downstream procurement is still flat, the overall transaction gap is not large than last Friday. Guangdong: zinc futures are running at a low level, refineries are shipping normally, stocks in Guangdong continue to record a small increase, and the market is dominated by active shipment. Some holders try to report about 320 yuan / ton of water rising from the Shanghai Zinc 1907 contract. However, the rising discount failed to contribute to the obvious transaction, and the market transaction was dominated by an average price of-10. When entering the second trading period, the market reported that around 310 to 320 yuan / ton of water for the Shanghai Zinc 1907 contract, partly due to the intensification of the discount in that month, there were traders receiving goods in the market. However, the holder is unwilling to continue to downgrade Shengshui shipment, and then the transaction stalemate, today's transaction is flat, poor last Friday. Tianjin: the refinery shipment is normal, the market supply circulation is more abundant. In the morning, the holder quoted the ordinary brand price focused on the 06 contract flat water to rising water 20 yuan / ton, to Zijin and other high price brand supply quotation to 06 contract rising water 60 yuan / ton or so. As there are fewer Zijin brands in circulation on the market, Zijin and other high-priced brands ship smoothly, focusing on the 06 contract rising water of about 60 yuan / ton, but the trading atmosphere of Hongye Bailingche Hong and other brands is relatively desolate. The holder saw the trend to downgrade the water to 06 contract flat water to rising water 10 yuan / ton, after the price adjustment, there were some transactions in the market. On the whole, transactions in Tianjin today continued to be light, and the volume of transactions was basically flat compared with last Friday. Inventories: as of June 3, social inventories of zinc in the three places increased by 4000 tons compared with last Monday, down 2600 tons from Friday to 141300 tons. Shanghai stock market changes are more limited, Guangdong refineries continue to arrive, inventory recorded a small tired; Tianjin area, with the downstream willingness to take goods is still not good, some of the supplies sent to Shanghai, inventory fell slightly. Zinc prices: every other day, zinc breaks down, global economic data is not good, while tariffs on US-Mexican trade are imposed, and subsequent production of auto parts may be greatly affected, further deepening concerns about weak zinc consumption in the market and overall negative macro sentiment. Due to the weak influence of superimposed fundamentals, the expected space for the return of lun zinc is limited, and the weak operation may continue within a day. Shanghai zinc closed negative overnight, pressure above the 5, 10-day moving average, accumulation pool is expected to still be, KDJ indicators turn down, Shanghai zinc back up weak, within days or weak operation. Today's forecast: expected to run in the range of 2450 or 2500 US dollars / ton, Shanghai Zinc main 1907 contract or run in the vicinity of 20000-20500 yuan / ton. Material 0 # domestic fell 330.

price forecast

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