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[notes of SMM Zinc Internal Morning meeting]
Jun 3,2019 09:32CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

On the 3rd of SMM6,

Zinc Morning meeting: macro: the United States levies tariffs on Mexican exports to the United States, causing financial market turmoil and fears of economic recession. Affected by the international trade situation, investors have flocked to safe havens, and basic metals are under pressure.



Fundamentals: spot review on Friday: Shanghai: zinc futures are higher, and at the same time, the price difference between the current month and the next month has narrowed to about 300 to 330 yuan / ton, about 40 to 60 yuan / ton lower than yesterday. Some traders in the morning market intend to push up the price. It began with a rising water supply of about 20 to 30 yuan per ton, but the market shipment is still active, the market demand for receiving goods is relatively poor, the quotation is gradually reduced to about 10 yuan per ton of water, and there is still little feedback from the market, and the transaction is concentrated in the discount of about 10 yuan per ton. Or net average price rises by 10 to 20 yuan / ton or so. Entering the second trading period, the market quotation transaction focused on the discount 20-discount 10 yuan / ton or so, but some consignors still have a strong willingness to wait, the overall quotation transaction is basically the same yesterday. Guangdong: zinc platform finishing, normal shipment of refineries, early morning period, saturation of replenishment in the early downstream, strong fear of falling, obvious weakening of the enthusiasm for taking goods, the demand for superimposed long orders is not urgent, and the overall enthusiasm for taking goods is not good. In the early morning period, the holder did not raise the price, and quoted that the contract for zinc 1907 in Shanghai was raised by 280 yuan / ton, but there was no obvious deal. Later, it was reported that the water for the contract for zinc 1907 in Shanghai was increased by 260yuan / ton, and after the discount for that month intensified, Some traders have some arbitrage space. A small amount of receiving goods, superimposed one-sided downward disk surface, downstream weekend a small number of reserves appear, contributing to part of the transaction. Today's trading is general, the overall transaction is flat. Tianjin: the refinery is shipped normally, and the market supply of goods is abundant. The holder actively shipped the goods in the morning, reporting a discount of 40 yuan per ton to Pingshui for the 1906 contract, but the rising water was down faster than yesterday, the market was still more bearish about the price, and the willingness to pick up the goods was not good enough to wait for the rising water to be lowered. Subsequently, the holder once again downgraded the rising water, to Hongye Bailingchihong and other ordinary mainstream brands quoted in the 06 contract discount of 50 to 70 yuan / ton, Zijin and other high-priced brands reported in the 06 contract flat water. As the supply volume of high-priced brands such as Zijin in Tianjin market is relatively small recently, the overall transaction is better, and the supply of other ordinary brands is mediocre. On the whole, the shipowners are willing to ship goods actively, and the rising water continues to decline. The overall transaction volume was slightly better than yesterday. Inventory: as of May 31, social zinc stocks in the three places recorded a small increase, with an increase of 1600 tons on May 24, an increase of 6600 tons to 143900 tons over May 27. According to the understanding of SMM, Shanghai has increased more, the main reasons: part of the supply of goods in Tianjin and a small number of imports of SMC and other goods to increase the market supply of goods; Tianjin area, this week also appeared a small increase, mainly due to the domestic refineries to increase part of the delivery, superimposed a small amount of zinc to arrive, the lower reaches of the enthusiasm to take goods in general, recorded a small amount of accumulation; Guangdong region, inventory stabilized this week, early pull to Jiangsu and Zhejiang supplies, follow-up or gradually to the local downstream. Zinc price: last Friday, the trend of zinc fluctuated, the pressure above the 5, 10-day moving average, re-explore the integer support, macro risk aversion spread, the increase in long-term supply of zinc led to short pressure, but the spot supply is still tight, It is too early to break the fall, Geneva zinc or try to make up for the decline; Short funds left Shanghai zinc on Friday, reducing positions by more than 12000 hands, reducing positions in the upward situation, Shanghai zinc is still difficult to get rid of the weak trend, Shanghai zinc or pressure 5-day moving average. Today's forecast: expected to run in the range of $2500 to $2550 / ton, Shanghai Zinc main 1907 contract or run in the vicinity of 20350 to 20850 yuan / ton, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc is expected to run at $2500 to $2550 / ton and around 20350 to 20850 yuan / ton. Material 0 # domestic fell 130.

price forecast

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