Prices of rare earth stable, likely to stay rangebound

China's rare earth exports continued to grow from 2016 to 2018, but the growth slowed year by year. And it finally unlocked the downward trajectory since 2019.

If you have been observing the rare earth market for some time, you will find that PrNd oxide is always the thriving one with prices moving all the way up. For instance, the average spot price of SMM PrNd oxide stood at 857,500 yuan/mt on December 1, an increase of 110% from the beginning of the year.

China Southern Rare Earth raised the prices of many medium and heavy rare earth oxides in its latest price issuance. 

China's output of praseodymium-neodymium (PrNd) oxide in September 2021 stood at 5,814 mt, up 1.6% on the month. The increase was mainly contributed by Sichuan, and the output in other regions was largely unchanged, according to SMM research.

The prices of mainstream rare earth products are expected to be strongly supported by the downstream demand in 2022, with prices of mainstream rare earth oxides such as praseodymium oxide, terbium oxide and dysprosium oxide steadily moving upwards, according to SMM. Specifically speaking, China's new energy vehicle production is expected to reach 2.78 million units in 2021 and 14.22 million units by 2030, with a CAGR of 20% during 2021E-2030E. The development of elevators, air conditioners and wind power generation will also sustain its momentum.

Minmetals Rare Earth Company announced on September 23 that it has been notified by China Minmetals Group that a strategic restructuring of the relevant rare earth assets has been under discussion among Aluminum Corporation of China, China Minmetals Group Limited and Ganzhou Municipal People's Government.

Amid the recent strong upward trend of rare earth prices, demand from new energy vehicles (NEVs) and other emerging downstream sectors surge, while tight control over upstream supply side may continue, thus creating the historical pivot for rare earth industry. The supply & demand and national policies are expected to walk in step with each other, opening the door to long-term bullish market. As a result, the classic Davis double play may appear among the performance and valuation of rare earth board.

In recent weeks, the domestic rare earth market as a whole prospered evidenced by overall rising prices of all products. In particular, the price of praseodymium oxide increased significantly among others. In the middle and late June, the market prices of praseodymium rallied, and terbium bottomed out. Later, since mid-July, market prices of light and heavy rare earth rose across the board, and the market is relatively in tight supply resulted from insufficient pre-stockpile or oversold. Hence the short supply of metal intensified in current stage.

The stable listing prices of China Northern Rare Earth will boost market confidence to a certain extent amid a weak rare earth market.

The Ministry of Industry & Information Technology (MIIT) released the first rare earth production quota for the year April 13, cnmn.com reported.