UNITED STATES August 06 2014 1:35 PM
NEW YORK (Scrap Register): Commodities collectively had their worst monthly performance in more than two years during July and the group could push somewhat lower in August.
According to INTL FCStone, August as usually a messy month for equities leading to an even sloppier September.
“If we are correct on our view on U.S. equities, we could see spillover selling hitting precious metals, oil, and some of the base metals, at least initially, before the various asset classes start to decouple,” said INTL FCStone in its monthly outlook.
INTL FCStone's Precious Metals and Energy Outlook for August
Gold is already struggling under the prospect of decent growth in both China and the US lackluster investment demand, poor technicals and the likelihood of higher U.S. rates going into 2015.
Platinum and palladium could also ease a bit this month, although their fundamentals look much better than gold. Oil markets are oversupplied and with various geopolitical hotspots not imperiling oil flows, at least for the moment, we think the path of least resistance is lower still.
INTL FCStone believes that lower trading ranges are also in store for energy products, as well as for natural gas.
INTL FCStone's Base Metals Outlook for August
Base metals have regained some lost ground this week, but INTL FCStone thinks that some in the group are overextended based on fundamentals.
Zinc, in particular, is now at a three-year high and INTL FCStone believes prices have more than discounted the complex’s improving supply/demand profile, while not adequately discounting the very real possibility of a further contraction in the Chinese real estate market.
However, INTL FCStone said lead has not participated fully in the recent base metals advance and we still like its story heading into the second half of the year.
The firm describes itself as neutral on copper at current prices, looking for a sideways range this month.