SMM Morning Review - 2012/5/18 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, May 18 (SMM) – Fitch Ratings downgraded Greek sovereign debt on Thursday, inducing losses in European and US stock markets and helping the US dollar index consolidating at 81. Base metals stayed at the bottom. LME aluminum started at USD 2,034.3/mt and settled up USD 20/mt or 0.98% backed by a technical rebound at USD 2,055/mt, its intraday high, after finding its low of USD 2,026/mt. Transacted contracts dropped 2,465 lots to 9,484 lots and positions added 3,647 lots to 696,713 lots. Aluminum stocks in LME-bonded warehouses climbed 6,400 mt to 4,982,900 mt during the day.

European and US stocks will see more losses due to the downgrade on Greek debt and uncertainty in the euro zone economy. The US dollar index climbed for a 13th successive trading day despite mixed data from the nation. Metals, being pressured, would more likely to stay in a narrow band. LME aluminum should consolidate gains on Thursday and move between USD 2,020-2,060/mt. The most active SHFE aluminum contract for August delivery should test resistance at RMB 16,100/mt, the 10-day moving average, and float between RMB 16,000-16,100/mt. Spot trading will still see discounts of RMB 0-30/mt, despite the wait-and-see sentiment of some traders, as weak demand weighs.