China Aluminum Stocks Return to Growth After Sharp Decline, SMM Says

The MJP aluminium premium has surged to $245–260 per tonne for Q2 2025, far exceeding Japan’s domestic spot price and raising concerns about its role as Asia’s benchmark. Despite this, buyers continue accepting higher premiums to secure stable supply, as producers prioritize shipments to higher-paying markets like the U.S. and Europe. With Japan’s aluminium imports declining, its influence in price negotiations has weakened, shifting power to global suppliers. While MJP is still widely used, its relevance is being questioned as Southeast Asia’s aluminium market grows, potentially paving the way for a more regionally representative pricing model.

Global prices for nickel, copper, and aluminum have been wildly swinging the past two years. With application in renewable energy infrastructure via EVs and a vehicle for sustainability goals, the metals are now pivotal commodities of the game of energy transition. Yet, the double pressure of new energy demands and green regulation is still the prime driver of their volatile prices.

Aluminium Ingot January Production Analysis & February Forecast

According to SMM's research findings, Yunnan Province is currently experiencing a dry season, with hydropower contribution remaining at a relatively low level. Enterprises have no immediate plans for production resumption and await clearer policy guidance from the power sector.

The implementation of Indonesia's ban on bauxite exports since June last year has led to bauxite surplus, brought challenges to consume domestically as the Indonesia's alumina plants have limited capacity. Ronald Sulistyanto, Chairman of the Indonesian Bauxite and Iron Ore Entrepreneurs Association (Asosiasi Pengusaha Bauksit dan Bijih Besi Indonesia - APB3I), highlighted the struggle to secure external investment for alumina plant projects, while some entrepreneurs are forced to cut costs or halt production. However, there is hope for relief through potential relaxation of the export ban policy. Efforts are underway to boost alumina production capacity, although challenges persist in addressing the surplus bauxite issue.

Aluminum stocks in China’s seven major markets hit a new record high and grew as much as 85,000 tonnes from pre-holiday levels, SMM statistics show. Details are shown in the table below:

Aluminum stocks in China’s seven major markets fell this week after growing steadily, SMM statistics showed.

Aluminum stocks began falling in China’s seven major markets, SMM statistics showed.

Aluminum stocks in China’s seven major markets rose further this week, SMM statistics showed.

Aluminum stocks continued growing in China’s seven major markets, SMM statistics showed.