SMM Morning Review - 2012/1/5 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Jan. 5 (SMM) – LME aluminum for three-month delivery hit an intraday high of USD 2,087/mt at the tail of trading on Wednesday backed by a rebound in New York crude. The metal failed to consolidate, however, after the US dollar index returned above 80 and closed USD 4.5/mt or 0.22% lower at USD 2,059.3/mt. Its performance was more stable nevertheless comparing with other base metals.

Sluggish world economies are expected to continue putting pressure on base metals. As such, during today’s trading, SMM expects LME aluminum for three-month delivery to move above the 30-day moving average and between USD 2,035-2,085/mt. Three-month SHFE aluminum is expected to move between RMB 15,850-15,950/mt as it tests support at the 5-day moving average. Spot aluminum will struggle near RMB 16,000/mt and trade at discounts of 30/mt to premiums of 10/mt over the SHFE current-month aluminum price. The traded volume will be limited as both sellers and buyers were hardly interested for the metal.