SMM Morning Review - 2011/10/18 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Oct. 18 (SMM) – The global market sentiment turned bearish again after Germany denied the final solution deadline and the New York Fed said October manufacturing activities contracted for a fifth straight month. The US dollar index again returned to above 77.

After hitting an intraday high of USD 2,256.5/mt, LME aluminum plunged following above news and finally closed at USD 2,205.8/mt, down USD 22.3/mt or 1%. Total positions decreased 2,139 lots to 847,045 lots.

As the bearishness dominated global markets, LME aluminum is expected to drop below the USD 2,200/mt mark after opening today and fluctuate between USD 2,170-2,220/mt. The most active SHFE 1112 aluminum contract is expected to open lower below RMB 16,600/mt and fluctuate between RMB 16,500-16,650/mt. As the SHFE 1111 aluminum contract becomes the current-month contract, spot premiums are expected to be RMB 70-120/mt over the contract. Spot prices are expected to slip further due to low downstream buying interest. Market supply will be sufficient but transactions limited.