SHANGHAI, Aug. 29 (SMM) --
According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA), China’s aluminum output was 1.59 million mt during July, up 12.11% YoY, while YTD output through July was up 5.48% YoY. Annualized capacity of July output was 18.71 million mt, down slightly from June. SMM believes there were no actual production cuts based on reported operations at aluminum smelters, so the lower annualized capacity was largely attributed to errors made during the statistical process. SMM predicts aluminum output will continue to grow during August.
According to the CNIA, China’s output of aluminum semis was 2.01 million mt during July, down 8.8% MoM and in line with SMM’s forecast, but YoY growth still remained above 20%. According to an SMM survey of downstream processors, consumption continued to weaken during August, so there is a strong likelihood that China’s output of aluminum semis will fall below 2 million mt during August. Customs data shows China’s exports of aluminum semis remained above 310 kt during July. Since declines in LME aluminum prices in late July and early August caused a large number of export orders to be cancelled, and since the SHFE/LME aluminum price ratio is still unfavorable for exports of aluminum semis, SMM expects aluminum semis exports to fall significantly during August.