SMM Morning Review – 2011/8/24 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Aug. 24 (SMM) – Despite weak new home sales date from the US, the risk aversion sentiment in the global market lowered overnight following better-than-expected contraction data for manufacturing industries in China and Europe, dragging down the US dollar index by 0.42% to 73.845. London gold prices also fell 3.85% to USD 1,828.74/oz.

US stock prices gained over 3% overnight, and LME aluminum climbed to USD 2,384.4/mt near the 10-day moving average before closing at USD 2,380/mt, up USD 31.8/mt or 1.35%. Both transactions and positions slightly rose during the day, with total positions increasing by 5,378 lots to 738,978 lots.

SMM expects LME aluminum prices to test USD 2,400/mt and fluctuate between USD 2,360-2,410/mt on August 24th. Most active SHFE 1111 aluminum contract prices are expected to open higher above the 60-day moving average and fluctuate between RMB 17,200-17,450/mt. Spot premiums are expected to be RMB 180-250/mt over SHFE current-month aluminum prices. Though goods holders are expected to actively sell their goods, purchases are expected to be sluggish, therefore transactions will be limited.