SMM Morning Review - 2011/8/18 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Aug. 18 (SMM) – Investor risk appetite improved on August 17th following release of a better-than-expected July Producer Price Index (up 0.2% MoM and 7.2% YoY) by the US Department of Labor, and a White House report saying its president Obama was preparing a deficit-cut program to cut more than the target of USD 150 million set by the Congress. As a result, the US dollar index closed 0.37% lower at 73.792 after hitting a new low of 73.452 since July 27th.

LME aluminum prices broke through USD 2,400/mt to a intraday high of USD 2,420/mt during European trading hours on August 17th with positions decreasing by a huge 4.45% to 33,418 lots due to profit taking. Finally closed price was USD 2,398/mt, up USD 23/mt or 0.97%.

SMM expects LME aluminum prices to test the 10-day moving average and fluctuate between USD 2,370-2,420/mt on August 18th. Most active SHFE 1111 aluminum contract prices are expected to open higher above RMB 17,300/mt and fluctuate between RMB 17,250-17,500 to test the 60-day moving average. Spot premiums are expected to be positive RMB 180-260/mt over SHFE current-month aluminum prices. Market transactions are expected to be sluggish due to weak consumption.