SMM Morning Review - 2011/8/16 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Aug. 16 (SMM) – Market optimism towards the talk between German Prime Minister Merkel and French president Sarkozy on solving the euro zone debt crisis led the euro surge overnight to above the 1.44 mark, which finally closed at 1.4437, up 1.35%. US stock prices also rose in response, and the US dollar index fell below 74. Commodity price movements were mixed overnight.

LME aluminum prices failed to climb overnight with rising US stock prices and falling US dollar index, but hit a intraday low of USD 2,366/mt due to low investor confidence caused by high inventories and uncertainties of economic risks. Total positions fell by 6,215 lots during the day. Finally closed price was USD 2,389/mt, down USD 18/mt or 0.75%. SMM expects short-term resistance at USD 2,400/mt.

LME aluminum prices are expected to test USD 2,400/mt and fluctuate between USD 2,365-2,410/mt on August 16th. Most active SHFE 1111 aluminum contract prices are expected to open lower at above RMB 17,300/mt and fluctuate between RMB 17,300-17,600/mt. Spot premiums are expected to be positive RMB 50-150/mt over SHFE 1109 current-month aluminum contract prices as goods holders try to push aluminum prices towards RMB 18,000/mt. Purchases at lower prices are expected to increase and transactions will improve in response.