SMM Morning Review - 2011/3/29 Tin Market

SHANGHAI, Mar. 29 (SMM) -- LME tin futures contract for delivery in three months opened at USD 31,890/mt overnight, and closed at USD 31,500/mt, down by USD 300/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 31,890/mt and the lowest price at USD 31,390/mt. Daily trading volumes were 294 lots and positions were 20,839 lots. LME tin inventories were down by 210 mt to 18,105 mt.

LME base metal prices largely ended with losses over night, as market sentiment was dampened due to investors' concern that China's weakening demand and buying as well as growing inventories will curb investment demand. LME tin prices were largely on downward track on March 28, with losses largely made during the Asian trading hours. LME tin prices fluctuated weakly during the European trading hours, and closed USD 300/mt lower from a day earlier. Affected by strong fundamentals, LME tin price performance was still relatively strong, with prices still above all moving averages.

The second round of quantitative easing monetary policy from the US will last until June, and the US Federal Reserves indicated possible interest rate hike. Whether or not China's tight monetary policy will loose to certain extent in April has become market focus, and expectation of tight monetary policy will weigh on base metal market.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel failed to win a local election on March 27, which weighed on the euro as market concerned over political and economic uncertainties in the European market. Concern over Japan's nuclear crisis renewed again, as radiation level at nuclear plant at fukushima is over limit.

Global monetary policy has become market focus at present. Impact from other factors, including Japan's nuclear crisis, the Libya unrest and the European debt crisis, continue to weigh on base metal prices. SMM expects that LME tin prices will move weakly on March 29, with short-term resistance at USD 32,000/mt, and support at USD 31,000/mt.

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