SMM Morning Review - 2010/2/9 Copper Market

SHANGHAI, Feb. 9 (SMM) -- According to data released from the US during the Chinese New Year holiday, the ISM purchasing managers index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector during January was 60.8, far higher than expectation of 57. Meanwhile, the US employment situation gradually improved, and inflationary pressure may exacerbate. The latest data released from the US also indicated that the US employment market is improving. Last week’s initial jobless claim after seasonal adjustment also declined from 45.4 to 41.5, and unemployment rate during January slipped from 9.4% in December 2010 to 9%, the lowest in two years. On Tuesday, stimulated by robust performance in consuming sector, the US equity market closed with gains again on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed with gains for seven consecutive days and the US dollar was weak. Meanwhile, China’s central bank decided to raise benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. After the announcement, LME copper prices slumped, but LME copper prices later rebounded to USD 10,000/mt due to continuous buying after the news was absorbed. LME copper three month contract price finally rebounded from USD 9,880/mt to USD 10,030/mt, up by USD 10/mt, up by USD 10/mt, or up by 0.10%. LME copper positions were 3,205 lots and positions were 6,567/mt. Market still expects that LME copper prices will be bullish in the long term.

SMM expects that the US dollar index will move in the 77.8-78.2 range, while SHFE copper prices will fluctuate in the RMB 75,000-76,500/mt range, and LME copper price will move between USD 9,900-10,050/mt.

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