[Silicone + Capital Disturbances Led to Significant Price Volatility This Week, Silicon Metal Center Rose WoW]: Silicon metal prices experienced rapid and substantial fluctuations this week, starting weak at the beginning of the week, then surging strongly by mid-week before pulling back. As of November 20, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,500-9,600 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt WoW; #441 silicon was at 9,700-9,800 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt WoW; #421 silicon (used in silicone) was at 9,800-10,200 yuan/mt, flat WoW; and #3303 silicon was at 10,400-10,600 yuan/mt, flat WoW. In the futures market, the most-traded silicon metal contract surged strongly on Wednesday, gaining over 4% and hitting a peak above 9,500 yuan/mt. The main reasons were that after a joint meeting to hold prices firm by monomer plants on Tuesday, offers for various silicone products—a downstream sector of silicon metal—were increased again; planned production cuts in the silicone sector fell short of expectations, having limited impact on silicon metal consumption in the short term; coupled with capital support, the futures market rose rapidly on Wednesday afternoon. After the futures rally, several silicon enterprises in northern China actively sold to spot traders, and the contract pulled back to 9,390 yuan/mt by the close. Market capital sentiment cooled on Thursday, alongside a significant MoM drop in October export data. According to customs data, silicon metal exports in October 2025 were 45,100 mt, down sharply by 36% MoM and 31% YoY. On November 20, the most-traded SI2601 silicon metal futures contract remained weak, closing at 9,075 yuan/mt, down 315 yuan/mt from the previous day but up 55 yuan/mt from last Friday.

Nov. 20 — The SM2601 contract opened at 5,642 yuan/mt and closed at 5,614 yuan/mt, down 0.53%. The highest price during the daytime session was 5,652 yuan/mt, and the lowest price was 5,606 yuan/mt. Trading volume was 148,700 lots, and open interest stood at 438,614 lots. Futures fluctuated downward under pressure today. Cost side, the fourth round of coke price increases was fully implemented, with coke prices stabilizing after the rise, while manganese ore prices remained firm, providing relatively strong cost support. Supply side, new capacity was put into operation in Hunan, and production cuts were more frequent in Yunnan. Factories in other regions maintained scheduled production, keeping overall supply pressure elevated nationwide. Demand side, steel mills had limited capacity to absorb demand, offering insufficient momentum for SiMn prices. Currently, market sentiment toward SiMn shipments remained cautious, with factories reluctant to quote offers, and spot prices were in the doldrums.

This week, the machine utilization rate in the enamelled wire industry rebounded by 0.73 percentage points WoW.

This week, the cobalt sulphate market generally stabilized, but showed a pattern driven by both cost factors and marginal improvements in demand. On the supply side, supported by raw material production costs, smelters showed strong willingness to hold prices firm: quotations for MHP and scrap-derived cobalt sulphate remained in the range of 88,000-90,000 yuan/mt, while quotations for intermediate product-derived cobalt sulphate approached a high of 95,000 yuan/mt. On the demand side, purchase willingness strengthened, with some enterprises opting to accept low-priced old inventory from traders, while others began to take on high-priced new material from smelters. This split purchasing behavior collectively pushed the transaction price center slightly higher. The market is currently still in a critical phase of negotiation between sellers and buyers, with price discrepancies persisting between upstream and downstream players. In the short term, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to remain generally stable with a slight rise. Once downstream customers gradually digest the current price levels and initiate a new round of concentrated procurement, cobalt salt prices are likely to gain stronger momentum and resume an upward trend.

The cobalt intermediate products market held up well this week, with limited overall changes. On the supply side, sellers held prices firm, with the lowest market offers stabilizing around $24.0/lb, establishing a solid price floor. Demand remained generally stable; although some smelters had purchasing intentions, significant losses emerged as raw material costs substantially exceeded cobalt salt selling prices. Coupled with firm seller quotations, actual transactions remained sluggish, resulting in a clear "price without market" pattern. Currently, export approval procedures in the DRC have not yet been completed, and actual exports of intermediate products have not resumed. Considering the approximately three-month shipping period to China, domestic cobalt raw material supply is expected to remain structurally tight until Q1 2026, providing continued support for intermediate product prices.

This week, the domestic spot market for refined cobalt showed a slight upward trend. Supply side, supported by raw material costs, producers and suppliers maintained firm offers, while traders also raised their quotations following the rebound in futures. Demand side, marginal improvements were observed; although downstream buyers primarily made purchases based on rigid demand, inquiries and purchase willingness from some enterprises rebounded after prices stabilized, leading to an overall improvement in market transactions compared to the previous period. Currently, the price spread between refined cobalt and cobalt salts has returned to a reasonable range. Further price increases for refined cobalt will require stronger support from the cobalt salt market.