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[SMM Analysis] Lithium Battery Copper Foil: No Near-Term Supply Constraint, Structural Shortage Risks to Surface in 2027
[SMM Analysis] Lithium Battery Copper Foil: No Near-Term Supply Constraint, Structural Shortage Risks to Surface in 2027
Recently, news of tightening lithium battery copper foil supply has drawn attention from the industry and capital markets. Some worry that tight copper foil supply will immediately drag down battery capacity expansion and even affect end-user deliveries. In reality, however, the copper foil constraint will not materialize right away, and the real risk window may emerge next year. What is copper foil? Why is it so critical? Copper foil is the "conductive skeleton" of the lithium battery anode, an extremely thin copper film only a fraction of the thickness of a human hair. It accounts for a modest share of battery costs (about 10%-15%), but even slight quality fluctuations can affect battery yield and safety. More importantly, copper foil supply is not a case of "having capacity means having product"—a plant may plan annual production of 100,000 mt, but the volume that can actually pass battery maker certification and be supplied steadily is often discounted. The supply-demand gap does exist, but pressure is limited this year In 2026, China's lithium battery copper foil demand is about 1.37 million mt, while actual stable supply is about 1.35 million mt, leaving a gap of about 20,000 mt (corresponding to the copper foil raw material needed for about 50 GWh of lithium battery cells). Against an estimated global lithium battery cell production of about 3,400 GWh in 2026, this figure is not large, and in the short term battery makers can still buffer through inventory, adding suppliers, and adjusting production schedules. Therefore, copper foil will not become a hard constraint on lithium battery production increases this year; the impact will be seen more in tight production schedules at leading suppliers, greater difficulty in placing last-minute orders, and longer delivery cycles for certain specifications. Looking further ahead, however, pressure will rise: the gap in 2027 is about 40,000 mt (corresponding to the copper foil raw material needed for about 100 GWh of lithium battery cells), and it may continue to widen in 2028. Copper foil demand growth is outpacing supply growth, and the situation will tighten further over time. AI copper foil is "distracting" attention, but has not yet stolen the race Recently, AI servers and high-speed communications have been booming, and processing fees for high-end electronic copper foil have surged to 200,000-300,000 yuan/mt, nearly 10 times that of ordinary lithium battery copper foil. This will attract leading copper foil makers to shift capital and equipment toward high-end products, but such production lines have high technical barriers and long certification cycles, so they cannot be converted at scale in the short term. In other words, AI copper foil will not immediately crowd out lithium battery copper foil capacity, but it will raise the "opportunity cost" of lithium battery capacity expansion—when copper foil makers make new investments, they will prioritize the more profitable high-end electronic copper foil. Key judgment: this year can hold, next year depends on positioning The impact of copper foil shortages on the battery industry is progressive. Stage one (this year): inventory and flexible procurement can still hold. Battery makers generally have stockpiles and can also adjust through multiple suppliers, so short-term production increases will not be significantly constrained. Stage two (next year and beyond): if new capacity does not keep pace and long-term contracts are not locked in early, production may indeed be affected. New production line certification takes time, and once the gap widens, spot procurement will struggle to find stable supply sources, and certain specifications may see "capacity exists, but no spot cargo" situations. Stage three (long term): upstream and downstream will become deeply bound. CATL and partners such as Huike will jointly build 400,000 mt of copper foil capacity over the next three years, signaling that battery leaders are shifting from "annual tenders" to "direct participation in plant construction." In the future, battery makers wanting to secure supply will likely need to provide funds, orders, and joint R&D in advance. Conclusion The structural shortage of lithium battery copper foil is already established, but in the short term it will not significantly limit battery production increases, as enterprise inventory and procurement flexibility still provide buffer room. The real test will come in 2027 and beyond: if copper foil capacity expansion progress falls short of expectations and battery makers have not locked in long-term orders and capacity in advance, a tight balance of "orders but no materials" may emerge starting in H2 next year, thereby affecting production release. In summary, the copper foil supply constraint has not yet become the core contradiction this year, but it is shifting from an "option" to a "must-answer question." Battery makers that position long-term contracts and capacity binding in advance will gain a clear supply chain flexibility advantage next year.
Sep 16, 2026 15:18
[SMM Analysis] US Refined Copper Tariff Uncertainty Returns—What Does It Mean for Global Copper Scrap?
[SMM Analysis] US Refined Copper Tariff Uncertainty Returns—What Does It Mean for Global Copper Scrap?
[SMM Analysis: US Refined Copper Tariff Uncertainty Returns—What Does It Mean for Global Copper Scrap?] US refined copper tariff uncertainty is reshaping global copper flows. If tariffs proceed, a wider COMEX-LME spread could draw more cathode into the US and support scrap demand elsewhere. If delayed or cancelled, the spread may narrow and weaken scrap payabilities. However, low global scrap inventories and tight VAT-invoiced supply in China make a sharp correction unlikely.
Sep 11, 2026 16:56
 Solid-State Battery Weekly | Steady Progress — Cooling Hype, Stronger Efforts
Highlights: This week (Sep 4–10, 2026), in solid-state batteries, nine government departments included automotive solid-state batteries in the “15th Five-Year” special standards system; Xiamen Tungsten and Tinci advanced pilot production of lithium sulfide and electrolytes; Easpring and GEM shipped cathodes at ton-level; silicon-carbon anode projects expanded capacity; CATL said small-batch production is expected by 2027.
Sep 11, 2026 16:00
[SMM Analysis]Downstream Demand Improves Marginally, Non-Oriented Silicon Steel Prices to See Modest Gains in September
Monthly Review & Outlook: Downstream Demand Improves Marginally; Non-Oriented Silicon Steel Prices to See Only Modest Gains in September August Price Review Source: SMM Non-oriented silicon steel prices remained generally weak in August. Prices of mainstream grades edged lower across the board, with both high-grade and medium-low grade products under pressure. The monthly average price of benchmark grade B50A800 fluctuated at a low level. Although the supply-demand gap narrowed slightly in August, supply remained relatively loose. Lacking strong support from downstream demand, prices had limited upward momentum. The market consolidated at low levels overall; declines slowed, yet no clear rebound emerged. Fundamental Analysis Source: SMM Domestic output of non-oriented silicon steel fell month-on-month in August, a notable drop from July, as steel mills proactively cut production schedules. By grade mix, medium-low grades accounted for 66%, high grades 19%, and new-energy grades rose to 15%. Compared with July, the share of medium-low grades declined while new-energy grades increased, and high-grade share stayed stable. Production capacity continued shifting toward high-end products. Production scheduling for September retains divergent features: medium-low grades will rebound to 69%, high grades fall to 18%, and new-energy grades dip slightly to 14%. Steel mills plan to raise output of medium-low grades in September while trimming the proportion of high-grade production. Overall, August production cuts eased supply pressure to some extent, yet the rebound in medium-low grade output in September reflects steel mills’ improved market expectations for the month. Source: Public data, SMM Output of major domestic home appliance categories fell seasonally in July, with production of air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines and color TVs retreating from earlier peaks. Monthly consumption of non-oriented silicon steel by the home appliance sector declined accordingly. By consumption breakdown, air conditioners represented 65% of silicon steel use in home appliances, making them the largest consumer; refrigerators, washing machines and color TVs accounted for 20%, 11% and 4% respectively. Total silicon steel consumption by home appliances dropped month-on-month in July, dragged down primarily by weaker air conditioner demand. China’s new-energy vehicle output stayed robust in July. Production of new-energy passenger and commercial vehicles maintained strong resilience, while output of conventional fuel vehicles remained relatively steady. The automotive sector is a core consumer of non-oriented silicon steel. In terms of consumption structure, new-energy passenger vehicles made up 75%, new-energy commercial vehicles 22%, and traditional vehicles only 3%. New-energy models have become the dominant source of automotive silicon steel consumption. Monthly silicon steel consumption by the auto sector edged up month-on-month in July. High production schedules for new-energy vehicles underpinned silicon steel demand and offset part of the home appliance demand slump. Nevertheless, incremental demand from automobiles was insufficient to fully counterbalance the decline in home appliances, leading to only limited overall improvement in downstream demand for non-oriented silicon steel. September Price Outlook Looking ahead to September 2026, on the supply side, planned output of non-oriented silicon steel in China is set to rise, with growth concentrated in medium-low grades. For one thing, the traditional off-season is drawing to a close; downstream orders for home appliance and motor manufacturers are expected to pick up, boosting steel mills’ willingness to produce. For another, leading producers including Baowu lifted base prices by RMB 50 per tonne for September, showing clear intentions to prop up and raise prices. This is expected to restore steel mill margins and support production. On the demand side for home appliances: production continued slowing in August. Most manufacturers scheduled high-temperature shutdowns and equipment maintenance in early August. Orders and sales were mixed. Air conditioners and refrigerators saw weaker orders and sales due to sluggish end-market demand. Washing machines entered their peak season, yet demand fell short of expectations. For the automotive sector, market performance is projected to be weak early in the month and strong later. In early August, offline sales were hampered by high temperatures, typhoons and other weather disruptions. Demand started to release from mid-August onward. Multiple new models launched by leading new-energy original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) were priced in line with consumer expectations, driving notable increases in store foot traffic and orders, marking a market recovery. On the cost side, September marks the traditional “Golden September” consumption peak. With hot and rainy weather abating, end-user project construction and downstream restocking demand are anticipated to improve marginally. Hot rolled coil prices are projected to trend higher in September. In summary, SMM forecasts that medium-low grade non-oriented silicon steel prices will trend upward amid volatility in September 2026, with moderate upside potential.
Sep 11, 2026 14:05

Latest News

[SMM Rare Earth Morning Meeting Summary] Pr-Nd oxide continued to decline in the afternoon, with terbium oxide leading the losses; metals followed the downtrend, and trading was sluggish.
[Pr-Nd oxide extends afternoon decline, terbium oxide leads losses, metals follow lower with sluggish trading] Yesterday, Pr-Nd alloy continued to edge lower in the afternoon, tracking raw material prices, but downstream inquiries showed no significant increase. Actual negotiations remained centered on low-priced cargoes, with transactions dominated by small rigid-demand orders and overall trading activity subdued. In the medium-heavy rare earth segment, terbium metal declined notably, with high-priced deals continuing to face resistance and suppliers increasingly offering discounts to move shipments. Dysprosium-iron alloy quotes held steady amid sluggish inquiries.
15 hours ago
South Korea and Five Central Asian Countries Establish Critical-Mineral Supply Chain Framework
South Korea’s Ministry of Trade and Industry announced on September 17 that 9 government-level industrial and supply-chain cooperation documents had been signed with five Central Asian countries during meetings held from September 14 to 16. It was the first time in 34 years of diplomatic relations that South Korea and all five countries jointly discussed industrial cooperation and critical-mineral supply chains, including lithium and rare earths. The documents comprise one multilateral industrial and supply-chain cooperation MOU and eight bilateral agreements. South Korea and Uzbekistan agreed to establish a full-cycle cooperation platform covering critical-mineral exploration and processing. The private sector signed 116 MOUs: 78 involving Kazakhstan, 5 Uzbekistan, 14 Turkmenistan and 19 at the Korea–Central Asia Business Summit.
16 hours ago
SMM Rare Earth Afternoon Trading Comment on September 16
Sep 16, 2026 17:11
Rare earth market prices in the doldrums, actual transactions lack momentum [SMM Rare Earth Daily Review]
[SMM Rare Earth Daily Review: Rare earth market prices in the doldrums, actual transactions struggle to gain traction] Overall, the market shifted from yesterday's consolidation to a weaker trend today, with declines concentrated mainly in the terbium and Pr-Nd series. The transaction side remained sluggish, with downstream demand dominated by small rigid orders and actual negotiations centered around low-priced cargoes, while inquiries for other varieties stayed steady. In the short term, with the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday approaching, pre-holiday stockpiling expectations still exist, but both the cost side and transaction side have weakened, and Pr-Nd prices may move sideways within a narrow range. Whether the upward momentum can follow through still depends on the pace of stockpiling demand release from magnetic material enterprises.
Sep 16, 2026 13:40
[SMM Rare Earth Morning Meeting Summary] Pr-Nd oxide consolidated on a subdued note in the afternoon with more seller concessions, dysprosium remained stable while terbium held steady at low levels, and magnetic material activity was moderate.
[Pr-Nd oxide consolidates on a subdued note in the afternoon with more seller concessions, dysprosium stable while terbium holds at lows, magnetic material activity moderate] Yesterday, Pr-Nd oxide was affected by fluctuations in futures prices. In the afternoon, seller concessions increased somewhat, while magnetic material enterprises showed weak willingness to enter the market. Low-priced sources remained the mainstay of transactions, with actual shipments limited. Dysprosium oxide quotes held steady, with limited inquiries and sporadic deals. Terbium oxide high-level offers still struggled to find takers, and suppliers made slight price concessions to facilitate shipments, with actual negotiated prices on the lower side.
Sep 16, 2026 09:36
SMM Rare Earth Afternoon Trading Comment on September 15
Sep 15, 2026 17:16
Pr-Nd Consolidates in Rare Earth Market, Prices Remain Stable Overall [SMM Rare Earth Daily Review]
[SMM Rare Earth Daily Review: Rare earth market Pr-Nd consolidates, prices overall stable] Overall, the market today continued the pattern of "unchanged quotes, subdued trading": the cost side lacked directional guidance, with the market moving sideways for two consecutive days as both upstream and downstream remained in a wait-and-see stance. On the transaction side, Pr-Nd products were dominated by small rigid-demand orders, with actual negotiations centered on low-priced cargoes; the terbium series saw limited room for price concessions, with deals settling at the lower end, while inquiries for other varieties remained steady. In the short term, pre-holiday stockpiling expectations and cost support together form the lower bound for Pr-Nd prices, but an upward breakout still requires downstream actual order fulfillment and acceptance of high-priced cargoes. Pr-Nd prices are likely to drift higher within a narrow range.
Sep 15, 2026 14:40
[SMM Rare Earth Morning Meeting Summary] Pr-Nd series stopped rising and shifted to a stable weak balance, dysprosium series temporarily stable while terbium continued to decline, magnetic material activity was average
[Pr-Nd series stops rising and turns stable with a weak balance, dysprosium series temporarily stable while terbium continues to decline, magnetic material activity remains moderate] Last week, Pr-Nd oxide consolidated within a narrow range, with upstream and downstream temporarily in a weak balance, while demand-side inquiries and purchases remained cautious; dysprosium oxide quotes were stable, market inquiries saw limited changes, and transactions were mainly small orders for immediate needs; terbium oxide continued to decline, with higher prices still struggling to gain acceptance, suppliers increasing shipments at lower prices, and transactions mostly settling at low levels.
Sep 14, 2026 09:31
SMM Rare Earth Afternoon Trading Comment for September 11
Sep 11, 2026 17:12
Rare Earth Prices Remain Stable Overall, Market Trading Continues to Be Weak [SMM Rare Earth Daily Review]
[SMM Rare Earth Daily Review: Rare Earth Prices Remain Stable Overall, Market Trading Continues to Be Weak] Overall, the market lacks clear directional guidance, with most product quotes holding steady and trading activity remaining subdued: Pr-Nd inquiries are limited, with actual negotiations focused on low-priced cargoes; terbium sellers are increasingly willing to offer discounts, with transactions mostly settling at lower levels; dysprosium, gadolinium, holmium, and erbium inquiries are stable, with deals dominated by small rigid-demand orders. In the short term, given the approaching Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, Pr-Nd product prices may drift higher, supported by pre-holiday stockpiling demand from magnetic material enterprises, but whether the gains can be sustained will depend on the actual fulfillment of downstream orders.
Sep 11, 2026 14:03
USA Rare Earth Acquires Serra Verde for $2.8B, Expands Heavy Rare Earth Mining Outside Asia
【SMM Rare Earth Flash】 U.S. rare earth producer USA Rare Earth (USAR) has completed its US$2.8 billion acquisition of Brazilian producer Serra Verde, adding one of the few operating heavy rare earth mines outside Asia to its growing mine-to-magnet business. Serra Verde's Pela Ema ionic clay operation in Brazil is expanding toward a target capacity of 6,400 t/y of rare earth oxides, providing USAR with direct dysprosium and terbium supply. The deal is the latest step in USAR's effort to build a fully integrated rare earth supply chain spanning mining, separation, metals, and magnets. The company fully consolidated the Round Top project in Texas in March and acquired UK-based metals and alloys producer Less Common Metals last September. The transaction is backed by government support: Serra Verde's production is covered by a 15-year offtake agreement, and USAR has secured up to US$1.6 billion in funding from the U.S. Department of Commerce. Former Serra Verde CEO Thras Moraitis has joined USAR's board and will assume the CEO role on October 1.
Sep 11, 2026 11:57
[SMM Rare Earth Morning Meeting Summary] Pr-Nd oxide futures edge up, low-priced supply tightens; dysprosium turns down, terbium stabilizes; magnetic material activity remains moderate
[Pr-Nd oxide futures edge up with low-priced supply tightening, dysprosium turns down while terbium stabilizes, magnetic material activity remains moderate] Yesterday, Pr-Nd oxide futures edged up slightly. Suppliers raised their offer centers and low-priced supply decreased accordingly. Buyers showed limited willingness to rush to buy amid continuous price rise, and actual transactions did not expand significantly. Dysprosium oxide continued to decline, with downstream inquiries sluggish and high-priced supply struggling to close deals, keeping shipment pressure on suppliers unabated. Terbium oxide halted its decline after consecutive pullbacks, as market participants shifted to a wait-and-see stance.
Sep 11, 2026 10:02
SMM Rare Earth Afternoon Trading Comment on September 10
Sep 10, 2026 17:38
Rare earth prices overall in the doldrums, variety trends diverge with stagnant trading [SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review]
[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare earth prices overall in the doldrums, with divergent trends across products and stagnant trading] Pr-Nd oxide prices were reported at 730,000-732,000 yuan/mt, falling first and then stabilizing during the week. From the beginning of the week to Wednesday, prices pulled back continuously along with the futures market, and low-priced offers increased at one point. On Thursday, the futures market stopped falling and recovered, and suppliers tentatively raised their quotations. Low-priced sources were somewhat reduced compared with the earlier period, but downstream willingness to chase higher prices remained limited, and actual transaction volumes continued to be constrained. Demand-side order growth was not obvious, and raw material purchases were mainly based on buying on dips.
Sep 10, 2026 15:53
[SMM Analysis] Indonesia Revises Nickel Ore HPM Once Again, Pulling Limonite Prices Toward Market Levels
[SMM Analysis] Indonesia Revises Nickel Ore HPM Once Again, Pulling Limonite Prices Toward Market Levels
Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) recently further revised the benchmark price (HPM) formula for nickel ore, under Kepmen ESDM No.363.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2026 which took effect on September 15, 2026. This revision specifically targets the two parameters that have had the greatest impact on the pricing of low-grade limonite used as feedstock for HPAL — the nickel correction factor (CF) for the 1.2% nickel grade range and the cobalt coefficient
Sep 16, 2026 12:16
[SMM Analysis] Lithium Battery Copper Foil: No Near-Term Supply Constraint, Structural Shortage Risks to Surface in 2027
[SMM Analysis] Lithium Battery Copper Foil: No Near-Term Supply Constraint, Structural Shortage Risks to Surface in 2027
Sep 16, 2026 15:18
[SMM Analysis] Sustained Zinc Inventory Drawdown in China: Key Drivers & Outlook
[SMM Analysis] Sustained Zinc Inventory Drawdown in China: Key Drivers & Outlook
9 hours ago
[SMM Analysis] DRC Cobalt Exports Surge, Shifting Near-Term Bargaining Power to Buyers
[SMM Analysis] DRC Cobalt Exports Surge, Shifting Near-Term Bargaining Power to Buyers
Sep 11, 2026 19:02
[SMM Analysis] US Refined Copper Tariff Uncertainty Returns—What Does It Mean for Global Copper Scrap?
[SMM Analysis] US Refined Copper Tariff Uncertainty Returns—What Does It Mean for Global Copper Scrap?
Sep 11, 2026 16:56
 Solid-State Battery Weekly |  Steady Progress — Cooling Hype, Stronger Efforts
 Solid-State Battery Weekly | Steady Progress — Cooling Hype, Stronger Efforts
Sep 11, 2026 16:00
[SMM Analysis]Downstream Demand Improves Marginally, Non-Oriented Silicon Steel Prices to See Modest Gains in September
[SMM Analysis]Downstream Demand Improves Marginally, Non-Oriented Silicon Steel Prices to See Modest Gains in September
Sep 11, 2026 14:05
Latest News
SMM Rare Earth Afternoon Trading Comment on September 17
8 hours ago
Rare earth market in the doldrums, Pr-Nd and medium-heavy rare earth both pull back [SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review]
9 hours ago
Rare earth market prices remain weak, downstream still holds a wait-and-see attitude [SMM Rare Earth Daily Review]
11 hours ago
[SMM Rare Earth Morning Meeting Summary] Pr-Nd oxide continued to decline in the afternoon, with terbium oxide leading the losses; metals followed the downtrend, and trading was sluggish.
15 hours ago
South Korea and Five Central Asian Countries Establish Critical-Mineral Supply Chain Framework
16 hours ago
SMM Rare Earth Afternoon Trading Comment on September 16
Sep 16, 2026 17:11
Rare earth market prices in the doldrums, actual transactions lack momentum [SMM Rare Earth Daily Review]
Sep 16, 2026 13:40
[SMM Rare Earth Morning Meeting Summary] Pr-Nd oxide consolidated on a subdued note in the afternoon with more seller concessions, dysprosium remained stable while terbium held steady at low levels, and magnetic material activity was moderate.
Sep 16, 2026 09:36
SMM Rare Earth Afternoon Trading Comment on September 15
Sep 15, 2026 17:16
Pr-Nd Consolidates in Rare Earth Market, Prices Remain Stable Overall [SMM Rare Earth Daily Review]
Sep 15, 2026 14:40
[SMM Rare Earth Morning Meeting Summary] Pr-Nd series remained stagnant all day with no drivers, dysprosium stable while terbium's decline paused temporarily, magnetic material scrap continued to see a wait-and-see stance.
Sep 15, 2026 10:16
SMM Rare Earth Afternoon Trading Comment on September 14
Sep 14, 2026 18:03
Prices outside China remained stable this week, with the US-Brazil supply chain construction achieving both funding and project milestones [SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review]
Sep 14, 2026 09:41
[SMM Rare Earth Morning Meeting Summary] Pr-Nd series stopped rising and shifted to a stable weak balance, dysprosium series temporarily stable while terbium continued to decline, magnetic material activity was average
Sep 14, 2026 09:31
SMM Rare Earth Afternoon Trading Comment for September 11
Sep 11, 2026 17:12
Rare Earth Prices Remain Stable Overall, Market Trading Continues to Be Weak [SMM Rare Earth Daily Review]
Sep 11, 2026 14:03
USA Rare Earth Acquires Serra Verde for $2.8B, Expands Heavy Rare Earth Mining Outside Asia
Sep 11, 2026 11:57
[SMM Rare Earth Morning Meeting Summary] Pr-Nd oxide futures edge up, low-priced supply tightens; dysprosium turns down, terbium stabilizes; magnetic material activity remains moderate
Sep 11, 2026 10:02
SMM Rare Earth Afternoon Trading Comment on September 10
Sep 10, 2026 17:38
Rare earth prices overall in the doldrums, variety trends diverge with stagnant trading [SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review]
Sep 10, 2026 15:53