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In 2026, the correction in lithium carbonate prices drove up lithium battery production costs. Coupled with uncertainties in lithium resources supply, cost pressure across the new energy industry became increasingly prominent. Leveraging the advantages of abundant sodium resources, balanced distribution, and controllable costs, sodium-ion batteries have leapt from being a “backup option” for lithium batteries to a key direction for industry breakthrough...

Mar 20, 2026 15:00

[SMM Analysis] 2026 Sodium-Ion Battery Competitive Landscape: Na‑ion Pioneers vs Lithium Battery Giants

【SMM Analysis】Middle East Turmoil Triggers Trade "Mismatch": China Accelerates to Fill 2.3 MT Supply Vacuum in SEA

Middle East tensions have sparked a massive steel trade "mismatch." Iran's blocked exports created a 2.3-million-ton billet vacuum in Southeast Asia, while the Red Sea crisis stalled China's flat steel shipments to the Gulf. Consequently, China and India are rapidly absorbing SEA's diverted billet orders. SMM projects that blocked flat steel returning to China's domestic market, combined with surging overseas billet demand, will accelerate the narrowing of the domestic HRC-rebar spread.

Mar 20, 2026 09:51

Regional Aluminum Premiums Surge May Impact China's Primary Aluminum Net Imports

SMM, March 20: Imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s primary aluminum imports were about 189,000 mt in January, down 0.1% MoM and up 17.1% YoY; in February, China’s primary aluminum imports were about 202,000 mt, up 6.6% MoM and up 0.7% YoY. In January-February 2026, China’s cumulative primary aluminum imports totaled about 391,000 mt, up 8.0% YoY. Exports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s primary aluminum exports were about 13,000 mt in January, down 64.6% MoM and up 56.6% YoY; in February, China’s primary aluminum exports were about 10,000 mt, down 24.6% MoM and up 187.9% YoY. In January-February, cumulative primary aluminum exports totaled about 23,000 mt, up about 94.8% YoY. Net imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s net primary aluminum imports were 176,000 mt in January, up 15.9% MoM and up 14.9% YoY; in February, China’s net primary aluminum imports were 192,000 mt, up 9.0% MoM and down 2.6% YoY. In January-February, China’s cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 367,000 mt, up 5.0% YoY. (The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010.) Although China’s net primary aluminum imports maintained positive growth in January-February 2026, expectations of a sharp rise in regional aluminum premiums outside China will challenge this situation. As of March 20, SMM’s Japan MJP spot premiums for aluminum ingot stood at $255/mt, up 45.7% from month-end February. Currently, some market participants were quoting Japan MJP CIF premiums for Q2 at around $350-353/mt, up about 80% from $195/mt in Q1; the US Midwest DDP aluminum premium stood at 105.25¢/lb, equivalent to $2,110/mt. As of March 13, Europe’s P1020A aluminum ingot duty-paid premiums stood at $470/mt, up about 27.0% from month-end February, while Europe’s P1020A aluminum ingot duty-unpaid premiums stood at $375/mt, up 27.2% from month-end February. The sharp rise in regional aluminum premiums outside China is expected to divert some aluminum originally planned to flow into China, and China’s net aluminum imports are expected to decline YoY in 2026. The reason for this phenomenon lies in expectations of a contraction in aluminum supply outside China caused by reduced aluminum supply in the Middle East. As of March 20, Qatar Aluminum announced that it would maintain a 60% operating rate, involving 260,000 mt of shut capacity; Bahrain Aluminum announced the shutdown of Lines 1-3, involving about 310,000 mt of capacity. In total, 570,000 mt of aluminum capacity in the Middle East has been affected. Iran is at the center of the conflict, and the stability of its production faces severe challenges. In addition, some raw and auxiliary materials in the Middle East rely on imports, and the geopolitical conflict in the region has affected passage through the Strait of Hormuz, to some extent undermining raw material supply stability at certain aluminum plants. At present, aluminum plants in Saudi Arabia and Turkey have domestic upstream bauxite and alumina support and can achieve self-sufficiency, with room for exports; Bahrain Aluminum and Qatar Aluminum rely entirely on imported alumina, while the UAE has 2.5 million mt of alumina capacity, but its bauxite relies 100% on imports. Although Oman’s aluminum plants also depend on imported raw materials, their geographic location is outside the Strait of Hormuz, so the level of risk is relatively low. If transport routes remain closed and no new routes can be opened, aluminum production in the Middle East is expected to be significantly affected. However, according to the latest foreign media reports, Bahrain Aluminum is exporting 40-60% of its aluminum ingots through Saudi Arabia’s Port of Jeddah, with an overland transport distance of 1,400 kilometers, and UAE’s Emirates Global Aluminium is attempting to import alumina raw materials through ports in Oman. If new transport routes are opened, the production reduction risk at aluminum plants in the Middle East is expected to decline markedly. Going forward, continued attention should be paid to production developments at aluminum plants in the Middle East, transport route conditions, and trends in LME aluminum inventory.

Mar 20, 2026 18:17

Magnesium Market Tug-of-War: Geopolitics, Cost Support, Demand Surge vs Ample Supply [SMM Analysis]

[Magnesium Prices Stuck in Dilemma: Geopolitical Tensions, Cost Support, and Demand Surge Clash with High Supply] Reviewing the recent magnesium market, magnesium prices repeatedly fluctuated within the 16,600-16,700 range, with a relatively slow pace.

Mar 20, 2026 15:56

Aluminum Inventory Buildup in China Slows Down, Turning Point to Emerge in Late March [SMM Analysis]

After the Chinese New Year holiday, China’s aluminum market continued to see an inventory buildup, with social inventory rising लगातार and repeatedly hitting highs for recent years. However, as the traditional peak consumption season gradually got underway, downstream pickup enthusiasm rebounded, pressure from aluminum ingot backlogs eased significantly, and the pace of inventory buildup has already shown signs of slowing...

Mar 22, 2026 23:24

Amid this structural adjustment in global regional demand, with gains in some markets offsetting declines in others, China’s prebaked anode exports can offset the pressure from weakening demand in traditional markets through market structure optimization and a shift in the center of orders. Coupled with its own capacity and supply chain advantages, China’s prebaked anode exports are expected to maintain a certain increase for the full year.

Mar 20, 2026 20:14

Nickel Ore "Sluggish RKAB Approvals Drive Potential for Ore Price Hikes" Indonesian domestic nickel ore prices have risen significantly increase this week. For the first half of March, the Indonesian Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM) was set at $17.329/dmt, an increase of 1.32%. However, according to SMM data, average premiums has increased for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $35, $39, and $39.5/wmt, respectively, with 1.6% grade reaching a delivered price of $65.6–$74.6/wmt. This strengthening of premiums reflects both the release of restocking demand from smelters and pessimistic expectations regarding RKAB quota reductions. Simultaneously, the delivery price for 1.2% grade limonite has edged up to $24–$26/wmt. Pyrometallurgical Ore: From a supply and demand perspective, Sulawesi is transitioning into the dry season; Konawe has reached optimal production levels, while Morowali is recovering from previous floods. However, Halmahera continues to be hampered by thunderstorms, resulting in high moisture content and dragging down mining efficiency. The market is facing a clear trend of declining ore grades. While some NPI smelters have begun accepting grades of 1.45% or lower, the supply of high-grade saprolite remains tight. As of mid-March, the ESDM has approved approximately 100 million tons of RKAB quotas. The remaining 160 to 170 million tons are expected to be processed by the end of March. However, due to the Eid al-Fitr (Lebaran) holidays (March 18–24), approval progress is expected to lag, exacerbating short-term supply tightness. Faced with resource uncertainty, some smelters have increased trade bonuses to secure raw materials. Transactions for low-grade saprolite are emerging at fixed prices lower than high-grade ores. Conversely, Limonite prices remain low due to a tailings dam landslide at a major MHP project, which has forced production lines to operate at low loads, hindering demand recovery. However, Limonite prices are expected to eventually follow Saprolite upward due to new project stockpiling and external island demand. Hydrometallurgical Ore Although the spot supply of hydrometallurgical ore is relatively sufficient, a tailings dam landslide at an MHP project in a certain industrial park has forced related production lines to operate at low loads, leading to a temporary weakness in demand. However, given the concerns over RKAB approval uncertainty, the stockpiling needs of newly commissioned projects, and the growing demand from outer islands, hydrometallurgical ore prices are expected to follow the trend of pyrometallurgical ore and remain elevated. On March 3, 2026, Tri Winarno, Director General of Mineral and Coal, clarified that rumors of a "25%–30% universal increase in RKAB quotas" are false. Quota supplements will be based on individualized assessments of production capacity and compliance, with the approval process not expected to start until the second half of 2026. Market Outlook: Due to the overall delay in RKAB approvals, nickel ore prices in April are expected to remain resilient with a strong "easy to rise, hard to fall" trend. Nickel Pig Iron "NPI Prices See Periodic Retracement as Tug-of-War Intensifies Between Cost Support and Downstream Pressure" The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price rose by RMB 0.3 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1090.2 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index decreased by USD 0.65 per nickel unit to an average of USD 138.28 per nickel unit. This week, following consecutive price drops in stainless steel finished products and LME/SHFE nickel, the High-Grade NPI market experienced panic selling and low-price liquidation, entering a phase of periodic decline. From the supply side, With ore prices remaining elevated, smelter production costs continue to rise. However, triggered by the sharp decline in futures markets, some traders began offloading arbitrage stocks at low prices, leading to a general softening of upstream quotes.From the demand side, Weighed down by falling stainless steel prices and the influx of low-priced spot goods, most steel mills have lowered their bid intentions, exerting downward pressure on NPI prices. Overall, while cost support for smelters remains, downstream suppression is evident. The combination of futures-driven market sentiment and loosening upstream quotes has led to a periodic retracement in High-Grade NPI Overall outlook, market transactions will remain under pressure in the short term as the cost-tug-of-war between upstream and downstream continues. However, the downward room for NPI prices is expected to be limited.

Mar 20, 2026 18:58

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[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] Canada Nickel Embeds Carbon Capture to Pioneer Net-Zero Mining at Crawford

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] UK Defends 50% Steel Tariff Hike to Protect Ailing Industry

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] EU Ferrosilicon Crisis Driven by Energy Costs, Not China

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] EU Commission to Amend ETS, Proposes $35B Investment Booster

The European Commission will update Emissions Trading System (ETS) free allocation benchmarks and utilize the Market Stability Reserve to curb carbon price volatility "within days". President von der Leyen announced a medium-term ETS review to establish a "realistic trajectory" for free allowances beyond 2034. The EU is also proposing a $35 billion "ETS Investment Booster" fund to finance decarbonization projects, prioritizing lower-income states. To address soaring energy costs, the Commission plans to allow member states to reduce grid charges for energy-intensive industries and mandate lower taxes on electricity compared to fossil fuels. This follows intense pressure from steelmakers and EU nations demanding an urgent ETS overhaul by July.

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] Deutsche Bahn Lags in Green Steel Adoption Amid Bureaucracy

Deutsche Bahn (DB) is lagging far behind its European neighbors in adopting reduced-emission green steel, despite its potential to be a massive lead market. At the Zukunft Stahl conference, Saarstahl Rail highlighted that while they secured large green rail contracts with the UK (78,000 tonnes) and France (170,000 tonnes/year), DB only contracted a 1,000-tonne trial. DB representatives cited complex internal bureaucracy and unresolved political funding questions regarding who pays the green premium. Industry leaders criticized the paradox of the German government subsidizing green steel tech with billions while failing to create a domestic market for DB's estimated 250,000-tonne annual rail demand.

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] EU Auto Supply Chain Pressured by Chinese Imports and Low Growth

According to EUROMETAL reports, the European automotive components sector faces mounting pressure from Chinese competition, rising imports, and stagnant growth. At the EUROMETAL Steel Day, Autoliv's Cosmin Bakai noted global light vehicle production will grow ~1.3% by 2030, but Europe remains weak. While Chinese automakers plan facilities in Europe, initial capacities (50,000-100,000 units) won't immediately drive major local steel demand. Crucially, component trade is outpacing vehicle trade; Chinese component imports to the EU doubled over three years to $8 billion. Meanwhile, $11 billion in EU component exports to the US face tariff pressures. Consequently, the short-to-medium-term outlook for European automotive steel demand remains bleak.

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] EU Plans Permanent Steel Trade Measure, Doubling Tariffs and Slashing Quotas

According to EUROMETAL reports, the EU will implement a permanent steel trade measure on July 1, 2026, replacing the expiring safeguard system. The new framework drastically tightens import protections by slashing the annual quota volume by 47% (from ~34M mt to 18.3M mt) and doubling the out-of-quota tariff to 50%. A strict "melt and pour" rule will also be introduced, requiring importers to prove where the steel was originally melted and cast to access country-specific quotas, significantly increasing customs complexity. This permanent measure applies to all non-EEA nations, removing previous exemptions for developing countries and FTA partners. Legal experts warn this aggressive protectionist shift could provoke retaliatory countermeasures if negotiations fail.

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] European Stainless Flat Prices Gain Momentum Amid Tight Imports and Soaring Scrap Costs

According to EUROMETAL, European stainless steel flat product prices are climbing steadily, driven by soaring scrap costs, extended mill lead times, and a sharp decline in imports resulting from the CBAM and upcoming safeguard measures. For May delivery, Cold Rolled Coil (CRC) deals are settling between $2,877 and $2,960/tonne, while Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) is trading around $2,645 to $2,702/tonne. Producers, facing tight scrap supplies—with 304 scrap expected to exceed $1,610/tonne in April—are already pushing June CRC offers to $2,990/tonne, with projections hitting $3,105/tonne by June/July to offset squeezed margins. Despite these hikes, downstream demand remains largely subdued as buyers struggle to absorb the higher costs.

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] EUROFER Urges Immediate Action on Energy Costs, Targeting ~$58/MWh

The European Council's recent conclusions acknowledging the critical need for affordable energy represent a positive step, but immediate and effective implementation is crucial for the sector's survival. Director General Axel Eggert warned that the ongoing Middle East crisis has heavily exposed the industry's vulnerability to fossil-fuel-driven price spikes, emphasizing that without securing competitive electricity costs of around $58/MWh (€50/MWh), energy-intensive sectors will fail to compete globally or achieve their decarbonization targets. EUROFER is urgently calling for the acceleration of renewable energy adoption, the wider use of long-term instruments like PPAs, and critical reforms to the EU electricity market design to fully decouple power prices from fossil fuels.

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] AEMC Advances Nikolai Nickel Project Toward 2026 PEA Amid FAST-41 Permitting Boost

According to market reports, Alaska Energy Metals Corporation (AEMC) is rapidly advancing its flagship Nikolai Nickel Project, capitalizing on a recent 18% rally in global nickel prices that underscores a tightening market. To accelerate the project's development, the company recently closed a $1 million private placement and secured a critical listing on the U.S. Permitting Council's FAST-41 Transparency Dashboard, a federal initiative designed to streamline and expedite mine permitting. Furthermore, AEMC is bolstering its downstream potential through memorandums of understanding (MOUs) with RecycLiCo Battery Materials for hydrometallurgical processing and with EV manufacturer Lucid Group.

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] EU's Choice of Jervois Global's SMP Nickel Refinery Raises Questions

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] Outokumpu's Kemi Mine Advances Circular Economy with ~$324 Million Investment

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] Global Steel Wire Market to Reach $153.18 Billion by 2032

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] VULKAN INOX Highlights Efficiency of Stainless Steel Abrasives at AMPP 2026

At the AMPP Annual Conference 2026, German manufacturer VULKAN INOX showcased the operational advantages of using stainless steel abrasives for industrial surface preparation. John Jaros, Technical Sales Manager, emphasized that unlike traditional blasting media such as garnet or aluminum oxide, stainless steel abrasives offer significantly higher wear resistance and degrade much more slowly, allowing for extended reuse. This enhanced durability not only ensures a more consistent surface profile for better coating adhesion and corrosion protection but also drastically reduces dust generation and contamination risks.

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] Jindal Stainless Opens 1.2 MTPA Melt Shop in Indonesia

JSL has successfully commissioned a new 1.2 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) stainless steel melt shop (SMS) in Indonesia ahead of schedule through a joint venture. This milestone brings the company's total annual melting capacity to 4.2 MTPA, reinforcing its raw material security and integrated growth strategy. Concurrently, JSL announced a fresh investment of approximately $108 million (₹900 crore) to augment its cold rolling capacities at its Hisar and Kharagpur facilities in India, expected to be operational by Q2 FY28. These combined upstream and downstream expansions are tailored to produce high-value, thinner cold-rolled products, strategically positioning the company to target a global sales volume of 3.5 MTPA by FY29 with a projected double-digit compound annual growth rate.

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] European Stainless Steel Surcharges Surge in April 2026, Driven by Ferrochrome Costs

According to market reports, European stainless steel alloy surcharges have seen a significant increase for April 2026. Surcharges for Grade 1.4301 (304) rose by approximately 3.6%, notably diverging from LME nickel prices, which actually declined by nearly 1% month-on-month. The primary catalyst behind this surge is the escalating price of ferrochrome, fueled by higher procurement costs, elevated energy prices, and the compounding financial impact of the CO2 tax under the CBAM, fully effective since January 1, 2026. This cost-push is most evident in chrome-heavy grades, with the surcharge for Grade 1.4016 (430) jumping by more than 5.4% compared to the previous month.

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] Lifezone Metals Advances Kabanga Nickel Project with Strong Financing

Lifezone Metals (NYSE: LZM), the company's flagship Kabanga Nickel Project in Tanzania has officially advanced to execution readiness, backed by robust project economics and the successful consolidation of 100% ownership of Kabanga Nickel Limited. The company reported a year-end cash balance of $20.1 million and is further supported by a $60 million bridge loan facility from Taurus Mining Finance, which provides crucial funding for critical early-stage infrastructure and pre-Final Investment Decision (FID) development activities. Moving forward, Lifezone aims to drive long-term growth by securing additional strategic investment partnerships and advancing new battery metals recycling initiatives, positioning the Kabanga project as a premier global source of high-grade nickel sulfide.

[SMM Steel] Global crude steel production decreases in Feb y-o-y

[SMM Steel] According to World Steel Association (worldsteel) data released on March 25, 2026, global crude steel production in February totaled 141.8 million tons, a 2.2% decrease year-on-year. For the first two months of 2026, total global output reached approximately 298 million tons, down 1.5% compared to the same period last year.

【SMM Flash News】Indonesia Set to Decide on Coal Export Tax and RKAB Production Hike Tomorrow

Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa confirmed on Wednesday (March 25) that the government will finalize the specific tariff for a coal export tax and revised 2026 RKAB production targets during a high-level meeting tomorrow, March 26. President Prabowo Subianto has already indicated a specific "target figure" for the tax to capture windfall profits as global coal prices soar above US$135 per ton. Minister Purbaya noted that the government will prioritize fiscal impact over corporate resistance, as coal hits US$135/t. Minister Airlangga confirmed 2026 RKAB production hikes to offset global energy risks, while President Prabowo ordered an immediate shift from diesel (PLTD) to solar energy to counter crude prices breaching US$100/bbl.

SHFE Cast Aluminum Alloy Warrants Drop to 42,944 MT on March 25

[SMM Flash News] SHFE data showed that as of March 25, the total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warrants was 42,944 mt, down 2,519 mt from the previous trading day. By region, the total registered volumes were Shanghai (2,635 mt, down 120 mt), Guangdong (16,686 mt, down 571 mt), Jiangsu (3,608 mt, down 601 mt), Zhejiang (12,565 mt, down 1,107 mt), Chongqing (3,664 mt, down 60 mt), and Sichuan (1,267 mt, down 60 mt).

[SMM Analysis] 2026 Sodium-Ion Battery Competitive Landscape: Na‑ion Pioneers vs Lithium Battery Giants

In 2026, the correction in lithium carbonate prices drove up lithium battery production costs. Coupled with uncertainties in lithium resources supply, cost pressure across the new energy industry became increasingly prominent. Leveraging the advantages of abundant sodium resources, balanced distribution, and controllable costs, sodium-ion batteries have leapt from being a “backup option” for lithium batteries to a key direction for industry breakthrough...

Mar 20, 2026 15:00

【SMM Analysis】Middle East Turmoil Triggers Trade "Mismatch": China Accelerates to Fill 2.3 MT Supply Vacuum in SEA

Mar 20, 2026 09:51

Regional Aluminum Premiums Surge May Impact China's Primary Aluminum Net Imports

Mar 20, 2026 18:17

Magnesium Market Tug-of-War: Geopolitics, Cost Support, Demand Surge vs Ample Supply [SMM Analysis]

Mar 20, 2026 15:56

Aluminum Inventory Buildup in China Slows Down, Turning Point to Emerge in Late March [SMM Analysis]

Mar 22, 2026 23:24

Geopolitical Conflicts Reshape Prebaked Anode Exports; SE Asia Demand Supports Full-Year Growth 【SMM Analysis】

Mar 20, 2026 20:14

【SMM Analysis】Weekly Review of Indonesian Nickel Market - Mar 20

Mar 20, 2026 18:58

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] Canada Nickel Embeds Carbon Capture to Pioneer Net-Zero Mining at Crawford

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] UK Defends 50% Steel Tariff Hike to Protect Ailing Industry

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] EU Ferrosilicon Crisis Driven by Energy Costs, Not China

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] EU Commission to Amend ETS, Proposes $35B Investment Booster

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] Deutsche Bahn Lags in Green Steel Adoption Amid Bureaucracy

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] EU Auto Supply Chain Pressured by Chinese Imports and Low Growth

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] EU Plans Permanent Steel Trade Measure, Doubling Tariffs and Slashing Quotas

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] European Stainless Flat Prices Gain Momentum Amid Tight Imports and Soaring Scrap Costs

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] EUROFER Urges Immediate Action on Energy Costs, Targeting ~$58/MWh

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] AEMC Advances Nikolai Nickel Project Toward 2026 PEA Amid FAST-41 Permitting Boost

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] EU's Choice of Jervois Global's SMP Nickel Refinery Raises Questions

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] Outokumpu's Kemi Mine Advances Circular Economy with ~$324 Million Investment

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] Global Steel Wire Market to Reach $153.18 Billion by 2032

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] VULKAN INOX Highlights Efficiency of Stainless Steel Abrasives at AMPP 2026

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] Jindal Stainless Opens 1.2 MTPA Melt Shop in Indonesia

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] European Stainless Steel Surcharges Surge in April 2026, Driven by Ferrochrome Costs

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] Lifezone Metals Advances Kabanga Nickel Project with Strong Financing

[SMM Steel] Global crude steel production decreases in Feb y-o-y

【SMM Flash News】Indonesia Set to Decide on Coal Export Tax and RKAB Production Hike Tomorrow

SHFE Cast Aluminum Alloy Warrants Drop to 42,944 MT on March 25