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Hosted by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), the 2026 SMM Australia Metals & Investment Seminar concluded successfully in Sydney on October 26. The event brought together industrial representatives, miners, smelters and processors, investment firms and industry researchers from across the globe. Attendees engaged in in-depth discussions on supply-demand fundamentals, price cycles, resource development and mining investment opportunities across ferrous, non-ferrous and battery metal value chains. It serves as a dedicated platform for information exchange, business matching and investment assessment. Notably, this marks the first event hosted by SMM since the launch of its Australia office. From digital data offerings to on-site gatherings, the seminar has solidified SMM's on-the-ground service footprint in the Southern Hemisphere. The event featured keynote speeches and panel discussions. Shirley Wang, SMM Vice President, Henry Liu, Director of SMM's Australia branch, alongside SMM colleagues and industry guests shared insights spanning global research, consulting, key account services and on-ground operations. Drawing on the latest customs statistics, mine ramp-up schedules and downstream demand data, speakers reviewed market trends and shared medium-to-long-term forecasts for ferrous, non-ferrous and battery metals. Steel: Furnaces Still Burning, Exports Surging Industry cycle is first reflected in inventories. Henry Liu, Country Director – Australia, SMM, noted that direct exports of steel products and steel billets edged up 1.2% to 136 million mt this year, continuing steady growth after last year's nearly 20% surge; when including the invisible steel exports embodied in products such as automobiles and construction machinery (estimated at approximately 170 million mt), the total scale of China's steel exports is considerable. In contrast, inventories that are circulating in the market have continued to climb—by mid-October, social inventory of steel products had risen to 148 million mt and are still rising. Why is it so hard to shut down the furnaces? The answer comes down to one word: "cost." Once a blast furnace is shut down, restarting it is quite expensive; only large-scale operation can spread fixed investment. As a result, production cuts are mostly marginal and short-lived.. In contrast, Southeast Asia is injecting new variables into the global steel landscape. ASEAN crude steel capacity officially crossed the 100 million mt threshold this year, nearly doubling from 53 million mt in 2015; announced new projects for 2026–2028 total 37 million mt per year, and at a 55% realization rate, at least 20 million mt of new capacity will start production by 2028. More notably, over half of this capacity pipeline carries Chinese investment, and the Chinese speed of "funding in place means construction begins" is making capacity materialize faster than expected in this hot region. ASEAN crude steel production is projected to reach 65 million mt in 2026, with Indonesia and Vietnam contributing three-quarters; steel imports in the region remain as high as about 50 million mt, with exports at about 22 million mt—the former one-way buyer is transforming into a regional processing base that "imports semi-finished products and exports finished steel." Iron ore: The average price this year is forecasted to be $100/mt, falling to $94/mt in 2027 and $90/mt in 2030; at the $85 line, high-cost mines in China will be the first to exit, building a floor for prices. About 90% of China's iron ore reserves are low-grade, and import dependence is expected to remain above 80% for the long term. The real variable comes from Simandou: shipments in 2026 are expected to be 20 million mt, but as production accelerates, year-end shipment levels will reach an annualized 25 million mt, with a base case of 106 million mt in 2030, and CIF costs of only $60–65/mt, firmly positioned at the lower end of the global cost curve — the first wave of its impact will hit high-grade imported ore, before spilling over to non-mainstream ore and Chinese concentrates. for steel demand, a quiet gear shift is underway. In the first eight months of this year, under the pressure of a 4% decline in overall infrastructure investment, internet service industry investment rose 42% YoY and information transmission investment grew 28%——the new round of investment favours digitalized, energy-oriented "new infrastructure," whose steel intensity falls far short of the railways and real estate of the past. Digital energy networks lean more on copper than steel, and this wave has opened a window for copper, while for steel it brings only mild warmth. Copper and Aluminum: Supply Determines Prices, Strategic Attributes Stand Out The stories of aluminum and copper are both written in "electricity." Global power grid investment is growing at a 12.8% CAGR; investment value rises nearly 30% each year, while line length grows only 2%——capital is flowing toward higher-voltage lines, substations, and digital equipment. There are three driving forces: the urgent need for renewable energy grid connection and consumption, rigid global electricity consumption growth of about 4% per year, and the aging grid assets in developed economies that urgently need renewal. From a trend perspective, grid-related aluminum use is growing notably faster than copper use, and aluminum consumption per unit line length is expected to catch up and surpass copper; at the same time, global data center capacity continues to expand and the share of AI data centers keeps rising, opening new space for copper in power distribution, liquid cooling cold plates, and piping——copper excels at conductivity, while aluminum offers superior heat dissipation and load-bearing performance. The two metals each occupy their positions in different scenarios, and it is not simply a zero-sum trade-off. Two metals, two key positions. Allen Cui, Consulting Director at SMM , also analyzed the future trends of global copper and aluminum supply: new global aluminum smelting capacity is migrating along the coordinates of "cheap, stable, and secure electricity": Indonesia will become the core hub of new capacity in 2027, with Indonesia alone accounting for most of the growth. The US will see its first new primary aluminum smelters in decades around 2029, and Finland, Angola, the Middle East, Vietnam, and India also have projects in the pipeline. The supply-demand balance is shifting subtly: China's aluminum capacity utilization rate has approached 98.5%, leaving almost no room for further growth; over 2 million mt of annual capacity in the Middle East remains offline, gradually restarting in Q4. Asia contributes 63% of global copper cathode production, with China's vast smelting and refining network serving as the dominant supply hub; pyrometallurgy is concentrated in Asia and Europe and relies on imported concentrates, while hydrometallurgy is rooted beside mines in Chile, Peru, and Central Africa. The issue lies in the mismatch of pace: smelters can be built in a few years, but mines take decades to develop. A new wave of smelting capacity has been released in a concentrated manner since 2025, while concentrate supply struggles to keep pace, intensifying competition for raw materials and pushing TCs to historic lows. As a result, the supply-demand balance is being rewritten: the global copper cathode surplus is gradually narrowing, approaching balance in 2028, shifting to a deficit in 2029, and widening further in 2030. The price center is also moving upward accordingly. Copper has become a strategic metal for major global economies. Battery Metals: Energy Storage Booms, Lithium, Nickel, and Cobalt Diverge Shirley Wang, Vice President and Head of Global Industry Research at SMM, shared her insights on the new energy end-use markets. The energy storage market is booming: global energy storage demand growth is as high as 64% this year, with a projected 22% CAGR over the next four years; China remains the largest market, while Europe, the US, and other regions hold a 22%—25% share with absolute volumes continuing to rise. She particularly highlighted an easily misread "funnel"——battery cell shipments are 37% higher than battery cabin volumes, and battery cabin volumes are 55% higher than final grid connections, simply because the delivery and grid connection cycle from cell to cabin takes 3 to 6 months in China and 7-14 months ex-China. In addition, the AC-side battery export tax rebate policy has front-loaded approximately 20—30 GWh of demand, putting growth at risk of pulling back slightly next quarter. EVs have entered a phase of steady maturity: demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of about 10% from this year to 2030, with the global penetration rate rising from 26% to 48%. Vehicle battery capacity grew 28% YoY from January to June, serving as a hidden engine driving demand. Next year, total power battery production will grow 15%, with LFP's share rising from 72% in 2026 to 74%, and high-nickel NCM's share increasing from 54.4% in 2026 to 57.3% in 2027—cost reduction and higher energy density are advancing in parallel. The lithium tide is moving to the rhythm of capital expenditure. The heavy investment from 2022 to 2023 will translate into a supply surge from 2026 to 2028, while the spending contraction of the past two years sets the stage for a supply pullback from 2030 to 2031. This year, global primary lithium resources will grow by 458,000 mt, with about 500,000 mt expected in both next year and 2028, with growth coming mainly from China, Chile, Argentina, Australia, and Zimbabwe. On the cost side, the "ceiling" remains supported by spodumene mines in Africa, reaching as high as 70,000-75,000 yuan/mt. An easily overlooked detail is that lithium carbonate produced as a byproduct of aluminum and tungsten smelting accounts for about 3.3% of total production, with output fluctuating in response to prices and showing high price sensitivity. On the price outlook, lithium prices are expected to remain at relatively high levels this year, but the rebound path is far from smooth, especially in Q1 next year, when the impact of futures on spot prices will strengthen unprecedentedly. The decade of nickel tells a story of "declining grades." The average grade of Indonesian nickel ore has slipped from 2.0% a decade ago to 1.4% today, and may further decline to 1.3% in ten years. The share of high-grade limonite ore has dropped from nearly 60% to 41%. The supply structure is being reshaped accordingly: NPI production is gradually receding, while MHP and refined nickel are taking over. Class 1 nickel and nickel sulfide supply are recovering, and the price spread between NPI and Class 1 nickel will gradually narrow, as if returning to the landscape of a decade ago. In the short term, the overall supply surplus is putting nickel prices under pressure. In the medium and long term, as Class 1 nickel inventories are drawn down and declining ore grades push up NPI costs, prices will eventually return to levels supported by rising costs. Cobalt's outlook remains clouded. Supply growth mainly comes from Indonesia and the DRC; the former's global share in primary resources is expected to rise to 30% by 2030. On the demand side, cobalt used in LCO plunged from 85,000 mt to less than 60,000 mt; even with depressed prices, downstream players are still unwilling to restock. By 2030, cobalt used in LCO is expected to consolidate at lows, with no clear expectations for growth; while ternary batteries see total volume growth, cobalt intensity per unit continues to be diluted. Rising MHP production further squeezes cobalt hydroxide's share—market sentiment is tilted toward caution. Roundtable: A Trio of Scarcity, Policy, and Capital The first panel discussion, titled " The Resilience of Chinese Metal Demand ", was moderated by Jean Tang, Commercial Director at SMM . The panelists' views were largely aligned: China's demand has not stalled; rather, it is shifting gears—the old engine of real estate is gradually slowing, while new engines such as the power grid, new energy, and high-end manufacturing are taking over in turn. Aluminum is the best illustration: cooling real estate has dragged down part of metals consumption, while 5 trillion yuan of power grid investment under the "15th Five-Year Plan" , together with EV lightweighting, will add 2.8 million mt of growth; total demand is rising steadily. The fact that the capacity utilization rate in China is approaching 98.5% has long served as solid support for aluminum prices. Lithium is boosted by the dual drivers of energy storage and EVs, while nickel is underpinned jointly by stainless steel and ternary batteries—this resilience on the demand side is the first cornerstone for prices to stabilize after a steep decline. From demand to supply, the dividing line of scarcity becomes clear: copper holds structural geological scarcity—ore grades are declining year by year, production growth is challenging, and coupled with rigid demand growth, it was regarded by the panelists as the metal most worthy of commitment over a 10-year horizon. Nickel's fate lies not underground but in policy, and the market will need several years to return to balance. Aluminum's costs are jointly shaped by electricity and policy, while bauxite and alumina resources remain abundant. Chris Barbarossa , Corporate Development Manager at Nickel Industries, discussed nickel market dynamics based on frontline operating experience: quota adjustments and tighter approvals for new smelting projects have set a clear floor for nickel prices; current LME inventory of about 270,000 mt does not look bloated against a larger demand base, and once supply tightens it will be quickly absorbed. The discussion then delved deeper into lithium and nickel markets. Two key takeaways stood out. First, investors are no longer chasing “more tonnes” in scale, but “tangible cash returns” — dividends and share buybacks are replacing endless reinvestment. The iron ore sector's shift toward value over scale offers a valuable lesson for lithium. Second, supply discipline matters. Overexpansion early in a bull market only delays cash flow realization. For Australian nickel, restarts are barely feasible in the short to medium term: they require exorbitant nickel prices and massive fresh capital expenditure. Meanwhile, consumers are far more focused on EV cost‑performance than they are willing to pay a green premium. The second panel discussion, with Cherry Li, key client manager at SMM as the moderator, Austin Yun, senior equity research analyst at Macquarie Capital, Angela Durrant, commodities analyst of base metals at Commonwealth Bank, and Kenneth Wan, senior investment manager at Drummond Knight Asset Management (DKAM) as the panelists, focused on the competitiveness, policy, and capital of Australia's mining sector. The advantages are clear: the country supplies more than 30% of the world's high-quality spodumene, operates the largest independent rare earth system outside China, and its high-grade resources keep local projects firmly in the middle of the global cost curve. The challenges are equally unavoidable: lengthy approval cycles and hard-to-control delays mean that missing a price peak results in a double loss of returns and cash flow; local chemical processing capacity also lags behind its international peers, with a lithium hydroxide plant in Western Australia taking three and a half years of optimization just to reach a 51% operating rate. Rare earths illustrate what policy can achieve: The successful establishment of a diversified supply system driven by funding support has proven the effectiveness of government intervention, yet this experience has not been widely replicated in the lithium sector. The capital market's direction is also shifting: low-dilution financing is becoming mainstream, with minority stake, product credit monetization, and royalty transactions each showing their strengths, and some national governments are beginning to participate directly in mining projects through minority equity stakes, sharing risks and returns with industry participants. As for where tomorrow's opportunities lie, the panelists' answers largely pointed to two types of players: low-cost operators capable of weathering cycles, and diversified producers with cash flow from other commodities and the flexibility to advance or retreat at will. Closing Remarks: Riding the Tides, Onward to the Next Chapter Though the half-day agenda was brief, the perspective stretched from the lingering heat of blast furnaces to the copper glow of power grids, from the laterite of Indonesia to the spodumene of Australia, ultimately converging on four points of consensus: copper is the most strategically significant base metal of the next decade; aluminum's pricing power is accelerating its shift toward energy cost-advantaged regions; battery metals can only secure long-term returns through supply discipline; and Australia, with its world-class resource endowment and stable environment, will remain a key destination for global mining capital. As the event drew to a close, attendees were invited to a networking reception for one-on-one in-depth conversations with speakers and analysts. The SMM research team also welcomed industry friends to further discuss report data and forecasting models via email or in person. As the first event held since the establishment of SMM's Australia office, this seminar served as both a clash of perspectives and a test of local service capabilities. With that, the 2026 SMM Australia Metals & Investment Seminar came to a successful conclusion. Our heartfelt thanks go to every speaker and attendee who traveled from afar. We look forward to seeing you again on the next leg of the journey.

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