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In August 2026, Indonesia's total monthly sulphur imports were 275,300 mt, down 62.1% MoM and down 27.7% YoY. The main import sources were Canada (76,100 mt), Kuwait (50,900 mt), Qatar (36,700 mt), the UAE (31,600 mt), India (26,400 mt), the US (24,600 mt), South Korea (6,900 mt), Japan (5,200 mt), Singapore (5,000 mt), China, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, China, the UK, Oman, Vietnam, and Malaysia;

The ex-China PV market failed to sustain a broad-based price recovery in the third quarter of 2026. Weak demand and inventory liquidation pushed prices lower in July. Rising upstream material and module production costs in China then prompted manufacturers to raise price guidance and pull back from some low-priced orders in August. By September, Europe's summer holidays had ended and buyers in some markets were preparing for year-end projects. Yet stronger enquiries had not translated into a broad increase in new orders, leaving price gains concentrated in particular markets, specifications and transactions. According to SMM market findings, China FOB prices for standard TOPCon modules recovered from their August lows but remained below early-July levels at the end of September. Southeast Asian CIF prices also recovered modestly, with Indonesia relatively weak. European warehouse prices rebounded briefly before low-priced inventory and project economics reasserted pressure. India retained distinct DCR and non-DCR pricing segments, with non-DCR prices posting a modest increase over the quarter. The main shift in Q3 was therefore not full cost pass-through, but a reduced willingness among manufacturers to cut prices broadly. Buyers' negotiating leverage remained intact. Costs shaped suppliers' asking prices; project returns, inventory composition and policy eligibility determined what buyers would actually pay. China FOB: a tentative recovery leaves a gap between price guidance and transactions China's module export prices remained under pressure in July. Europe's summer slowdown, limited incremental orders from emerging markets and geopolitical disruption to some Middle Eastern deliveries left manufacturers relying on discounts to maintain shipments. Standard products offered limited differentiation, while large utility-scale buyers retained considerable bargaining power. Attempts by Chinese manufacturers to hold prices did not materially accelerate overseas procurement. Standard TOPCon FOB prices reached a near-term low in early August. SMM's average price for 210R modules fell from US$0.1090/W on 1 July to US$0.1055/W in early August, before recovering to US$0.1075/W on 30 September. The closing price was about 1.9% above the trough but still 1.4% below early July. Prices for 182 mm and 210 mm modules fell by approximately 0.9% and 2.3%, respectively, over the same period. The rebound therefore recovered only part of the earlier decline rather than establishing a sustained quarterly uptrend. Averaging the published daily assessments gives 210R prices of approximately US$0.1083/W in July, US$0.1061/W in August and US$0.1068/W in September. September was about 0.6% above August but remained below July. Some manufacturers raised overseas offers and price guidance by approximately US$0.003–0.0045/W in mid-to-late August. The slower recovery in actual transactions highlighted the limits that end-user demand placed on cost pass-through. Leading manufacturers became more willing to withdraw exceptionally low offers in September, but low-priced supply did not disappear. Some second-tier suppliers continued to discount selected orders, while distributors cleared 610–625 W modules and other less sought-after specifications. Higher costs for newly produced modules thus coexisted with discounted legacy inventory, preventing a uniform price increase across the market. Product mix also influenced pricing. High-power TOPCon and back-contact (BC) modules retained premiums, but these did not consistently widen. Between 17 August and 30 September, the average high-power 210R price fell from US$0.114/W to US$0.113/W. BC 210R prices briefly reached US$0.119/W before returning to US$0.121/W at quarter-end, while the BC 54-cell-format price rose from US$0.136/W to US$0.137/W. Efficiency, format suitability and distributed-generation demand supported differentiated products. Even so, suppliers still had to adjust high-power premiums relative to standard modules to secure orders: technological progress did not automatically translate into greater pricing power. Southeast Asia: stronger policy expectations meet small, price-sensitive orders Southeast Asian module prices broadly declined, stabilised and then recovered partially during Q3, although differences between markets persisted. Low China FOB prices capped the upside for delivered offers, while freight and delivery costs provided some support to CIF prices. Suppliers sought to pass through higher costs in August, but transactions remained concentrated in immediate project requirements, small low-priced orders and distributor replenishment. Malaysia had relatively firmer demand support. Progress on utility-scale projects and the Large Scale Solar 6 (LSS6) programme improved medium-term expectations, while approaching year-end installations generated some enquiries and purchases. The average CIF price for 210R modules fell from US$0.1150/W on 3 July to US$0.1115/W in early August, before recovering to US$0.1135/W in late September. It nevertheless remained below its early-quarter level. Project pipelines and tender progress attracted interest without yet generating procurement on a scale sufficient to sustain price increases. Thailand and Vietnam also recovered from their August lows. Procurement in Thailand was influenced by progress towards Thai Industrial Standards Institute (TISI) certification and expectations around market access. As more suppliers obtain certification, temporary supply constraints should ease. However, stocking ahead of a certification transition is not equivalent to sustained growth in installation demand. Vietnam relied more heavily on commercial and industrial, and self-consumption projects, with procurement still shaped by approvals, grid connections and execution schedules. Prices across module sizes in both markets moved within narrow ranges, and low prices remained a key purchasing criterion. Indonesia was weaker. The average CIF price for distributed-generation TOPCon modules fell from US$0.1150/W on 3 July to US$0.1110/W on 25 September, a decline of approximately 3.5%. The market was still awaiting government project quotas for the second half of the year, alongside details of procurement by state utility PLN and the proposed initial 30 GW solar tender. Uncertainty over quotas and implementation kept developers cautious, preventing policy expectations from translating into large import orders. TKDN local-content requirements further restricted the projects accessible to imported modules, limiting near-term demand growth. In the second half of September, some Southeast Asian distributors stepped up clearance of modules rated at 620 W and below. Even where manufacturers raised guidance for standard and high-power products, lower-power stock offered an alternative for price-sensitive buyers. Further regional price recovery will depend not simply on the size of project pipelines, but on when orders are placed, how quickly legacy inventory clears and whether efficiency and delivery requirements justify higher prices. Europe: the end of summer holidays does not resolve weak project economics Europe experienced some of the clearest price pressure in Q3. Summer holidays slowed project activity and procurement from July, while readily available warehouse stock and distributor inventory pressure pushed standard module prices lower. Replenishment for distributed-generation projects and demand for some high-efficiency products proved more resilient, but were insufficient to offset ample standard TOPCon supply and aggressive discounting. Between 3 July and 25 September, the average Rotterdam warehouse price for 450–475 W distributed-generation TOPCon modules fell from €0.1197/W to €0.1127/W, down approximately 5.8%. The 620–640 W distributed-generation price declined from €0.1097/W to €0.1067/W, or about 2.7%. Utility-scale 620–640 W and 710–730 W prices fell by approximately 3.4% and 4.5%, respectively. Despite intermittent recoveries, all four assessments ended below their early-quarter levels. Cost pressure prompted manufacturers to test higher European offers in August, briefly lifting some distributed-generation prices. After the summer break, however, September activity initially consisted mainly of delayed deliveries, urgent replenishment and small distributor purchases. New projects and large utility-scale orders had yet to expand materially. Shipments for pre-Christmas delivery were also under way, but largely fulfilled existing contracts. Some hundred-megawatt-scale projects scheduled for delivery next year still secured supplier discounts, leaving limited price support from new demand. Low power purchase agreement (PPA) tariffs were a major constraint. Some awarded projects had already locked in low electricity sale prices and thin returns. Higher module prices would raise upfront investment and reduce internal rates of return further. Developers therefore preferred to negotiate discounts, split procurement into stages or defer commitments rather than accept supplier price increases. Financing costs and grid-connection delays lengthened payback periods and further weakened the incentive to accelerate equipment purchases. Negative electricity prices also weighed on investment expectations. Frequent low or negative prices during midday solar generation peaks in parts of Europe reduced realised solar capture prices and increased curtailment and revenue-volatility risks. Investors became more cautious about projects with significant merchant exposure or without secured long-term revenues, restraining equipment procurement. Storage deployment is accelerating, but grid approvals, revenue models, financing and construction lead times continue to limit how quickly it can relieve peak solar integration constraints. Without timely storage and grid investment, project economics cannot improve quickly enough to accommodate rising module costs. Continued liquidation of lower-power inventory also gives buyers leverage and cheaper alternatives. Growing interest in high-power TOPCon does not mean that all high-efficiency products can command higher prices. Buyers still compare system returns, module premiums and installation requirements. Suppliers must demonstrate that a higher module price delivers corresponding system value. Whether Europe moves beyond price competition in Q4 will therefore depend on new contracts and inventory clearance, not simply stronger enquiries after the summer holidays. India: a tighter window for front-loading US shipments threatens non-DCR demand and raises return risks India retained separate pricing dynamics for modules that meet domestic content requirements (DCR) and non-DCR modules in Q3. Local-content rules, the cost of Indian-made cells and procurement for policy-supported projects sustained the DCR premium. Non-DCR prices were more exposed to imported cell costs, demand from eligible projects and changes in export orders. SMM's weekly assessments show that the average DCR price fell from US$0.2485/W on 3 July to US$0.2425/W in late July, recovered to US$0.2450/W by late August and then remained stable. It ended the period about 1.4% lower. Non-DCR prices started at US$0.1410/W, dipped to US$0.1405/W in late July, rose to US$0.1455/W by late August and then eased to US$0.1435/W in September, where they stabilised. The net increase was approximately 1.8%, leaving the DCR premium at about 70.7% at quarter-end. Indian policy also influenced the two price series. Limited transitional provisions under List II of the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) preserved a temporary procurement window for eligible non-DCR products in certain net-metering and open-access projects, diverting some orders from DCR products. DCR local-content requirements and ALMM eligibility rules continued to apply separately. On the export side, US stockbuilding ahead of Section 232 implementation was an important source of support for Indian non-DCR orders in Q3. SMM research indicates that some US importers brought forward procurement and deliveries to build inventory before the new tariffs and minimum import prices take effect on 4 December. This policy-driven stocking, combined with higher upstream costs, supported Indian non-DCR orders and prices in August. It did not imply a corresponding increase in US installation demand. The US has since tightened that window for accelerated shipments. Anti-stockpiling controls effective from 22 September through 3 December limit new importers registered with US Customs on or after 6 August 2026 to 55 relevant modules and 2,000 cells per week, unless they obtain a waiver approved by the US Department of Commerce. Established importers face scrutiny of unusually high volumes and may have further imports suspended if shipments materially exceed historical levels. The weekly limits apply to specified new importers, not to a single nationwide quota shared by all US importers. Non-DCR prices had already eased from their peak in the first half of September as the initial procurement rush cooled and buyers resisted higher offers. The late-September anti-stockpiling controls further curtailed the scope for concentrated shipments through new importers, exposing policy-driven US stockbuilding demand to a pronounced slowdown. If regular project demand and approved imports do not provide sufficient support, Indian manufacturers could face fewer subsequent orders, revised delivery schedules and pressure on non-DCR prices. Cargoes already in transit also face potential disruption. If restrictions prevent an importer from clearing goods as planned and the necessary approval is not obtained, some modules could be held at port, diverted or returned to origin. This would increase storage and logistics costs and tie up working capital. Any returned cargoes re-entering India, or US-bound modules redirected to other markets, could add supply and intensify non-DCR price competition. Meanwhile, final US antidumping and countervailing duty determinations on Indian crystalline-silicon cells and modules have added uncertainty to US-bound orders; subsequent duty orders remain dependent on the injury determination. Non-DCR products face both prospective tariff costs and limits on accelerated shipments, whereas DCR demand remains primarily tied to policy-supported projects and year-end deliveries within India. The two segments therefore retain distinct demand drivers. Inventories: India's cell drawdown has not been matched by modules Inventories reinforce the point that stable prices do not mean supply-demand pressure has cleared. SMM's daily data show Indian DCR module stocks rising from 13.16 GW on 20 August to 13.48 GW on 30 September. Despite intermittent reductions, inventories remained elevated. Cell stocks, by contrast, declined sharply in late September to 3.62 GW at month-end. Cell destocking has not yet translated into a sustained, simultaneous reduction in module inventories. The cell drawdown may reflect a combination of shipments, procurement and production adjustments rather than stronger end-user demand alone. DCR prices would gain firmer demand support in Q4 only if project procurement grows consistently and module inventories also decline. Q3 policy review: the US curbs stockbuilding while Asian projects and market-access rules shape procurement Policy affected Q3 markets through three main channels: purchases brought forward, project execution and supplier eligibility. The US announced Section 232 import adjustments in August, encouraging some procurement ahead of implementation on 4 December. September's final antidumping and countervailing duty determinations covering India, Indonesia and Laos, followed by anti-stockpiling controls, imposed further constraints on advance purchases. The temporary order boost created by the policy window is now at risk of fading, leaving export plans more dependent on genuine project demand and compliant import arrangements. Asian markets were more strongly influenced by local project pipelines and market-access requirements. India's July clarification of ALMM transitional arrangements preserved a temporary window for eligible non-DCR orders. Malaysia's LSS6 programme and associated storage projects expanded the medium-term pipeline. Indonesia's proposed initial 30 GW tender lifted expectations, but government quotas, specific tender packages and TKDN rules continued to shape import orders. In Thailand, product testing, factory audits and TISI certification affected supplier eligibility and delivery schedules, while mandatory implementation arrangements remained subject to the final regulations. These developments did not produce synchronised restocking. Instead, demand became more differentiated between policy-window purchases, scheduled project deliveries and inventory built ahead of certification changes. In Q4, actual project execution and quota releases, compliant imports and the clearance of low-priced stock will have a more direct bearing on module procurement and transaction prices than headline policy targets alone. SMM outlook: Q4 pricing depends on new orders and the pace of legacy inventory clearance SMM views Q3 as a shift from persistent discounting towards firmer negotiations at low price levels, rather than a full reversal in the supply-demand balance. Higher costs reduced manufacturers' willingness to cut prices broadly. High-efficiency products and selected project demand provided support, but constrained project returns, legacy inventory and competition continued to cap transaction-price gains. The first priority in Q4 is the quality of new orders, not simply the volume of enquiries. The durability of the recovery will depend on whether European replenishment develops into procurement for new projects, project progress in Southeast Asia and other markets generates sizeable orders, and India's year-end demand supports sustained module destocking. Higher shipments for pre-Christmas and year-end delivery must also be distinguished from a rise in new orders, as some volumes will fulfil existing contracts. For Indian non-DCR modules, the pace at which US front-loading demand fades will be critical. Weekly limits and closer scrutiny of unusually large volumes could materially reduce concentrated stockbuilding. If eligible Indian projects and other export destinations fail to absorb the displaced supply, sales redirected into India, shipments diverted elsewhere and potential returned cargoes could intensify price pressure. DCR demand will remain more closely linked to Indian project procurement and inventory clearance, preserving the divergence between the two segments. Inventory composition will also determine how quickly individual products recover. Continued discounted sales of legacy stock, including 610–625 W modules, would sustain competitive pressure on standard products. If low-priced supply diminishes and projects are willing to pay for efficiency, certification and reliability, high-power and differentiated products could regain pricing leverage first. Even high-power TOPCon saw modest discounting at quarter-end, however, showing that technical advantages still need to be reflected in buyers' willingness to pay. For orders scheduled for delivery in 2027, expectations of changes to product-quality requirements and compliance costs may continue to encourage higher forward offers. Anticipated cost increases will not automatically lift spot transactions. Procurement schedules, legacy inventory clearance and project economics must align for price guidance to translate into realised sales. If demand disappoints, manufacturers and distributors may again intensify price competition for a limited pool of orders. Overall, overseas module prices are likely to remain differentiated by region, technology and order type rather than simply follow the rise in China's upstream material prices. Q3's clearest lesson is that offers can move first; new orders and inventory clearance will determine whether prices hold in Q4. Written by: Ryan Tey Tze Yang | SMM PV Analyst +60 127179370 | ryan.tey@metal.com

Three miners cut output in September On 29 September, CSN Mineração issued a material fact announcing a temporary cut in iron ore output at the dry processing plant of its Pires Complex in Ouro Preto, Minas Gerais, citing current market conditions, low ore prices and high ocean freight. Because of the cut and lower third-party purchases expected in the coming months, it lowered its 2026 guidance for own production plus purchases from 45.0–47.0 Mt to 39.0–41.0 Mt, and raised C1 cash cost guidance from USD 22.0–23.5/t to USD 25.0–26.0/t. CSN said the measure can be reversed at any time if margins for this ore improve, and does not expect a material impact. CSN Mineração produced and purchased 10.058 Mt in 1Q26 and 10.880 Mt in 2Q26, about 20.94 Mt in the first half. At the new 40 Mt midpoint, the second half comes to about 19.06 Mt: roughly 1.9 Mt below the first half and about 6 Mt below the second-half volume implied by the old guidance. Part of that 6 Mt is lower third-party purchases rather than CSN's own mines. According to its parent company, the ore being cut is lower grade. Freight moved higher after the Middle East escalation in late February and reached USD 43.38/t on 23 September; all three cuts fall close to that peak. Mineração Usiminas (Musa) moved first. It indefinitely suspended its Samambaia plant in Itatiaiuçu from 2 September; the plant accounts for about 30% of Musa's 9 Mt/y capacity. The company said Brazil-China freight had risen from USD 22–23/t to peaks of USD 37–38/t since the Middle East conflict escalated in late February. Private miner Itaminas then said its wet processing plant in Sarzedo will stop in October, with about 300 employees, roughly a third of its direct workforce, on a month of collective leave from 28 September. Itaminas exports about 90% of its output. Trade backdrop: freight up, supply ample SMM Tubarao-Beilun/Baoshan freight averaged USD 24.67/t in the first quarter, USD 34.06/t in the second and USD 36.26/t in the third, and reached USD 43.38/t on 23 September, the highest since the series began in October 2023. Fuel is one of the main drivers. Vale reported that its unit maritime freight cost rose USD 3.9/t quarter on quarter in 2Q26, with higher bunker costs contributing USD 2.3/t and spot freight volatility USD 0.8/t. Simandou is another thread to watch. Rio Tinto reported that its Simandou operation shipped 1.6 Mt to China in the second quarter and 2.2 Mt in the first half, with 2026 sales guidance of 5–10 Mt and full production rates targeted in the second half of 2028. At current volumes Simandou takes up little capesize capacity. Guinea-China is a long-haul trade, however, and as the project ramps up, demand for Atlantic tonnage will grow, so Brazilian miners may face more competition for ships. Supply on the Chinese side is not tight. Customs data show China imported 845.6 Mt of iron ore in January-August, up 5.6% year on year. SMM's count of imported ore stocks at Chinese ports was 145.5 Mt on 25 September, up 12.4% year on year, after peaking at 156.4 Mt on 20 March. With imports rising and stocks high, buyers have leverage and sellers struggle to add higher freight to the delivered price. Freight eats the FOB netback, low grades hit hardest SMM's MMI 61% Fe seaborne index stood at USD 94.05/t on 29 September, down USD 10.65/t year on year; freight on the same day was USD 40.26/t, up USD 14.37/t. Taking the index minus freight as a rough guide, Brazil's FOB netback fell from USD 78.81/t to USD 53.79/t, a drop of USD 25.02/t, about 57% of it from higher freight. Low-grade ore from the Pires dry plant and Itaminas' products are in a tougher spot than mainstream fines. Freight is charged per wet tonne, so the lower the grade, the higher the freight per unit of Fe, and the market discount on low grades is widening. SMM data show Super Special Fines (56.5%) at Qingdao averaged 539.4 yuan/wmt in the week of 25 September, down 25.3% year on year, while PB fines (60.8%) fell 13.7%. The SSF/PB price ratio dropped from 0.92 a year earlier to 0.79, well below the Fe-content ratio of about 0.93. The high-grade end has barely moved: the spread between SMM's MMi 65% and 61% seaborne indices is about USD 17/t, broadly in line with about USD 18/t a year ago. Mills: two coke rallies, margins turn negative SMM's grade-1 met coke national average has rallied twice this year. The first rally took it from 1,390 yuan/t in late March to 1,840 yuan/t in mid-July. After easing to 1,690 yuan/t in mid-to-late August, a second rally began in late August and lifted it to 2,140 yuan/t in late September. Each rally added about 450 yuan/t. Tighter coking coal supply in Shanxi has been an important driver. After a safety incident at a coal mine in Shanxi in late May, safety inspections were carried out across the province, and about 130 coking coal mines with 125–147 Mt/y of capacity stopped after 23 May. Restarts were slower than expected: 43 mines with about 55.2 Mt/y of capacity had resumed by 1 June, while 51 mines with about 55 Mt/y were still idle on 20 August, and restarted mines were producing about two-thirds of their earlier output on average. The National Bureau of Statistics reported July raw coal output of 340 Mt, down 10.1% year on year, and August output of 360 Mt, down 7.7%, a decline 2.4 percentage points narrower. SMM's spot margin for large-mill BF-BOF rebar has been negative most of the time since late March, the loss widened past 100 yuan/t after mid-July, and the week of 11 September averaged minus 229 yuan/t. HRC margins were still about 108 yuan/t in late August but turned negative in September, at minus 102 yuan/t in the week of 25 September. Output has adjusted only modestly: average daily hot metal at SMM's 242 sample mills eased from 2.465 Mt/day in mid-June to 2.388 Mt/day at the end of September, down about 3%. On 15 September the steel industry issued an initiative on self-disciplined output control and inventory reduction, calling for strict implementation of output controls and lower stocks. Higher coke prices have squeezed mill margins and lowered the ore price mills can accept. Chinese ore demand in volume terms has not shrunk much, with hot metal down only about 3%; the change is in price tolerance and in how cautiously mills buy at the margin. That explains the decomposition in Section 3: higher freight cannot be passed into CFR prices, so it falls on the miners' FOB netback. Brazil's smaller miners face freight on one side and mills under cost pressure on the other. Vale's freight moat Vale has not followed. Its second-quarter iron ore output was 84.3 Mt, the highest for a second quarter since 2018, and its 2026 production guidance of 335–345 Mt is unchanged. Vale's unit maritime freight cost was USD 22.0/t in 2Q26, which the company said was USD 10.6/t below the C3 route. That gap was USD 4.6/t in 3Q25, USD 5.9/t in 4Q25 and USD 6.7/t in 1Q26, widening each quarter as spot freight rose. Vale credits its long-term chartering strategy, which it says reduces both cost and volatility. A fuel hedge adds a second layer. Vale has hedged about 70% of its expected 2026 bunker consumption with zero-cost collars that protect above USD 80/bbl Brent; the hedge contributed about USD 100 million, or roughly USD 1.6/t, in 2Q26. The Vale quarterly reports and call materials we reviewed do not show it hedging spot freight with forward freight agreements (FFAs), so its edge is better described as long-term tonnage plus a fuel hedge. Vale's own costs are rising. On a stronger real and higher diesel and freight, it raised 2026 C1 cash cost guidance from USD 20.0–21.5/t to USD 22.5–23.5/t and all-in cost guidance to USD 58–62/t. Compared with peers that charter in the spot market, however, Vale pays roughly USD 10/t less for freight, and with netbacks this compressed that gap goes a long way to explain why cuts are concentrated among smaller miners. Limited supply loss; watch the product mix The announced cuts are modest in volume. CSN's guidance falls by 6 Mt, Samambaia has about 2.7 Mt/y of capacity, and the Itaminas wet plant is down for one month for now. Together that is under 10 Mt annualised, roughly 2% of Brazil's annualised iron ore loadings over January-September 2026 (about 378 Mt). SMM ship-tracking data show Brazilian loadings averaging 7.56 Mt a week in the third quarter, down about 10% year on year, mostly at the northern port of Ponta da Madeira. Cuts that only started in September are not yet fully visible in the loading data. Stocks of Brazilian-origin ore at China's ten major ports were 32.85 Mt on 24 September, down 23.6% year on year, and BRBF stocks were 0.77 Mt, down 61%. BRBF is Vale's flagship blend, so its drawdown has no direct link to the smaller miners' cuts. Those cuts are concentrated in lower-grade fines and small lump, so the effect is more likely to show up in the marginal supply of low- and mid-grade Brazilian fines than in the overall balance. Brazilian-origin port stocks are down 23.6% year on year and BRBF by more, but that mainly reflects Vale's flagship supply and has little to do with the smaller miners' cuts. Itaminas management expects to return to normal in November, and CSN says its measure can be reversed at any time. If freight eases, or if mill margins recover and mills accept higher ore prices, this supply could come back quickly. SMM believes this round of cuts by Brazil's smaller miners reflects freight and mill margins acting together. Freight up about USD 14/t year on year has directly compressed the FOB netback; two coke rallies have pushed BF-BOF margins negative and limited what mills will pay for ore; and with imports rising and port stocks high, freight cannot be passed into CFR prices. The three cuts came in the same month as the second coke rally and the turn to negative margins, which supports the two-sided squeeze reading. Whether cuts spread to more non-mainstream miners remains to be seen. Miners that charter in the spot market and sell lower-grade products are carrying most of this pressure, while Vale's long-term tonnage and fuel hedge place it in a stronger position on the cost curve. Announced cuts total under 10 Mt annualised and have limited effect on the global balance; the impact falls mainly on marginal low-grade supply and discounts. If freight stays near USD 40/t while mills keep up output discipline and margins do not recover, upside for CFR prices in the fourth quarter may be limited, pressure may keep passing to low-grade FOB netbacks, and non-mainstream miners could adjust output further. If freight eases or coke prices soften, the curtailed mines could restart quickly. Key items to watch are Vale's third-quarter production and sales report in October, the pace of coking coal restarts in Shanxi, and the SSF/PB price ratio.