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Recently, news of tightening lithium battery copper foil supply has drawn attention from the industry and capital markets. Some worry that tight copper foil supply will immediately drag down battery capacity expansion and even affect end-user deliveries. In reality, however, the copper foil constraint will not materialize right away, and the real risk window may emerge next year. What is copper foil? Why is it so critical? Copper foil is the "conductive skeleton" of the lithium battery anode, an extremely thin copper film only a fraction of the thickness of a human hair. It accounts for a modest share of battery costs (about 10%-15%), but even slight quality fluctuations can affect battery yield and safety. More importantly, copper foil supply is not a case of "having capacity means having product"—a plant may plan annual production of 100,000 mt, but the volume that can actually pass battery maker certification and be supplied steadily is often discounted. The supply-demand gap does exist, but pressure is limited this year In 2026, China's lithium battery copper foil demand is about 1.37 million mt, while actual stable supply is about 1.35 million mt, leaving a gap of about 20,000 mt (corresponding to the copper foil raw material needed for about 50 GWh of lithium battery cells). Against an estimated global lithium battery cell production of about 3,400 GWh in 2026, this figure is not large, and in the short term battery makers can still buffer through inventory, adding suppliers, and adjusting production schedules. Therefore, copper foil will not become a hard constraint on lithium battery production increases this year; the impact will be seen more in tight production schedules at leading suppliers, greater difficulty in placing last-minute orders, and longer delivery cycles for certain specifications. Looking further ahead, however, pressure will rise: the gap in 2027 is about 40,000 mt (corresponding to the copper foil raw material needed for about 100 GWh of lithium battery cells), and it may continue to widen in 2028. Copper foil demand growth is outpacing supply growth, and the situation will tighten further over time. AI copper foil is "distracting" attention, but has not yet stolen the race Recently, AI servers and high-speed communications have been booming, and processing fees for high-end electronic copper foil have surged to 200,000-300,000 yuan/mt, nearly 10 times that of ordinary lithium battery copper foil. This will attract leading copper foil makers to shift capital and equipment toward high-end products, but such production lines have high technical barriers and long certification cycles, so they cannot be converted at scale in the short term. In other words, AI copper foil will not immediately crowd out lithium battery copper foil capacity, but it will raise the "opportunity cost" of lithium battery capacity expansion—when copper foil makers make new investments, they will prioritize the more profitable high-end electronic copper foil. Key judgment: this year can hold, next year depends on positioning The impact of copper foil shortages on the battery industry is progressive. Stage one (this year): inventory and flexible procurement can still hold. Battery makers generally have stockpiles and can also adjust through multiple suppliers, so short-term production increases will not be significantly constrained. Stage two (next year and beyond): if new capacity does not keep pace and long-term contracts are not locked in early, production may indeed be affected. New production line certification takes time, and once the gap widens, spot procurement will struggle to find stable supply sources, and certain specifications may see "capacity exists, but no spot cargo" situations. Stage three (long term): upstream and downstream will become deeply bound. CATL and partners such as Huike will jointly build 400,000 mt of copper foil capacity over the next three years, signaling that battery leaders are shifting from "annual tenders" to "direct participation in plant construction." In the future, battery makers wanting to secure supply will likely need to provide funds, orders, and joint R&D in advance. Conclusion The structural shortage of lithium battery copper foil is already established, but in the short term it will not significantly limit battery production increases, as enterprise inventory and procurement flexibility still provide buffer room. The real test will come in 2027 and beyond: if copper foil capacity expansion progress falls short of expectations and battery makers have not locked in long-term orders and capacity in advance, a tight balance of "orders but no materials" may emerge starting in H2 next year, thereby affecting production release. In summary, the copper foil supply constraint has not yet become the core contradiction this year, but it is shifting from an "option" to a "must-answer question." Battery makers that position long-term contracts and capacity binding in advance will gain a clear supply chain flexibility advantage next year.

Goldman Sachs kept its end-2027 gold forecast at $5,400 an ounce despite this week's Fed hike, saying tighter policy will slow the rally but not derail it. Gold ticked above $4,355 on Friday on a softer dollar and lower oil prices. Goldman Sachs holding its end-2027 gold forecast at $5,400 an ounce despite this week's rate hike is the more notable signal here, since it suggests the bank sees the Fed's tightening path as a headwind that slows gold's rally rather than one that reverses it. That view sits against a backdrop where higher rates would typically curb demand for a non-yielding asset by increasing the appeal of yield-bearing alternatives, yet gold has still edged higher on Friday, helped by a softer dollar and a 1% pullback in oil prices. With 16 of 18 Fed policymakers now pointing to at least one more hike this year, the near-term path for real yields remains a genuine headwind, but Goldman's unchanged long-term call implies the bank sees that pressure as manageable within its broader bullish thesis, likely underpinned by continued central bank buying and ongoing Middle East risk. --- Goldman says the Fed's hike slows gold's rally, but the bank isn't backing off its $5,400 call. Summary: Goldman Sachs kept its end-2027 gold price forecast unchanged at $5,400 per troy ounce despite this week's Federal Reserve rate hike, saying tighter policy ( Goldman ditches one and done call, now sees a second Fed hike in October ) is likely to slow bullion's rally but not derail it Gold rose slightly on Friday to trade above $4,355 an ounce, supported by a 1% fall in oil prices and a subdued US dollar The Fed raised interest rates on Wednesday and signalled further hikes ahead, with updated projections showing 16 of 18 policymakers expecting at least one more quarter-point increase by year end A weaker dollar makes dollar-priced commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies, while higher rates typically curb gold demand by boosting the appeal of yield-bearing assets Market participants remain focused on developments in the Middle East and the broader path for global monetary policy Goldman Sachs kept its end-2027 gold price forecast unchanged at $5,400 per troy ounce on Friday, even after this week's Federal Reserve rate hike, saying tighter monetary policy is likely to slow bullion's rally rather than derail it. The bank's unchanged call comes despite a backdrop that would typically weigh on gold, since higher interest rates increase the appeal of yield-bearing assets and can curb demand for a non-yielding metal, even one traditionally viewed as an inflation hedge. Gold itself ticked higher on Friday, trading above $4,355 an ounce, as lower oil prices and a subdued US dollar offered support. Oil fell around 1% on the day, while the dollar remained soft after retreating from recent highs, a combination that makes dollar-priced commodities less expensive for holders of other currencies and has provided a modest tailwind for bullion. The move comes just two days after the Fed raised interest rates on Wednesday and flagged further hikes in the months ahead. Updated quarterly economic projections showed 16 of the Fed's 18 policymakers now anticipate at least one more quarter-percentage-point increase by the end of this year, a hawkish signal that has kept real yields and the dollar in focus for gold traders. Despite that backdrop, market participants have kept a close eye on developments in the Middle East alongside the broader path for global monetary policy, with geopolitical risk continuing to provide an offsetting source of support for the metal even as the rate outlook turns less accommodative. Source： https://investinglive.com/commodities/goldman-keeps-5-400-gold-forecast-intact-despite-fed-hike/

[Zinc inventory falls from 270,000 mt to 213,500 mt: Who is driving this round of destocking?] Since late August, China's visible social inventory of refined zinc has dropped from 270,000 mt all the way to 213,500 mt, showing a sustained pullback overall. Entering September, social inventory declined at an accelerated pace. By region, Shanghai and Tianjin saw the most pronounced inventory pullbacks......