IEA：Oil Market Faces Surplus as Supplies Boom and Demand Slows

【SMM Precious metals】Oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels a day, surpassing even the average buildup during the pandemic year of 2020, data from the IEA’s monthly report showed. World oil demand this year and next is growing at less than half the pace seen in 2023.

At the same time, supplies are booming. The OPEC+ coalition, led by Saudi Arabia, has fast-tracked the restart of halted production, and the IEA has slightly bolstered forecasts for output outside the group in 2026, led by the Americas.

“Oil-market balances look ever more bloated as forecast supply far eclipses demand towards year-end and in 2026,” the Paris-based agency said. “It is clear that something will have to give for the market to balance.”Crude prices have declined roughly 12% this year, trading near $66 a barrel in London, as increasing supplies from both OPEC+ and its rivals coincide with deepening concern that US President Donald Trump’s trade war will impact economic growth.

The continued decline in oil prices (Brent crude oil has fallen to around $66) will drive down global energy costs, thereby weakening inflation expectations, and may exert downward pressure on traditional inflation-hedging assets such as gold and silver.