November Copper Wire Rod Exports Continued to Rise, Future Trends? [SMM Analysis]

According to the latest customs data, in November 2024, China's exports of refined copper wire with a maximum cross-sectional dimension >6mm reached 6,303.98 mt, up 26% MoM and up 68.3% YoY. The cumulative export volume from January-November 2024 reached 57,600 mt (HS code 74081100).

In November, copper wire rod export volumes rebounded both MoM and YoY, mainly due to two factors: on one hand, many companies rushed to export and operated at full capacity before the cancellation of the copper semis export tax rebate policy, which partially supplemented export volumes; on the other hand, some companies ramped up production at year-end to fulfill long-term contracts, jointly driving the increase in November's copper wire rod export volumes.

From the perspective of export destination rankings, among the top 10 countries for copper wire rod exports in November, 90% showed an upward trend in export volumes. Notably, China's copper wire rod exports to Singapore saw a significant increase, rising from 533.54 mt in October to 1,033.98 mt in November, up 93.8% MoM and up 151.49% YoY, ranking third. Additionally, exports to Malaysia and Vietnam also performed well, with YoY growth rates of 546.85% and 268.69%, ranking third and sixth, respectively.

However, as of now, major copper wire rod exporting companies have fully shifted their existing Ordinary Trade orders to processing trade, leading to increased processing costs and forcing companies to raise processing fees, which has affected downstream acceptance and reduced order volumes. Furthermore, from the perspective of import profit and loss, the continued opening of the import window in December will negatively impact companies' export businesses, resulting in reduced orders and declining export profits. Therefore, SMM expects a significant decrease in copper wire rod export volumes next month.