US Economic Data Exceeds Expectations, Pressuring Copper Prices; Market Awaits US Fed Meeting [SMM Copper Morning Comment Dec 18]

Overnight, LME copper opened at $8,984/mt, briefly bottomed at $8,964/mt in early trading, and then fluctuated rangebound throughout the session, reaching a high of $9,010/mt near the close and finally settling at $9,006.5/mt, down 0.65%. Trading volume reached 15,000 lots, and open interest stood at 270,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2501 contract opened lower at 74,020 yuan/mt, briefly peaked at 74,150 yuan/mt in early trading, and then declined to a low of 73,910 yuan/mt before fluctuating rangebound throughout the session, ultimately closing at 74,090 yuan/mt, down 0.63%. Trading volume reached 21,000 lots, and open interest stood at 133,000 lots. Macro side, US November retail sales month-on-month rose by 0.7%, the highest since September, exceeding expectations. The US dollar hovered at highs, pressuring copper prices, while uncertainty over future domestic policies also weighed on copper prices. On the fundamentals, during long-term contract negotiations, premiums were supported at the lower end, but overall market activity remained subdued. In summary, the market is awaiting the outcome of the US Fed meeting and potential favorable policies from China. Before the conclusion of the Fed meeting, the market is likely to remain cautious, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate downward today.