International gold prices have benefited from lower US bond yields, but there is still not enough reason to be bullish. The Qianqi mark may be tested next week.

Опубликовано: Sep 29, 2021 16:59

International gold prices rose slightly on Wednesday as yields on US 10-year Treasuries fell, partly offsetting perceptions that US interest rates were rising faster than expected-pushing the dollar index to an intraday high of 93.891 since early November.

Spot gold rose 0.32% to $1739.43 / oz at 16 / oz Beijing time; the main COMEX gold contract rose 0.12% to $1739.5 / oz; the dollar index rose 0.08 per cent to 93.802; and US bond yields fell 2.4bp to 1.56 per cent.

Howie Lee, an economist at OCBC Bank, said: "it's just a technological rebound at the moment." At present, the reason to be bullish on gold is not good enough. We predict that the price of gold will reach about $1500 by the end of 2022, especially by then, when the plan to scale back bond purchases has been completed and the Fed is considering starting to raise interest rates. "

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note remains above 1.5 per cent. Since the Fed showed hawkish tendencies last week, there has been a sell-off in the US bond market, with investors preparing for higher interest rates rather than higher inflation.

St. Louis Fed Chairman Bullard warned on Tuesday that the Fed may need to take more aggressive measures to deal with Qualcomm (129.9,-3.58,-2.68%) inflation, including two interest rate hikes next year.

Bostick, chairman of the Federal Reserve of Atlanta, said that the US labor market is in a "chaotic" state, workers are dealing with child care problems and dealing with the spreading epidemic, but the United States is still on the track of full recovery.

At the same time, Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell said that the US economy is still a long way from achieving full employment, which is a key component of the Fed's threshold for raising interest rates.

Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst for OANDA Asia Pacific, said in a report that gold prices have broken through the $1740 support level and could test the $1700 mark this week if they continue to bet on accelerated Fed withdrawal.

SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-listed fund, said its gold position fell to 990.03 tons on Tuesday.

Senate Republicans blocked efforts by President Joe Biden's Democratic colleagues on Tuesday to prevent a potentially serious credit default in the United States, raising questions about whether bipartisan tensions in Congress pose a threat to the U.S. Economy.

Treasury Secretary Yellen again warned members of Congress on Tuesday that the federal government's borrowing capacity is close to drying up and that the current set date for reaching the debt ceiling is October 18, and she urged Congress to take action to avoid "serious damage" to the economy.

Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JD Morgan, said on Tuesday that he had begun to prepare for the possibility of the US reaching the debt ceiling, but he expected policy makers to find a solution to avoid this potentially catastrophic event.

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International gold prices have benefited from lower US bond yields, but there is still not enough reason to be bullish. The Qianqi mark may be tested next week. - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)