[summary of SMM Morning meeting] the market's willingness to receive goods has always been low. It is expected that the rising water of electrolytic copper will continue to decline today.

7.3 铜晨会纪要

Macro aspect: 1) after the quarterly adjustment in June, non-farm payrolls in the United States recorded an increase of 4.8 million, a record high, a better-than-expected increase of 3 million; the unemployment rate in June was 11.1%, falling for the second month in a row and better than the 12.3% expected. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States last week recorded 1.427 million, the 13th consecutive week of decline, but more than 1 million for 15 consecutive weeks. The Labor Department said the error in non-farm statistics fell significantly in June. 2) the total number of oil rigs in the United States in the week to July 3 was the same as expected and lower than the previous figure of 188. Baker Hughes said that US oil drilling companies cut the number of oil and gas drilling for the ninth consecutive week to an all-time low. In addition, US oil exports fell to 2.93 million b / d in May from 3.08 million b / d in April, down 4.4 per cent from a month earlier, imports fell 0.9 per cent, and total imports and exports fell to their lowest level since April 2010, the US Bureau of Statistics said. The central bank did not start the reverse repurchase operation on Thursday, as 70 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired on the same day, with a net withdrawal of 70 billion yuan on the same day. Fundamentals: 1) Copper concentrate according to SMM's understanding, Antofagasta has reached an agreement with Tongling Nonferrous and Jiangxi Copper on the supply of copper concentrate in 2021 and will supply copper concentrate to refineries in the first half of next year. In the end, the TC/RC determined by the negotiations between the two sides was 60.80 US dollars / ton and 6.08 cents / pound. According to SMM, Antofagasta and Japanese refineries failed to reach an agreement on the long order of copper concentrate from July 2020 to June 2021, or will reduce the supply of copper concentrate to Japan. 2) the price of scrap copper in Guangdong is 44300 yuan / ton ~ 44600 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of the previous trading day, and the price difference of fine waste is 2104 yuan / ton, which is 44 yuan narrower than the previous trading day. According to SMM's understanding, the supply of scrap copper in the market is still small, and the procurement of large waste enterprises is tight; waste enterprises with relatively little start-up can basically purchase raw materials to meet production, and in the high copper price, the willingness to purchase in large quantities is not high, in order to sell and determine demand. 3) the warehouse receipt for imported copper on July 2 quoted US $94mur108 / ton, the average price was reduced by US $1 / ton compared with the previous day, and the bill of lading quoted US $78mur90 / ton, the average price decreased by US $2 / ton compared with the previous day, QP August. The LME0-3 discount is $10.25 / ton, and the import loss is around 150 yuan / ton. Today, the overall turnover in the market is light, and the activity of both buyers and sellers is relatively low. The price comparison has not yet been opened, and most traders still choose to wait and see and do not quote the bill of lading arriving in Hong Kong in mid-late July. There are a small number of holders who have lowered their quotations slightly. However, the buyer is expected to have room for price reduction, the price of the buying and selling order is difficult to match, and the transaction performance is deadlocked. There is basically no offer for warehouse receipts, and there are a small number of high-priced transactions. In addition, recently, there has been a concentrated declaration of imported copper, which has also had an impact on the domestic trade market. 4) inventory LME copper inventory decreased by 2625 tons to 210700 tons compared with the previous period, and copper warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 624 tons to 36163 tons on July 2. 5) spot East China: on July 2, the spot contract for electrolytic copper in North China was quoted as rising 40 yuan / ton to 80 yuan / ton, down 45 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. On the spot side, the willingness to receive goods in the market has always been low, traders have accelerated to lower their quotations under abundant supply, and buyers are afraid of high consumption. Shengshui is expected to continue to decline today. It is expected that today's spot flat water-litre water 20 yuan / ton. South China: on July 2, the spot price of electrolytic copper in Guangdong province rose by 30 cents to 50 percent for the current month's contract, with the average price falling by 55 percent. Spot market: Guangdong inventory continues the momentum before the increase, there is no sign of a decline, coupled with a significant narrowing of the base every other month, so the holder continues to reduce the price of shipments. However, it is worth noting that after four consecutive days of sharp decline, the rate of decline in rising water yesterday has become smaller, and the number of people receiving goods in the market has also increased compared with yesterday. At one point, there was an offer of 20 yuan / ton of flat copper water in the market yesterday, but it was soon swept away, and the momentum of continuous decline showed signs of slowing down. We can expect that the rising water will bottom out today or next Monday as the arrival of Shanghai and imported goods is completed and the delivery date is approaching. Copper price and forecast: last night, Lun Copper closed at US $6093.5 / ton, an increase of 0.62%, with a trading volume of 15000 lots and a position increase of 4323 lots to 297000 lots. The Shanghai Copper 2008 contract closed at 49380 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.26%, with a turnover of 60000 lots and a position increase of 1986 lots to 130000 lots. Copper prices remained high and volatile last night. Lun Copper began to fall back after exploring a high of $6120 / ton in the afternoon, reaching $6047.5 / ton, but then closed again at $6093.5 / ton, still maintaining a strong upward momentum. Shanghai copper also rose slightly after the opening of trading last night, but has not yet broken the previous high of 49520. On the macro front, the US non-farm payrolls data yesterday increased by 4.8 million, higher than expected and previous values, giving a certain boost to risky assets, and the three major US stock indexes closed higher yesterday. However, as the non-farm data did not cover the US employment situation in the past two weeks, there were still fears of a rebound in the epidemic, so copper prices were limited, and safe-haven gold rose more than $20 yesterday. It is expected that today's outer disk is 6060mura $6120 / ton, and the inner disk is 49200mur49500 yuan / ton.