[SMM Iran Weekly Review] Billet Exports Diverge as Overland Trade Thrives Amid Seaborne Logistics Constraints

Published: Sep 28, 2026 15:51 (GMT+8)

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Iranian steel exports demonstrated a structural divergence this week, characterized by active overland trade and restricted seaborne flows. Impacted by tensions in the Black Sea, reduced billet supply from Russia and Ukraine prompted West Asian buyers to pivot toward Iranian origins. Iran recently concluded at least 15,000 tonnes of square billet at 420–430 USD/tonne FCA border, primarily destined for re-export via Iraq to Syria and Jordan; despite border congestion elevating logistics expenses, buyers remained willing to pay a premium to secure spot availability. In contrast, seaborne exports were hampered by sanctions compliance risks, shipping capacity shortages, and exorbitant insurance premiums, stalling large-tonnage liquidity (freight to Oman's Port of Sohar reached 18–25 USD/tonne). Mainstream mills have already booked production through late November, leaving only small prompt billet parcels to move at 410–415 USD/tonne FOB to neighboring Gulf destinations. Notably, slab exports ground to a near standstill as mills pivoted entirely toward the domestic market. In the flat steel segment, supported by the Shalamcheh border crossing, HRC flowed steadily toward Iraq at 540–560 USD/tonne FCA; meanwhile, the Caspian Sea corridor saw Russian imports effectively frozen due to an acute lack of available shipping capacity. Looking ahead to next week, if transit constraints through the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf port congestion do not ease, the FOB-FCA spread will face further compression or even inversion. Mill strategies prioritizing domestic sales and overland borders are set to persist, leaving seaborne FOB export quotes with limited autonomous upside and keeping the market in a range-bound posture.

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