After the rate hike, macro pressure was released, and the most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract consolidated above 410,000 yuan/mt [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief | Macro Pressure Eases After Rate Hike Lands; Most-Traded SHFE Tin SN2610 Consolidates Above 410,000 yuan/mt — September 24, 2026 (Thursday)

[Futures] The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 closed at 410,680 yuan/mt in the daytime session on Sep 23 (settlement reference price 412,760), with volume of 62,600 lots and open interest of 17,300 lots, down 4,582 lots on the day (driven by long liquidation). In the night session in the early hours of Sep 24, it opened lower and rebounded. As of 02:15, the latest quote was 411,310 yuan/mt, down 1,450 yuan (-0.35%) from yesterday's settlement, with a range of 408,190-412,690. Night session volume was 24,500 lots, with open interest of 15,700 lots, down 1,662 lots on the day (driven by long liquidation). LME 3M tin closed at $54,255/mt on Sep 22 (+98 yuan / +0.18%), with cash-3M backwardation of $199.59/mt, open interest of 2,584 lots, and volume of 683 lots.

[Macro] The US Fed hiked rates by 25bp to 3.75-4.00% on Sep 16 (the first hike since July 2023). The September dot plot showed 12 members expect one more hike this year. CME-implied probability of a 25bp hike in October was 54.2% (as of Sep 23), with a 45.8% probability of no change. The 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.957% (-3bp). The US dollar index closed at 100.29 on Sep 22 and rose 0.23% to 100.77 on Sep 23. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 5.29% in a single day on Sep 21 (the best since August), with AI and semiconductor strength spilling over into electronic metals. China and US economic and trade teams maintained close communication on tariff reduction topics. Expectations of Middle East de-escalation rose, and Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pipeline restarted. On Sep 22, WTI fell 3.03% to $93.17 and Brent fell 2.54% to $96.77. On Sep 23, US crude fell 1.23% and Brent fell 0.67%, with geopolitical premium continuing to unwind.

[Fundamentals] Ore supply: Production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa State have only recovered to 40-50% of pre-ban levels, with the rainy season's deep drainage and civilian explosives restrictions limiting output release. August tin concentrate imports in physical content were 19,332 mt (+88.40% YoY), including 7,395 mt from Myanmar (+253.55%) and 3,763 mt from the DRC (+54.07%). Yunnan 40% tin concentrate TCs were flat at 18,000 yuan/mt. Demand: August solder operating rate was 72.8%. Integrated circuits grew 20.6% and NEVs grew 21.9% (Jan-Aug), with AI computing tin demand rising from 19,300 mt in 2026 to 41,100 mt in 2030 (CAGR 16%). Smartphones fell 22.3% and solar cells fell 12.9%, remaining weak.

[Summary] With macro pressure easing after the rate hike landed, hard supply constraints at the ore end, downstream pre-holiday stockpiling demand ahead of the double festival, and the resonance of semiconductor and AI strength spilling over, the most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 is expected to consolidate above 410,000 yuan/mt today, with resistance at 415,000 above and support at 410,000 below.