SHFE tin fell 0.49% in the night session, giving back daytime gains as bulls and bears battle again at the 410,000 level [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM Tin Morning Brief | SHFE tin fell 0.49% in night session, giving back daytime gains; battle resumes at the 410,000 level — September 24, 2026 (Thursday)

[Futures] On September 23, LME 3M tin closed at $53,750/mt (down $720/-1.32%), LME inventory stood at 4,675 mt (+30 mt), with the ratio of cancelled warrants at 24.28%. The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract opened the daytime session at 413,960 yuan/mt, hit a high of 414,490, a low of 410,530, and closed at 410,680 yuan/mt (settlement 412,760), down 0.09% in the daytime session (close vs. prior settlement 411,050), with volume of 62,600 lots and open interest of 17,300 lots (down 4,582 lots on the day); the night session opened at 408,680 yuan/mt, dipped to 408,190, and reached a high of 412,690. As of 01:00 on September 24, it was quoted at 410,720 yuan/mt, down 2,040 yuan/0.49%, with night session volume of 29,600 lots and open interest of 15,100 lots (down 2,222 lots on the day). Night session LME volume of 15,000 lots was slightly stronger than SHFE's 14,600 lots.

[Macro] The US Fed's September 16 FOMC voted 12-0 to hike rates by 25bp to 3.75-4.00% (the first hike since July 2023); the September dot plot showed 12 officials expect one more hike this year, 4 expect two, and 2 expect no change. CME FedWatch probabilities as of September 22: 43.5% for a hold in October and 56.5% for a 25bp hike. On September 22, the 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.957% (-3bp), and the 30Y was 5.294% (-8bp); WTI was at $93.17/bbl (-3.03%), Brent at $96.77/bbl (-2.54%); the US dollar index was at 100.29. Richmond Fed President Barkin said in the early hours of September 23 that last week's hike stemmed from inflation risks outweighing maximum employment risks, and the necessity for further hikes remains unclear.

[Fundamentals]

• Mine side: Myanmar's Wa State production resumptions have only recovered to 40-50% of pre-ban levels, with rainy season mine drainage and civilian explosives shortages continuing to constrain production release; August tin-in-concentrate imports from Myanmar contained about 1,000 mt Sn, with H2 monthly average expected at 1,300 mt Sn. Indonesia's August JFX+ICDX tin ingot transactions totaled 3,610 mt (+3% MoM, +30% YoY), and the newly established ICOMEX commodity exchange plans to launch on January 4, 2027, with tin among the first batch of traded products. DRC's Alphamin had no new shutdowns in September, but the Ebola Bundibugyo strain outbreak in Ituri Province persists; Peru's Minsur had no new announcements.
• Yunnan 40% tin concentrate TCs were at 18,000 yuan/mt (flat), Guangxi/Jiangxi/Hunan 60% tin concentrate TCs at 14,000 yuan/mt, and the operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi was 64.94% (-0.94 percentage points MoM); August refined tin imports were 2,746.85 mt (+111.88% YoY).
• Demand: SMM solder operating rate in August was 72.8% (flat), with production of approximately 6,900 mt; from January to August, integrated circuit production rose 20.6% YoY and NEV production rose 21.9% YoY. Tin demand for AI computing power was 19,300 mt in 2026 and is expected to reach 41,100 mt in 2030 (CAGR 16%); over the same period, smartphone production fell 22.3% and solar cell production fell 12.9%.

[Spot Market] September 23 review: The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract shot up to 414,490 in the daytime session before giving back gains, closing at 410,680 and holding the 410,000 level; in the night session, it moved downwards after a higher opening, falling to 408,190 before rebounding slightly to 410,720, with the 410,000 level under pressure again. LME tin fell 1.32%, dragging down sentiment in the ex-China market, while a stronger US dollar index and a sharp pullback in crude oil further weakened macro sentiment at the margin. September 24 morning session outlook: LME tin inventory saw a slight buildup while the canceled warrant ratio rebounded to 24.28%, indicating that tightness in ex-China spot supply has not eased; the most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract is expected to consolidate in the 408,000-413,000 range today. Key judgment: After the rate hike landed, macro pressure was marginally released, but the night session giving back daytime gains shows increasing divergence between bulls and bears above 410,000. SHFE tin is expected to continue consolidating at highs in the 408,000-413,000 range, with the next directional move awaiting further guidance from downstream pre-holiday stockpiling strength and LME-linked dynamics.