SMM Tin Morning Brief | SHFE tin fell 5.09% this week, erasing gains; LME tin at $53,200; CME September rate hike probability rises to 87.3%; the 410,000 level under pressure again — September 14, 2026 (Monday)
[Futures]The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract opened at 418,900 yuan/mt in the daytime session on 9/11 and closed at 410,290 yuan/mt, down 13,000 yuan/mt or 3.07% from the previous settlement of 423,290, with a settlement price of 413,820. The intraday high was 419,790 and the low was 408,030, with open interest at 35,000 lots and trading volume at 140,900 lots. The night session that evening extended the weakness, with SN2610 closing at 404,090 at 1:00 a.m. on 9/12, down another 9,730 or 2.35% from the previous settlement, after touching an intraday low of 403,200 and a high of 411,580. From the 9/10 close of 425,770 to the 9/11 night session close of 404,090, the contract fell 21,680 or 5.09% this week.
LME 3M tin closed at $53,200/mt on 9/11 (previous close 54,115), down 915 or 1.69%.
[Inventory]LME tin inventory was reported at 5,200 mt on 9/11, up 45 mt from 9/10, with cancelled warrants at 1,425 mt and a cancellation ratio of 27.40%, still at a relatively high level for the period. SHFE tin warrants were reported at 6,277 mt on 9/11, up 704 mt MoM, including Shanghai 1,971 (-28), Guangdong 3,966 (+736), and Jiangsu 340 (-4). A small volume of imported tin arrivals combined with mid-week selling by smelters at high prices led to a sharp inventory increase.
[Macro]US August CPI rose 3.4% YoY and 0.4% MoM, with core CPI up 0.3% MoM, the largest increase since April. August PPI rose 5.4% YoY, both exceeding expectations. CME FedWatch data on 9/13 showed the probability of a 25bp rate hike in September rose to 87.3% (around 70% before the CPI release), with the market largely pricing in a hike at the 9/15-9/16 FOMC meeting. The 2Y Treasury yield stood at 4.63%, the 10Y at 4.97%, and the 30Y at 5.315% (a near 20-year high). Oil prices were disrupted by Middle East tensions, with Brent crude up 6.3% to $107.63/bbl on 9/10 and WTI at $104. On 9/13, relevant parties announced consultations on 9/14 regarding commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz; oil price movements warrant attention.
[Fundamentals]Ore supply: The pace of production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa State remains slow, with mine drainage and the rainy season constraining actual output to only 40-50% of pre-suspension levels, and a full resumption delayed to 2027. Indonesia's Timah exported 2,483 mt of tin ingot to China in August, while Indonesia's total August exports were 4,564 mt, indicating the formal supply system is recovering. The Bisie mine in the DRC saw no new suspensions this week, but operational risks persist in the Bundibugyo Ebola-affected area (6,186 confirmed cases reported as of 9/1, with a fatality rate of 48.6%). Peru's Minsur made no new announcements in early September.
Smelting: The average price of 40% tin concentrate TCs in Yunnan was 18,000 yuan/mt on Sep 10 (flat WoW), and 60% tin concentrates in Guangxi were 14,000 yuan/mt; the SMM survey showed the combined operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi rose to 68.14% on Sep 10 (the highest since June), with Yunnan remaining at a relatively high level and Jiangxi running low due to undersupply of scrap tin and ore; refined tin production in July was 15,290 mt (-0.91% MoM, -4.08% YoY), and cumulative production in January-July was 102,100 mt (-2.59% YoY), with raw material constraints still limiting production release.
Demand: The monthly operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises in August was 72.8% (flat MoM), according to SMM. With the traditional consumption off-season and tin prices holding above 400,000, downstream users purchased as needed and showed limited willingness to restock proactively; integrated circuit production in July rose 109.3% YoY, memory chips rose 30.2%, and electronic components rose 23.4%, with AI servers and automotive electronics supporting solder demand expectations; recycled tin production in July was 3,090 mt, and cumulative production in January-July was 20,300 mt (-11.66% YoY).
[Spot Market]On Sep 11, domestic spot quotes pulled back along with futures; in the high-price environment, downstream purchase willingness was insufficient, with spot transactions mainly based on rigid demand pricing and sluggish sentiment for chasing purchases. Overnight, SHFE tin fell below 405,000, and the daytime session on Sep 14 may test the 400,000 integer level. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US Fed meeting on Sep 15-16 on macro sentiment; support for LME tin at $53,000 remains to be verified.
![SHFE tin closed at 404,090 yuan in the night session, down 1.51%, falling below the 410,000 mark. LME tin was at $53,200/mt, down 1.69% [SMM Tin Morning Update]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/GgYmu20251217171750.jpg)
![US August PPI beats expectations, boosting rate hike expectations; the most-traded SHFE tin contract falls below the 410,000 yuan mark [SMM Tin Midday Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/gbiCe20251217171750.jpg)
