SMM Tin Morning Brief | SHFE tin closed at 404,090 in the night session, down 1.51%, losing the 410,000 mark; LME tin at $53,200/mt, down 1.69%
[Futures] The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 418,900 yuan/mt in the daytime session on Sep 11, hit a high of 419,790, a low of 408,030, and closed at 410,290, down 15,480 yuan/mt or 3.64% from the Sep 10 close of 425,770; the night session that day (closing at 02:30 on Sep 12) extended losses to 404,090 yuan/mt, a pullback of 15,700 yuan/mt from the high. LME tin closed at $53,200/mt on Sep 11, down $915/mt or 1.69% from $54,115 on Sep 10, with volume of 1,080 lots. Long and short positioning saw notable adjustments: bulls cut a combined 1,170 lots in the daytime session, while bears reduced net positions by 1,036 lots, but leading institutions notably added to short positions; open interest in the most-traded contract held near 35,000 lots. After losing the 410,000 mark in the daytime session, the night session confirmed the breakdown for a second time; watch for support at the 400,000 round-number level.
[Macro] The US released August CPI on Sep 11, up 3.4% YoY, in line with expectations, but core CPI rose 0.3% MoM, the highest since May; CME tools showed the probability of a 25 bp Fed rate hike at the Sep 15-16 FOMC meeting jumped to 86.5%-90%; the 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.9915% intraday and closed at 4.97%, while the 30-year broke above 5.42%, a 19-year high. The US dollar index edged up 0.07% to 99.122, holding the 99 level; oil prices pulled back from highs, with WTI settling at $100.05/bbl, down 2.37%, and Brent at $104.61, down 2.81% (the Gulf Cooperation Council and Iran plan consultations on passage through the Strait of Hormuz). The market has fully priced in hawkish rate hikes, with the key focus on the dot plot and the wording of Powell (Warsh).
[Fundamentals] China's tin social inventory shifted to destocking on Sep 11, and LME tin inventory hit a fresh stage low; the Ministry of Natural Resources announced the same day that China ranks first in the world in reserves of 14 minerals including rare earths, tungsten, and tin. SHFE tin plunged 3.64% in the daytime session on Sep 11 and fell another 1.51% in the night session, mainly dragged by expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes and stagflation trading amid high oil prices, with downstream solder and electronics enterprises turning more cautious in procurement. Ore side: Myanmar's Wa State exported 4,569 mt in physical content of tin concentrates to China in July (equivalent to 1,077 mt of metal, down 27% MoM), and Indonesia's Timah saw August exports to China recover to the expected range.
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![SHFE tin fell 5.09% cumulatively this week, giving back gains as the 410,000 level came under pressure again [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/gbiCe20251217171750.jpg)
