SHFE tin closed at 414,050 (-2.18%) overnight, with both longs and shorts cautious ahead of the September 11 CPI data release [SMM Tin Morning News]

SHFE tin closed overnight at 414,050 (-2.18%), with both longs and shorts cautious ahead of the September 11 CPI data release

[Futures] LME tin 3M closed at $55,680/mt on September 9 (+1.74%), with an intraday range of 54,710-55,800. The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract opened at 419,500 in the daytime session on September 10 and closed at 425,770 (+7,820, +1.87%), with a range of 418,550-427,970, settlement at 423,290, and open interest of 37,926 lots, up 2,949 lots on the day; SHFE closed at 414,050 in the early morning of September 11 (-2.18% from the previous settlement of 423,290).

[Macro] The US-Iran conflict escalated, as Iran's Revolutionary Guard struck a US military base in Jordan and established a "sanction zone." International oil prices continued to rise on September 10, with US crude up 3.91% and breaking above $100. US August nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000, far exceeding expectations. CME FedWatch showed the probability of a 25bp rate hike at the September FOMC meeting rose to 60.4%; the 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.839%, and the US dollar index stood at 98.79. Macro sentiment for the nonferrous sector is neutral-to-tight, with three major events overlapping: August PPI tonight, August CPI tomorrow night, and the FOMC meeting on September 15-16.

[Fundamentals] Supply: LME tin inventory stood at 5,155 mt (-105 mt), with the ratio of cancelled warrants at 28.32%, a stage high; SHFE tin inventory was 5,573 mt (-25 mt); Yunnan 40% tin concentrate TCs held steady at 18,000 yuan/mt; logistics remained constrained in Wa State, Myanmar, at the tail end of the rainy season, with tin concentrate imports from Myanmar in July at 1,077 mt (-27% MoM); Indonesia's August exports recovered to 4,564 mt, within the expected range. Demand: July solder operating rate was 72.8%, low for the same period over the past five years, with the "September peak season" falling short of expectations.

[Summary] The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to move sideways in the range of 410,000-422,000 yuan/mt today, with both longs and shorts cautious ahead of the September 11 CPI data release. Watch the 420,000 support level and the 427,000 resistance level.

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