Data: SHFE, DCE market movement (Sep 11)

[India Export] Indian HRC export indications for Europe remained at 590–600USD/tonne FOB India on September 11, with European discussions continuing at 695–700USD/tonne CFR. Some sellers mentioned 715USD/tonne CFR North Europe, but no transaction was confirmed at that level. Indian sellers held their position as reduced European spot availability, higher energy costs and expectations of seasonal production cuts supported regional mill pricing. Northern European HRC prices were around 730–750EUR/tonne EXW, while offers at 770EUR/tonne EXW continued to meet buyer resistance. Italian HRC prices were around 720–730EUR/tonne EXW, although trading remained limited as downstream buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach. Firm European domestic values consequently supported Indian export indications, but subdued spot activity, quota exposure and uncertainty over customs-clearance timing kept importers selective at the upper end of the CFR range.

[Turkey] Taking advantage of tightening market supply over the past few weeks, Turkish mills continued to push up rebar offers, though buying demand at these new price levels has cooled significantly. Domestically, Turkish rebar prices increased to 615–620 USD/tonne EXW (excluding VAT). Regionally, major mills in the Marmara area raised their ex-works prices by 5–10 USD/tonne to 640–645 USD/tonne EXW, although actual transaction prices remained stalled at around 615 USD/tonne. Two mills in the Izmir region lifted prices by 5 USD/tonne to 610 USD/tonne EXW, while a large mill in Iskenderun maintained its willingness to sell at 602 USD/tonne EXW. The export market mirrored this upward trend: a major Marmara mill hiked its rebar export offer by a significant 20 USD/tonne to 625 USD/tonne FOB, and its wire coil offer by 15 USD/tonne to 630 USD/tonne FOB. However, with export demand already very weak at previous price levels, transactions are expected to be extremely sparse in the near term.

Malaysian steel prices moved higher overall this week. In the flat steel market, mainstream domestic offers for S275JR HRC rose by MYR 40/tonne week on week to MYR 2,190/tonne (approximately USD 537/tonne) EXW. The increase may have been partly driven by the incident at Vietnam’s Formosa Ha Tinh Steel, which temporarily heightened expectations of tighter regional supply and supported Malaysian HRC prices. However, Formosa Ha Tinh has since announced the resumption of production, easing concerns over the disruption. The long steel market also strengthened, with 16mm B500B rebar rising by MYR 30/tonne week on week to around MYR 2,150/tonne (approximately USD 527/tonne) EXW. Meanwhile, C12D wire rod remained stable at approximately MYR 2,250/tonne (around USD 551/tonne) delivered, around MYR 100/tonne above the rebar price. Overall, HRC and rebar prices increased during the week, while the wire rod market remained stable, resulting in slightly divergent movements across products. Outlook: Looking ahead to next week, the resumption of production at Formosa Ha Tinh may further ease regional supply concerns, potentially prompting a modest correction or readjustment in Malaysian HRC offers. Nevertheless, as the mill’s production capacity is expected to recover gradually, a sharp near-term decline appears unlikely. Rebar prices may remain firm with support from production costs and mill offers, although limited end-user demand could restrict further increases. Wire rod prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly around MYR 2,250/tonne delivered.